Empirical Evidence Flashcards

Lecture 3

1
Q

What’s expropriation? (contextual question)

A

The action by the state or an authority of taking property from its owner for public use or benefit.

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2
Q

Explain security of Property Rights (institutions Data) + examples.

A

-Protection against expropriation

0= high-risk expropriation = extractive state

10 = low risk expropriation = inclusive state (with rule of law, well-enforced property rights, etc.)

Ex: -Zaire = 3.5 (65% chance of expropriation)
-USA = 10
-if you have index of 0 there is no incentive to invest because your earnings are 100% likely to get expropriated

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3
Q

Index of 10 (security of property rights)

A

protection for a broad cross section of society= inclusive institutions

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4
Q

Index of 0 (security of property rights)

A
  • extractive instituions
    -very good for the elites within a society
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5
Q

Explain the Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2005)

A

-cross-country regressions of security of property rights
-found that the positive relationship between higher index and higher gdp would lead us to believe that inclusive institutions lead to higher GDP

  • Possible Problems: Potential reverse causality–> as you become wealthier and your country becomes wealthier they can afford better institutions
    -Third variable prime potential
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6
Q

Montesquieu on Geography

A
  • Warm climate makes people unfit to be governed by democracy
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7
Q

Explain the Korean Natural Experiment

A

-Korea under Japanese occupation until end of WWII
-soviet forces entered from the north
-US worried of complete take-over and supported separatist leader in the south
-in 1948: South korea and north korea created
-very different institutions
-North: soviet socialism, abolition of private property and capital, no market, decisions by the communist state
-South: private property, government used markets and private incentives
-they both has the same geography and natural resources and the same culture
-by 1980 the south was way more developed than the north

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8
Q

The Korean Experiment, explain why the North is worse off?

A

because ruling elite look after their own interests at the expense of the population at large (extractive institutes persist)

-this is the main reason by ‘bad’ institutions persist

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9
Q

Korea Natural Experiment–> problems with analysis

A
  • 1 sample size
    -compares market-oriented economy to communism
    -doesnt say which institution matter within market-oriented economy (would need a change in institutions, variation in types of institutes and no change in geography or culture)
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10
Q

Explain the Colonial Experiment

A

(picks up after “guns, germs and steel”)
15th century 1492 and onward, europeans colonized much of the world
-colonization transformed institutions
-very diff institutions in diff places: northeast america vs caribbean plantation societies

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11
Q

Reversal of fortunes

A

*Positive correlation between urbanization rates and GDP.

Rich civilizations in 1500 (mughals in india, aztecs in mexico, incas mostly in peru, ecuador, bolivia and southeast asia) are the poorer societies today
-less developed places in 1500 (north america, new zealand, australia, the southern cone of latin america) are much richer today
-countries that are rich now were the least urbanized in 1500

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12
Q

Reversal of fortunes question 1

A

-is this merely a result driven by the neo-europes?
-answer: no, correlation still holds when excluding neo-european countries

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13
Q

Reversal of fortunes question 2

A

were fortunes simply reversed because of the identity of the colonizer?
-British: liberal, protestant (US, Canada)
-Spanish: mercantilist (iliberal economy) catholic (peru, bolivia)
-Answer: No, think about the rest of the examples–> not dependent on identity of colonizer

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14
Q

Reversal of fortunes question 3

A

is the reversal of fortunes a ‘normal’ pattern? one that would have occurred even without colonization?

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15
Q

Reversal of Fortunes: Climate

A

No, in 1500 it was the countries in the tropics that were prosperous

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16
Q

Reversal of Fortunes: Disease

A

“countries in the tropics have more disease”–> so no

17
Q

Reversal of Fortunes: Guns Germs and steel

A

-Food package + agricultural tools only work at the same latitude–> thus worked in US, Argentina, Australia, but not Peru, Mexico, West Africa
-Plus, timing of reversal was 1800 (industrial revolution) no in 1500!
-must be industrial package not food package

18
Q

What do inclusive institutions entail?

A

Two functions (facilitating exchange + restrain powerful actors)
FOR ALL
- Unbiased system of law
- Secure property rights
- Provision of public services that level playing field
- Permit entry of new businesses (creative destruction)
- Allow people to choose their careers

19
Q

What do extractive institutions entail?

A

same functions as inclusive but only for A FEW elite (goal: extract incomes and wealth
from one subset of society to benefit a different subset)
Ex: Slavery in Caribbean plantations from Africa, in Indonesia (by
Dutch)

20
Q

What does reversal of Functions entail for Institutions and Population

A

-The higher the initial population density, the worse are institutions
-in densely populated areas, it is much easier to enslave people (or keep using extractive institutions i.e aztecs)
-in sparsely settled ares, with small mobile groups, it is much more difficult to enslave people, see the Virginia company example

21
Q

Explain the Virginia Company.

A

-In North America the first settlers tried to enslaves the local population (they were inspired by cores and pizarro)
-Idea–> capture local chief and us him to coerce the population into producing food and for the, but they never saw the local chief
-when this failed–> they attempted to enslave their own: Indentured servants (forced labor)
-ppl still ran away cuz it was so sparsely settled to it was easy to escape
-enslaving at the time was not possible
-So, to attract settlers the virginia company promised 50 acres for each family (inclusive economic institution)
-land was abundant due to low population density, so this promise was not a problem
-beginning of private property rights

22
Q

Explanation of Reversal of Fortunes

A

-sparsely settled areas were difficult to have extractive institutions
-densely populated areas (rich)–> extractive institutions–> poor now
-Sparsely populated (poor)–> inclusive institutions–> rich now

23
Q

Timing of economic institutions (reversal of fortunes)

A

Good economic institutions become more important when there are major new investment opportunities
-the opportunity to industrialize was the major investment opportunity of the nineteenth century
-good economic institutions allowed industrialization

24
Q

Reversal of Fortunes Summary

A

-it was consistent with economic institutions
-not consistent with culture, geography, climate or guns germs and steel

25
Q

Explain the natural experiment (mortality)

A

-settlers had high mortality rates in Africa/Asia
-Malaria and yellow fever caused 80% of european deaths in colonies
-this feasibility of settlement influences quality of institutions
-high mortality of settlers: set up extractive states for the short run, your likelihood of dying is much higher so its a “grab and go” mentality
-low mortality settlers: set up good institutions for the long run, you plan on staying
-these extractive institutions persisted even after independence

26
Q

What is creative Destruction

A

-Newer, more efficient firms exist and displace older, less efficient firms
-happens naturally with inclusive institutions