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Darren McCarty Flashcards

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1
Q

In 2023 what was the:
-Total Sheep number
-Ewe number
-Other sheep number

What was the change per head?

What was the change %?

A

-Total Sheep number= 3,722,754
-Ewe number= 2562378
-Other sheep number= 1,077,641

What was the change per head?
-Total Sheep number= -287,817
-Ewe number= -99,637
-Other sheep number= -185,113

-Total Sheep number= -7.2%
-Ewe number= -3.7%
-Other sheep number= -14.7%

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2
Q

List the top 5 counties with the most sheep in Ireland:

A

1- Donegal 363,632

2- Mayo 325,041

3- Galway 273,822

4- Kerry 246,920

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3
Q

What happened with the hogget throughout number in 2023?

What happened to the rams and ewe kill?

A

Hogget throughput fell sharply after record levels in 2023

Ewe and ram kill fell sharply

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4
Q

How many fewer sheep slaughtered in 2025 already?

What’s the average price /kg in:
2025
2024
5 year average?

A

Already 90,000 fewer sheep slaughtered in 2025

2025- €8.77/kg

2024- €7.75/kg

5 year average-€6.61/kg

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5
Q

What’s the forecast for sheep total costs of this year?

Feed conc

Total costs

Pasture and forage

Other overheads

Electricity and Fuel

Other Direct costs

A

2% decrease in sheep total costs

Feed conc- 7%-

Total costs- 2%-

Pasture and forage- 9%-

Other overheads- 1%+

Electricity and Fuel- no change

Other Direct costs- 1% increase

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6
Q

What are the increasing markins for 2025 forecast?

-Output value

-Input spend

-Gross margin

-Net margin

A

-Output value: 7%+

-Input spend: 5%-

-Gross margin: 16%+ €967/ha

-Net margin: 54%+ €378/ha

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7
Q

Increasing margins 2025 forecast: how much per ha?

A

€378/ha

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8
Q

List the religious festivals: (3)

A

-Ramadan

-Eid-al-Adha

-Easter sunday

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9
Q

2024

Irish sheep meat export value:

Irish Sheep meat export volume:

A

€400 million(-6%)

56,000 tonnes (-23%)

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10
Q

Irish sheepmeat exports: what remains our primary focus?

Where is there a further concentration in trade with the UK?

Where is international trade dominated by?

A

EU primary focus: €303 million: -4% yoy

Further conc in trade with the UK: €65 million: -3% yoy

International market dominated by Switzerland €31 million : -30% yoy

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11
Q

Irish Sheep meat export performance :

-UK

-Sweden

-Belgium

-Germany

-Switzerland

-France

-Italy

A

-UK: €65 million -2%

-Sweden: €30 million -17%

-Belgium: €26 million +5%

-Germany: €69 million +1%

-Switzerland: €25 million -14%

-France: €129 million -3%

-Italy: €16 million +3%

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12
Q

NI production trends- sheep census:

-Total ewes 2024

-Other sheep total 2024

-Lambs under 1 year old

-Total sheep

A

-Total ewes 2024= 930,447

-Other sheep total 2024= 45,572

-Lambs under 1 year old= 993,004

-Total sheep= 1,969,023

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13
Q

Number of sheep on farms by flock size: NI production trends :

-Under 100

-100-499

-500 and over

A

-Under 100: 11%

-100-499: 50%

-500 and over : 39%

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14
Q

More sheep exported than processed in NI

-NI sheep slaughtering’s 2024 and change on 2023

Hoggets and lambs

Ewes and rams

Total sheep

A

Hoggets and lambs: -9%

Ewes and rams: -5%

Total sheep: -9%

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15
Q

Whats production like in all main sheep nations?

Why has this been accelerated?

Any recovery ?

A

Production down

Accelerated in some by bluetongue virus

Little prospects of any recovery

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16
Q

What flock is at the lowest level?

Production wat forecast to fall by ?% in 2024?

A

Belgian flock at lowest level

2%

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17
Q

Sheep slaughter for EU 2023/2022 up to dec: EU

Increased or decreased by??

A

-6.9%

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18
Q

How many fewer sheep in 5 years?

What % fall in the last 5 years?

A

5 million

8.7% fall in numbers in last five years

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19
Q

What is a massave worry ?

A

Falling consumption

Consumption was falling faster than production.

Availability and price contributing to decline

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20
Q

EU Balance on sheep and goat meat self sufficiency 2024 forecast

A

89%

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21
Q

What is EU sheep meat markets focusing on supporting?

