Kahneman et al (2011)

Question 1

What is system 1 thinking?

Answer 1

Intuitive.
Effortless.
Constant confirmation of the world.
Simple, we do not consciously focus on or analyse the task
suppresses alternative interpretations
Based on visual and associative memory

Question 2

What is system 2 thinking?

Answer 2

Reflective
Effortful
Monitoring and assessing the world
Demanding

Question 3

What are the biases?

Answer 3

Saliency bias: Is the diagnosis overly influenced by salient analogies? Past successes over-used? Comparisons?

Confirmation bias: Credible alternatives been explored?

Availability bias: do you have all the data needed?

Anchoring bias: facts v estimates? Adjustment methods?

Halo effect? Leader personalities

Sunk cost fallacy: attached to past decisions and legacy?

Loss aversion

Question 4

How can you avoid biases?

Answer 4

Typical assessment:

Facts on the table

The presentation itself: honest? Anything hidden?

Manager’s own interpretation, analysis, reasoning

I.e. using System 2 thinking

Question 5

Why is it difficult to avoid biases?

Answer 5

Because of System 1 thinking

Question 6

In what way does it help to include others in decision making to avoid bias?

Answer 6

Because we can use our System 2 to spot System 1 errors in the recommendations given to us by others.