WEEK 4 - DECISION MAKING Flashcards
(63 cards)
kahnemans dual system approach
system 1 (irrational)
system 2 (rational)
system 1
quick
intuitive
heuristics
system 2
deliberate
slow
algorithmic
HUMO ECONOMICUS
the rational humans
dictator game
player given money and will give away even when person is taken away
ultimatum game
player given money
player can propose an offer to player B (accept or reject)
Irrational (intuitive) decision making
system 1
what is intuition
first impressions based on that you make a decision
what is intuition factors
feelings
heart
energy
soul
intuition vs rationality
psycholoists and pyschiatrists often make decisions based on clinical judgment (expert judgment)
clinicians use their intuition (combine education and impression)
paul meehl (1920-203) studies on
focused on clinical and school pyshcologists, psychiatrits, other physicians
clinical vs statisical prediction
a theoretical analysis and a review of the evidence
predicting academic results of first year students
experienced study advisors v simple tule
prediction by simple rule (mule investigated)
percentile score on SAT + perforomance on admission test
clinical judgment vs simple rule
clinical judgement was NO BETTER than a simple rule, even if the clinician has access to MUCH more info
statistical superiority effect
simple statistical prediction outperforms expert predicition
strong and stable across domains
evidence based practice
ability to verbalize how you reached certain conclusions to prevent making decisions from gut feeling
robust beauty pf improper linear models in decision making (dawes, 1979)
relationship counslers
marital stability = frequency of sex - frequency of fights (improper linear model)
simple rule provides a better prediction of relationship quality than the clinical judgement of experienced marriage councillors, even when have access to same info
rules and algorithms are..
mechanical
arbitrary
superficial
academic
clinical method is…
dynamic
meaningful
sympathetic
understanding
insenstivity to prior probablities
the case of linda
thirty one, very bright
what do humans have trouble reasoning
probability
normative and descriptive theories
normative: how we should behave
descirptive: how do behave
expected value (e)
value x probability