probability trees

Question 1

Expexted value (E(x)

Answer 1

tak jak na menedżerskiej
E(x) = Xn*P(xn)+…+

Question 2

Variance (of e(x))

Answer 2

p(x1)(x1-E(x))^2+…+p(xn)(xn-E(x))^2

Question 2

unconditional propabilities/total porbability

Answer 2

P(x1) = P(x|S+)P(S+)+P(x|s-)P(s-)

probability of x1 happening

Question 3

Bayes

Answer 3

P(Sn) = P(E|Sn)/P(E)P(Sn)
1. start of a total probability P(x|S+)P(S+)+P(x|s-)P(s-)
2. divide P(x|S+)P(S+)/total probability = P(sn|e)

P(x|S+) = given that we are in expansion what is the propability of stock going up
P(S+|x) = given that the stock go up what is the probability of being in expansion

Question 4

exclusive

Answer 4

na wyłącznośc

Question 5

unconditional expectation

Answer 5

E(x)

Question 6

conditional expectation

Answer 6

E(X|S)

Question 7

conditional probability

Answer 7

P(X|S)

Question 8

unconditional probability

Answer 8

P(X)

Question 9

prior

Answer 9

the first one