Aggregating: Weighing and Pulling Together The Evidence

Question 1

Purpose

Answer 1

Answers the question: What is the probability of the hypothesis (claim, assumption) being true given all the available evidence? Bayes’ Rule- probability of a hypothesis being true given the evidence depends on both prior knowledge and the likelihood of evidence.

• Posterior probability equals prior probability times likelihood

Question 2

Prior probability

Answer 2

initial estimate of how probable it is that the claim or hypothesis is true to start with, that is without evidence.