A

domestic
producers in
many
countries, e.g.
France

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22
Q

Imports of sheepmeat from New Zealand
reached an all time low in …

A

2021

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23
Q

NZ tariff-free quota split

A

228,254t

EU imported 52,077t from 114,127t quota

UK imported 29,103t from 114,127t quota

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24
Q

Lower volumes of New
Zealand sheepmeat allowed
WHO? make real inroads in
recent years in growing
export volumes to Germany,
Belgium, Netherlands,
Switzerland and
Scandinavian countries.

Growth in higher-value
markets has :

A

Ireland

reduced reliance
on French and UK markets
and increased overall export
values.

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25
UK sheep production forecasts
5.1% fall in Dec 2023 sheep census Mortality hit production hard in 2024 Export volumes were boosted in 2019 by Brexit concerns Lower imports from New Zealand over the last decade
26
Consumption pressures easing? Meat consumption per capata sheep % What % pop of UK are muslim hankey heads
5% 6.5%
27
UK is a key competitor for:
Irish sheep meat in key European markets Exports to Ireland mainly for further processing
28
UK sheepmeat import trends: Why is UK important?
* UK is an important market for Irish mutton exports * Free trade agreement with Australia a worry
29
Australia and UK Free Trade Agreement sheepmeat – When did this happen?
Australia and UK Free Trade Agreement sheepmeat – 31 May 2023
30
AUS and UK Free trade year 1 year 10 quanitiy
year 1- 14,726.03 year 10- 75,000
31
The global trade of sheepmeat is dominated by a few major players. Strange as it may seem, Ireland is the ?? largest sheepmeat exporter worldwide and is the largest net exporter in the EU Global sheep trade has increased by ??% since 1990 – varied from ??? tonnes in recent years
Ireland 30 1.4m to 1.5m
32
Currently over ???sheep in the world
1.2bn
33
Highest sheep pop in a country?
China 14%
34
Sheep meat is a ??? protein in many major markets
niche protein
35
Consumer preference varies hugely between markets: -EU, -UK, -China.
-loins in the EU, -lamb legs and mutton in UK, -lower value cuts (hotpots) in China.
36
Where will future growth mainly be in sheep meat ?
Asia and north Africa
37
Where is there a rising Muslim population? Who is responsible for growth in Asian markets – COVID-19 INFLUENCE? African consumption will be primarily what sort of cuts?
to bolster EU consumption China lower-value cuts but important into the future , Will be mainly met by increased domestic production
38
Supply channels in developing markets are still dominated by??
an unorganised supply chain
39
Who dominate world trade?
AUS and NZ
40
Whos NO1 in global exports? and what do they account for? Whats NZ exports like?
-Australia has overtaken New Zealand as No 1 global exporter – accounts for 50% of sheepmeat traded Australia’s flock rebuilding initially boosted by price -New Zealand exports limited by falling production and loss of market share in China
41
Who are dominating imports? What % of sheep meat go to these markets from AUS and NZ Whats US imports like ?
China/ Hong kong More than 50% of New Zealand sheepmeat exports and 30% of Australian sheepmeat exports destined for the Chinese market Chinese imports slowly recovering after COVID-19 United states imports grew strongly in 2024
42
What dictates price? Price comparison: -France -Ireland -Great Britian -Aus -Nz
Market dynamics -France: 1053c/kg -Ireland: 854c/kg -Great Britain: 832c/kg -Aus: 596c/kg -Nz: 435c/kg
43
Why is NZ production flatlining?
Productivity improvements from a low base have compensated for falling ewe numbers – cannot now compensate any longer!
44
Whats the stort term flock predictions for AUS? -Flock -Lamb Slaughter -Lamb Production -Sheep Slaughter
-A significant reduction in farmgate prices in the last 18 months has hit confidence with numbers expected to ease back again -Flock: 76.5 million head -Lamb Slaughter: 26.1 million head -Lamb Production: 621,000 tonnes cwt -Sheep Slaughter : 10.1 million head
45
AUZ What will lamb slughter be influenced by in the longterm? Ewe kill is forcast to ?? on the back of lower confidence
Lamb slaughter will be influenced in the longer term by a ban on live exports from 2028 Ewe kill is forecast to increase on the back of lower confidence
46
AUZ sheep marlet production: More favourable production conditions underpinned ?? carcase weights in recent years. Ewe carcase weights also influenced by what?
higher continued switch away from retaining sheep for wool production
47
When did IRE achieve market access to US?
