What are stochastic effects in epidemics?
Where each event occurs by chance independent of one another
Why did H1N1 levels decrease in 2009/10?
Availability of NPFS in this time period
Which age groups is influenza A most common in?
(from highest) 6-15, 16-30, 31-50, under 5 and over 50
What is the incubation period for ebola?
2-21 days
What is the generation time for ebola?
10-12 days
What is the doubling time for ebola?
4-5 days
What is R0 for ebola?
2-3.5
What is the survival rate for ebola?
47-50%
At what age is the mean intensity and prevalence highest for ascariasis?
5-9, highest worm burden in children
At what age is the mean intensity and prevalence highest for hookworm?
82.4
At what age is the mean intensity and prevalence highest for trichuriasis?
5-10 for mean intensity and 20-30 for prevalence
What percentage of HIV cases are found in SS Africa?
67% and 91% of new infections are children in SSA
How many people were living with HIV in 2014?
36.9 million total
How many people were newly infected with HIV in 2014 and 2007?
2 million and 2.7 million
How many people died of AIDS related diseases 2005 and 2014?
2.8 million and 1.2 million
What is the global prevalence, incidence and deaths of HIV?
36.7 million, 1.8 million and 1 million deaths
Since the beginning of the epidemic how many people have been infected with HIV?
60 million and 25 million deaths, 2.7 million new infections/ year and 2 million deaths/ year
How many deaths have been averted due to ART?
9 million since 2000
What is the percent reduction in risk of transmission to sexual partners due to HIV suppression?
96%
By 2020 what will happen in terms of HIV?
90% of all people with HIV will know their status, 90% of those diagnosed will get sustained antiretroviral therapy and 90% of these people will have durable suppression. 73% of all people living with HIV will be virally suppressed.
What are the common causes of death in high-income countries?
CVD, COPD, cancer, diabetes or dementia
What are causes of death in low income countries 2011?
Lower resp tract infections, diarrhoea, HIV/AIDS, ischaemic heart disease, malaria, stroke CVD and TB
What are the most commonly diagnosed cancers?
Lung, breast and colorectal
What are the most common causes of cancer death?
Lung, liver and stomach
Which cancer has the highest incidence and mortality in low income countries?
Cervical > breast > lung (mortality only)
Which cancer has the highest incidence and mortality in middle income countries?
Incidence: breast > colorectal
mortality: lung> breast > colorectal
Which cancer has the highest incidence and mortality in high income countries?
Incidence: breast> colorectal
Mortality: lung> colorectal> breast
What is the most frequent cause of premature cancer death in men and women?
Men- lung and women- breast (richer areas it is lung and poorer areas it is cervical)
What were the main causes of death before epic transition (infectious)
malaria, tb and small pox. This changed to cancer, heart disease and stroke
What were the main causes of death before epic transition (cancer)
stomach, cervix and liver. This changed to lung, pancreas, colorectal and breast
What are the 9 major behavioural and environmental risk for cancer death ?(2001)
smoking, low fruit veg intake, alcohol use, unsafe sex, overweight, physical inactivity, contaminated injections in healthcare, urban air pollution, indoor smoke
What are the most common cancer death due to infections (2002)?
starting with most common: Hep B/C - Liver Hy pylori- stomach, lymphoma HPV- cervical EBV- NPC, Hodgkin and BL HIV and HHV- KR, NHL Schistosomes- bladder HTLV I- ATLL Liver flukes- Liver
How many cancer death were attributable to infection (2002)?
8.1% in developed countries of all cancer deaths and 26.9% of all cancer deaths
Describe the difference in levels of CVD for men and women
Always lower in women but get closer after menopause
Describe the difference in levels of CVD for different ethnicities
In terms of ethnicity (Caucasians vs afro-Caribbean), the rates were nearly the same (in 1980), but over time there was a difference in heart disease mortality. The figures were much higher for afro-Caribbean’s by 2000. The levels of white males being very close to the rate of mortality in black females
How much has obesity increased in America?
Rated have increased from 10% to over 30% in nearly all states in America
What are the major risks to health?
diet high in processed meat, high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose and drug use
What is the most common cause of death in UK (2015)?
Dementia and Alzheimers
What illness has been on rise since 1990?
Mental illness
How many people in Africa are infected with 1 or more parasitic infections?
500 million
How many DALYs are lost from NTDs?
56.6
List the 9 NTDs from most to lease prevalent in SSA?
Hookworm, ascariasis, schistosomiasis, trichuriasis, trachoma, LF, oncho, trypanosomiasis, dracunculiasis
How many species of schistose are there?
5 species which are endemic in 70 tropical and sub trop countries
Which country is most at need of schist treatment?
Nigeria > Ethiopia> DRC > Mozambique
Which company is donating 200 million tablets of mebendazole per year?
Johnson and Johnson
How many people are infected with oncho and what percentage live in Africa?
37 million and over 99%
How many are at risk of LF, how many infected and how many suffering symptoms?
1.4 billion at risk, 120 million infected and 40 million suffering from symptoms
How many are infected by oncho and how many have visual impairment?
84 million infected and 8 million have visual impairment
Which company committed to providing 2 billion tablets of DEC for LF?
EISAI
Which company is donating praziquantel?
MERCK
Which 2 organisations are aimed at treating NTDs?
USAID NTD- 450 million dollars and british gov- DFID- 200 million pounds over 5 years. Other donors are the world bank, Children’s investment fund foundation, bill and melinda gates foundation and END FUND
Name some success stories in control of NTDs
LF in zanzibar, trachoma in morocco, guinea worm globally and schistosomiasis in Egypt
What is the annual incidence and mortality of HIV?
2.7 million and 2.8 million
How often is cervical cancer screening done?
every 3 years then every 5 years from 50 onwards (35-64)
How many lives per year does cervical cancer screening save?
4500
How many HIV infections have been prevented by antenatal screening and treatment (2010-2015)?
1.3 million
How many breast cancers have been detected through screening?
15 000, 1.9m screened each year
What percentage of female cancer patients are over-diagnosed in breast cancer screening?
11%
How many women enter the breast cancer screening programme every year (50-52)?
307 000
What are the 2 types of colorectal cancer screening?
Faecal occult blood screening and flexible sigmoidoscopy
What is the most expensive screening programme?
Bowel cancer, then breast, cervical and infections in pregnancy