Definition risk
Risk that one or more events or actions will jeopardize, slow, or prevent the achievement of project objectives
Risk = Impact * probability of occurence
Ways to deal with risks
- Risk avoidance: Lack of opportunity utilization
- Risk shifting: Insurance fee
- Risk acceptance: Risk awareness
- Risk reduction: Risk strategy
Principles of risk-conscious action
- We only accept controllable risks
- We do not deviate from established processes
- We are committed to the highest safety standards
- We only work within the scope of our compentence
- We only accept orders of appropiate size
- We ensure personnel competence and capacity
- We work only with efficient and reliable partners
- We only work under contract
- We do not allow ourselves to be blackmailed
- We report risk-relevant events without delay
Types of risk
- General management risks
- Operational risks
- External risks
- Customer risks
- Force majeure
- other risks
Examples for general management risks
- Investment policy
- Corpoate plannign
- Strategic risks
- Accounting
- Participation policy
Examples for operational risks
- Acquisition risks
- Market risks
- Calculation risks
- Contract risks
- Technical risks
- Procurement risks
- Investment risks
- Financing risks
Examples for external risks
- Environment
- Country risks
- Social and cultural risks
- Political risks
- Legislative risks
- Customer regulations
- Import and export restrictions
- Trade unions
- Currency risks
- Economic risks
- Market risks
Examples for customer risks
- Credit risk
- Contract risk
- Customer satisfaction
- Customer success
- Customer change
External factors on risks
- Laws
- Financing
- Market
- Environemnt
- User
- Public
- Authorities
- Politics
Internal factors on risks
Design phase:
- unclear project goals
- incorrect capacity assumptions
Contracting phase:
- Obsolete specifications
- incorrect quantities
Construction phase:
- Building ground
- Late reaction to disturbances
Operation phase:
- Loss on information from previous phases
- Weather conditions
Methods in the risk assessment process
- Systemized empirical data
- Creativity techniques
- Retrospective analysis
- Statistical analysis
Risk classification
Classification in a risk map according to its damage potential and probability of occurance
Cost of risks
Valuation as a combination of consequence and probability of occurence
Risk aggregation according to Werner Gleißner
- Cause aggregation: Risks with the same cause are boundled and their effect aggregated
- Effect aggregation: For risks with the same impact, the occuring causes are aggregated
Monitoring the risks
- Change of risks in the different phases of a project
- Project decisions lead to the emergence of new risk situations, their new individual risks must be identified, analyzed, and managed
- Risks that have not been assessed and classified as serious can suddenly become a thread to success
Monitoring the measures
- Periodic monitoring of the effectiveness of treatment measures
- Adaptation of coping measures in case of changes in risk potentials