Ireland achieved market access in 2021 – still have not exported product as factory approvals not agreed
48
What are challenges for the sector? (6)
Profitability – return on labour input Technology uptake is relatively poor Lamb consumption in Europe Age profile heading in the wrong direction 65% of farms have less than 100 sheep Attractiveness of dairying to younger farmers
49
What are threats to the sheep sector?
Misleading advertising and campaigns? Nature / peatland restoration Greater spotlight on management of hill / mountain areas
50
What are opportunities for the sheep sector? (4)
environmental benefits Irish sheep farming satisfies numerous goals in the EU Farm to Fork strategy. Favourable financial rewards in the next CAP strategy should help to sustain sheep numbers at the required level to maintain critical mass of production. Sheep systems can play a critical role in managing upland high nature value farmland.
51
What are the pillars for the farm to fork policy? (4)
-Food waste prevention -Sustainable food production -Sustainable food processing and distribution -Sustainable food consumption
52
What is an other opportunity for the sheep sector?
Cost of production Leaving aside the current escalation in costs Ireland has a lower cost of production than many other countries in the EU with downward pressure on numbers likely to continue in these regions.
53
What are the unknown variables in the sheep market? (4)
War in Ukraine Extreme weather events Global health crisis Availability of skilled labour
54
What are production factors to consider for 2025? (6)
Higher lamb mortality Lower confidence Slaughter of ewe hoggets Spring lamb declining Higher drafting of cull ewes Performance curtailed
55
What has shaped farming in Ireland?
Policy- CAP Strategic Plan 2023-2027 will continue to shape farming – greater environmental focus
56
Why are agri schemes important?
Direct payments as % of family farm income Sheep= 110%
57
CAP funding BISS: Total Pillar 1:
€3,642.50 €5,976.7 million
58
CAP Funding Pillar II Top funding area: Total Pillar 2:
Areas of Natural Constraint (ANC) €1,250 million €3,861.60 million
59
What are the top 5 acre approved applicant areas in Ireland? Whats the no of applicants in Munster? Whats the total number applicants?
1- Mayo 2- Galway 3- Donegal 4- Cork 5- Kerry Munster= 3,306 Total= 18,618
60
How much does the organic farming scheme cost in 2025? How much more in the budget? How many more applicants? What % of land is farmed organically?
€67 million +€10m in budget 2025 Approx 1,000 more applicants 7.5% of lands farmed organically by 2027 and 10% by 2030 Funding growth - Achieving 10% of UAA by 2023 under current support programme would cost in excess of €100m annually
61
Organic farming scheme – the sweeteners Paymenst for drystock in : year 1-2 year 3-5
year 1-2 300/ha year 3-5 250/ha
62
Organic scheme : Average payment New participation payment Minimum stocking rate dropped Organic capital investment scheme
Average payment  Circa €12,000 Organic capital Investment Scheme  Higher rate of 60% grant assistance on pre VAT price. Minimum stocking rate dropped - Fell from 0.5LU/ha to just 0.1LU/ha New participation payment - €2,000 in Yr 1, €1,400 thereafter
63
Where is there a strong take up of organic scheme?
In the west
64
OFS – who are the farmers applying?
-Approx 80% male : 20% female -Average age: 54 -13% young farmers -Average farm size: 47.5ha -Bovine 55%
65
OFS – Where to next?
In Ireland -5% utilisable agricultural area (UAA) farmed organically by 2025 -7.5% UAA by 2027 -10% UAA by 2030
66
2030 targets for sustainable food production : 4
50% pesticide decrease 50% reduction in nutrient losses 50% reduction in sales of antimicrobials 25% increase in organic farming
67
On-Farm Capital Investment Scheme -How much funding in CAP? -Whats the grand aid like?
-€100m in funding via CAP and approx. €300m carried forward -Standard grant aid of 40% to investment ceiling of €90,000 -Partnerships €160,000 per holding -Pig and poultry €200,000 per holding (reports will be higher) -60% grant aid for young trained farmers and women farmers -60% grant aid for organic farmers -50% for LESS equipment, 40% for mobile slurry tanker and umbilical pump. Investment ceiling of €40,000 and €60,000 for partnerships. -Application process will continue in rolling tranches – next tranche closes on 6 December 2024
68
Sheep Improvement Scheme -Whats the budget like ? -Whats the payment /ewe? -How many applicants? -Whats is a follow on from?
