4.4. The management of natural increase

Question 1

Uganda Case Study

Answer 1

• High Fertility in Uganda
• 3rd highest population growth rate in the world, estimated at 3.2 percent.
• High population growth rate is driven by the country’s high total fertility rate of 6.7 children.
• Because of a high fertility rate for a long time, Uganda has a very young population.
• Half of the population is under 15, which results in a high level of child dependency

Question 2

Causes of High Fertility in Uganda

Answer 2

• Early Marriage
• Low Educational Levels, especially among females → General low status of women
• Pervasive poverty
• Low Contraceptive use - over 40% of women have more children than they want due to lack of access to contraceptives
• Political statements that encourage large families (Machismo)

Question 3

If high fertility continues in Uganda

Answer 3

• Population will go from 29 million persons in 2007 to nearly 89 million in 2037. If high fertility rate transitions to low fertility population would be 62 million in 2037
• Half of the population is under 15, which results in a high level of child dependency, and creates a built-in momentum for future growth
• Number of primary school pupils will increase from 7.5 million in 2007 to 18.4 million in 2037. Uganda will need more schools, and larger government spending
• Increased pressures on the land in rural areas, leads to further urban growth. Rapid growth of urban centres will place a greater burden on urban housing, transport and roads, water and sanitation, energy and employment opportunities

Question 4

Solutions to High Fertility in Uganda

Answer 4

• It must begin with the education of girls. The Ugandan - Government must make a genuine effort to improve attendance and performance of girls
• Enrolment rate needs to improve but more importantly the drop-out rate needs to be reduced. It has been demonstrated in developed and developing countries that school lunches reduce drop-out and improve performance of girls
• By staying in school longer, girls marry late and reduce fertility - Educated women get good jobs and incomes and can make decisions about number of children
• If every woman in need of contraception has it, Uganda’s fertility would decrease by 30% and bring the average household from seven to four children per woman.

Question 5

HIVs / AIDs in Uganda

Answer 5

• In 1990, adult prevalence of HIV peaked at about 15%
• The government, President Museveni made AIDS an issue of importance, and toured the country speaking openly about HIV/AIDS
• Civil society responded and many individual people, community groups, religious organisations and NGOs took action
• The issue was discussed on radio programs, humorous but factually accurate magazines were written for young people, pop stars sang about the infection
• People living with HIV/AIDS spoke in schools, performed plays, and addressed groups in public places such as markets.
• This helped break the secrecy surrounding the disease and helped people to talk openly.
• At the turn of the century, there were over 5000 such community groups taking action in Uganda
• Participants reported changes in sexual behaviour including increased condom use and fewer sexual partners
• By early 1990s HIV infection rates started to fall and denial and stigma lessened.
• There was an increased openness about HIV, and increased acceptance of people living with HIV/AIDS. - - By 2001, HIV prevalence appeared to have decreased to 5%. However, recent debates about the active promotion of condoms threatens the progress to date.

Question 6

Singapore’s Population Policies

Answer 6

Rapid population growth (1950s-1960s)
- Control population growth: Anti-Natalist policy 1969
Declining birth rate (from 1980s)
- Promote population growth: Pro-Natalist Policy 1987

Question 7

High population growth in Singapore: Post war “Baby Boom”

Answer 7

• Population grew by more than half a million from 1950 to 1960
• Perception that if you have more children, you will have more security when you are old
• People had feelings of stability and calm after the war, so it was a good time to have children
• The baby boom brought overpopulation: Unemployment, Shortage of housing, Insufficient healthcare services, insufficient education.

Question 8

Government Strategy: Anti-Natalist Policy 1950s-1960s

Answer 8

The government feared that population growth could overuse its limited resources and slow down economic development. They introduced the “Stop at Two” policy which meant that couples should stop at 2 children and maintain replacement level at 2.1.
The government did this by:
- Legalising use of contraceptives and sterilization
- Legalising Abortion
- Financial disincentives if couples don’t stop at 2 children
- No paid maternity leave for third and subsequent children (have to give up jobs)
- No priority given to large families in allocation of government flats
- No income tax relief given to fourth and subsequent children
- Delivery charges in hospitals to be increased with additional child

Question 9

Positive impacts of the Anti-Natalist policy

Answer 9

• Number of births fell between 1966-1981
• In the 1960s (before policy) the total fertility rate was 6 children per woman
• Singapore reached the replacement level of 2.1 babies born per woman in 1975
• In 1986, Singapore’s total fertility rate dropped to 1.44
  Policy was effective and successful

Question 10

Negative impacts of the Anti-Natalist policy

Answer 10

• A reason why a small population/low birth rate is unattractive for Singapore is because of the attractiveness of it to multinational companies; due to the smaller talent pool.
• An ageing population was also on the rise as the number of younger people dropped significantly
• More older people would also mean that more tax money has to be spent on the elderly people
• Singapore’s defence would also be weaker
• Change in attitudes towards marriage and children. People preferred to remain single, marry later or have children at a later age. Women felt that their careers were more important

Question 11

1987 Government Pro-Natal policy

Answer 11

Fearing a loss in replacement of the population, the government adopted a “Pro-natalist policy” in the 1987. This was aimed at bringing population growth back to 2.1 children per woman. Couples were encouraged to have three or more children if they could afford it. Measures were introduced such as allowing the use of “Medisave” to pay for delivery charges of the first 3 children (insurance).

Question 12

Has the Pro-natal policy been a success?

Answer 12

• Fertility rose in the first couple of years but then dropped gradually again
• People still think it is expensive to have kids
• Single people still saw the benefits of being single
• Singapore still struggles with ultra-low fertility rates of below 1.4 - way below the replacement rate of 2.1
• Singapore’s total population was 5.47 million as of June 2014. Total population grew by 1.3% by June 2013 to June 2014, the slowest growth rate in the last 10 years

Question 13

Solution to slow population growth

Answer 13

ATTRACT FOREIGN TALENT
- Creates more jobs and increase productivity
- Boosts quality of workforce
- Attracts multi-national corporations so that there’s more investment and income
- Increase total population of Singapore
- Makes Singapore a more cosmopolitan country
SINGAPORE CAN DO THIS BY:
- Encouraging permanent residence or citizenship
- Relaxing the immigration policy to make entry easier into Singapore
- Increase subsidised housing
- Providing attractive education packages