Judgement and Reasoning Flashcards
(21 cards)
Induction
A pattern of reasoning where one seeks to draw general conclusions about specific examples.
Attribute Substitution
We base our decisions about material on readily available information we believe is correlated with the information.
Availability Heuristic
When assessing a situation, the ease of which information comes to mind is used as an indication of likelihood.
Representativeness Heuristic
When making a judgement about a category, we assume that the member resembles the category and vice versa. (stereotypes)
Anchoring
Tendency to use the first example as a reference for all others (first impressions).
Covariation
Two factors are related in some way (eg when one is present so is the other). We only use part of the information and are guided by confirmation bias when using covariation.
Base-rate Information
Information about the broad likelihood of a case belonging to a category. People tend to ignore this information.
Diagnostis Information
Information indicating whether or not an individual case belongs in a category.
Dual-Process Model
We have two ways of thinking, a fast, heuristic based system and a slower, more accurate system. We tend to use system one, but we can use system two when we are given cues and the situation is right (no time pressure/distractions).
Deduction
Starting with a premise and asking what follows.
Belief Perseverance
Tendency to continue endorsing a belief, despite evidence that disconfirms it.
Confirmation Bias
Greater sensitivity towards information that confirms existing knowledge.
Categorical Syllogisms
Logical arguments that contain two premises and a conclusion that is either valid or invalid.
Conditional statements
If X then Y
Pragmatic Reasoning Schema
A set of rules derived from experience that define inferences appropriate to a specific situation.
Utility Theory
Each decision has costs and benefits. People make decisions by calculating the expected value of each option. The aim is to maximise benefits and minimise costs.
Critiques of Utility Theory
Very rational, doesn’t occur for every decision, other factors (framing, emotion) influence decision making.
Framing
Even if choices have the same utility, the way the question is framed (positively or negatively) influences the choice made.
Reason-based Choice
People make decisions when they detect what they believe to be a persuasive reason for making that choice (eg one day sales).
Critiques of Reason-based Choice
Emotion influences decision making, subject to heuristics (may not make the most reasonable choice.
Emotions and Decision Making
Affective forecasting (ability to predict own emotions) is quite poor. People tend to overestimate how much they will regret decisions. More research is needed in this area.