-Five year scheme with budget of €20m per annum -One-year contract with automatic renewal -Payment of €12/ewe or €120 per livestock unit -Historical reference figure -Current is higher of average 2014/2015 census ewe numbers or 2017 census ewe number -19,100 applications submitted - Follow on from sheep welfare scheme -Existing measures included and addition of a breeding programme requirement to purchase rams possessing genetic evaluations
69
How does the sheep improvement scheme work?
Select one Cat A and one Cat B measure *Hill flocks cannot select both these measures **Flocks with less than 150 ewes must purchase one genotyped ram once, those with over 150 ewes must purchase two rams over lifetime of scheme
70
Sheep welfare scheme -How much / ewe? -Whats the funding like? -How many farmers applied in 2024 -How many actions need to be completed?
-€8/ewe payment - Funding of €15m allocated in Budget 2024 - €8/ewe payment in 2024, €13 in 2025 -Cover over 1.8m of the 2.6m national ewe flock -17,167 farmers applied in 2024 -Two actions to be completed Category A – shearing and body condition scoring Category B – clostridial vaccination or mobile plunge dipping
71
CAP reform influence on land market Higher payments on more marginal lands?
– 85% convergence moving funds west * Higher payments for young trained farmers – Up to €170/ha for up to 50ha * Fivefold increase in Organic Farming Scheme budget – Average payment of €12,000/participant
72
CAP reform influence on land market Assumptions
Assumptions CRISS payments €7.8m Capping of €60,000 not applied Assumes all Ts and Cs are adhered to
73
Nitrates Directive - brief overview read
 Nitrates Directive introduced in 1991  Implemented in Ireland in 2006  The Directive sets a stocking rate limit of 170kg N/ha everywhere in Europe.  Covers organic nutrients - not to be confused with chemical fertiliser rates  Countries got a derogation to 250kg N/ha based on production metrics e.g. cropping type, rainfall, etc.  Now only two countries left in the European Union with a derogation and none at 250kg N/ha and Northern Ireland at 250kg N/ha  Water Framework Directive sets a target of good or high status waters in EU by 2027
74
Derogation turmoil in 2022 / 2023
* Member states have to submit a Nitrates Action Programme every four years (NAP) (whether they have a derogation or not). * This has to be approved by European Commission (EC) and then a decision is made on derogation. * At last review EC accepted NAP but decided to cut the derogation from 250kg to 220kg if water quality did not improve by 2023 * Resulted in sort of a phoney war over fighting to save the derogation at 250kg because of the precedent it set. * Ireland lost that battle and now the fight is on to prevent the loss of derogation outright. * Next NAP and derogation renewal is at end of 2025
75
Nitrates – what is desired and the complexities
* European Commission say water quality has to improve in moderate/poor areas by at least 1mg N/l * Teagasc say weather has the biggest impact on N leaching and that the south east is naturally high in Nitrates due to free draining soils, lower rainfall, more mineralisation and less denitrification. * All farming activity risks increased N loss * Farmers on these soils have to balance farming and not polluting rivers to the extent that nature cannot cope.
76
Nitrates – impact of losing the derogation on dairy farms
* 1 cow/acre is the traditional benchmark of productivity * This is too high under 220kg N/ha and 170kg N/ha * At 220kg, 100 cow farmer on 100 acres needs to get an extra 5 acres @ €400/acre = €2k or @€300/acre = €1,500 * At 170kg, 100 cow farmer on 100 acres need to get an extra 35 acres @ €400/acre = €14k or @€300/acre = €10,500 * Dairy farm businesses with high debt, high labour or high amount of leased land will struggle to survive without derogation. * All Irish agriculture is affected. Ag biz, dairy co-ops, rural Ireland, IFJ
77
Reduction in maximum stocking rate when did this occur?
1st Jan 2024
78
Nitrates doesn’t just affect dairying – e.g. tillage
Catch Crops If grazing you must: * 3m margin around the field – natural regeneration or grass * 4m margin at watercourse – add 1m of natural regeneration to 3m buffer * Need access to a lie-back area * If you have 7ac of catch crop you need 3ac of lie-back * Lie-back can be grass or stubble * Under ACRES cannot graze until 1 January * If grazing catch crops which were sown for equivalence under the crop diversification requirements then you need to plant 50% of the arable area * Buffer zones will not be included in the area
79
?? will be made available between 2026 and 2030 specifically to pay for climate action and nature restoration projects that are not already funded by the National Development Plan (NDP)
€3.15bn

Nutrition S (7 decks)

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