Market and Risks Flashcards

(64 cards)

1
Q

What is Systemic (undiversified or market) risk?

A

Systemic (undiversified or market) risk ia the risk that securities value will fall due to political, social, or economic factors. Systemic risk may affect the whole market.
- Ex: 2008 Housing crisis
- Ex: 2020 COVID pandemic

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2
Q

Types of systemic risk - Market Risk and affected securities

A

All securities have market risk; this is the risk the value will go down due to negative market conditions or regular fluctuations.

TLDR: Risk of overall market decline affecting prices.

Affected securities include:
□ Common stocks
□ Mutual funds
□ ETFs
□ Equity options
□ Basically all market-traded securities

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3
Q

Types of systemic risk - Interest rate risk and affected securities

A

✅ Debt securities have interest rate risk, the risk of Interest rates going up and current bond prices declining is real. All bonds including zero rate bonds have intertest rate risk

TLDR: Risk of rising interest rates causing outstanding bond prices to fall.

Affected securities include:
□ Bonds (especially long-term)
□ Preferred stock
□ Fixed-income mutual funds
□ REITs (indirectly)
□ CMOs (Collateralized Mortgage Obligations)

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4
Q

Types of systemic risk - Reinvestment risk and affected securities

A

✅ This is the risk that reinvesting back into the security (interest and dividends) at a lower rate or value will yield lower returns in the future.

TLDR: Risk that interest or principal will be reinvested at lower rates

Affected securities
□ Callable bonds
□ Mortgage-backed securities (like CMOs)
□ **Any fixed-income security with coupon payments

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5
Q

Types of systemic risk - Purchasing power risk (inflation or inflationary) risk and affected securities

A

✅ The risk that the return of the investment is less than what things are worth today

TLDR: Risk that inflation erodes the value of returns

Affected securities:
□ Bonds (especially long-term, fixed-rate)
□ Preferred stock
□ Annuities (fixed)
□ Any fixed-income security not adjusted for inflation

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6
Q

Which securities DO NOT suffer from reinvestment risk and why?

A

✅ Zero-Coupon Bonds, T-STRIPS, and T-Bills

They don’t pay periodic interest (no coupons)
All interest is paid at maturity as a lump sum
Since there are no interim cash flows to reinvest, there’s no reinvestment risk

💡 Reinvestment risk only applies when you’re receiving interest payments over time that might be reinvested at lower rates.

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7
Q

Which securities DO NOT suffer from Purchasing (inflation) power risk?

A

✅ Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
Principal adjusts with the CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Interest payments also rise as principal adjusts

✅ Series I Savings Bonds
Earn a fixed rate + inflation rate (adjusted every 6 months)
Great for long-term inflation protection

✅ Stocks (especially common stock)
Over time, companies can raise prices → profits may keep up with inflation
Good long-term hedge, though not guaranteed in the short term

✅ Real Assets (via REITs, commodities, etc.)
Real estate and commodities (like gold) often rise with inflation
Useful in a diversified inflation-fighting portfolio

✅ Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)
Pay interest that adjusts with prevailing rates
Less price sensitivity to inflation-driven rate hikes

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8
Q

What securities primarily suffer from Purchasing power risk?

A

❌ Not Inflation-Protected:
Fixed-rate bonds
Preferred stock
Fixed annuities
CDs

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9
Q

What is Non-Systemic (unsystematic, unique, or diversifiable) risk?

A

A type of risk that affects specific industries or is firm specific.

    • Can be alleviated by diversifying the portfolio
  • Phrase to remember “don’t put your eggs in one basket”
  • Ex: Client is fully invested in Blockbuster, if blockbuster fails, it’s over.
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10
Q

Nonsystematic risks - Business Risk

A

the risk the company fails

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11
Q

Nonsystematic risks - Political (geopolitical) risk

A

The risk that value will go down because of instability or issues in a country (such as nationalization of corporations)

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12
Q

Nonsystematic risks - Default Risk

A

The risk a company defaults, not being able to pay interest or your principal. The following measure default risk:
§ Moodys
§ S&P
§ Fichs

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13
Q

Nonsystematic risks - Regulatory Risk

A

The risk that rulings in governing bodies may have a negative impact on the sector.

Ex, FDA or EPA pass down laws affecting food processing or waste disposal

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14
Q

Nonsystematic risks - Legislative Risk

A

the risk that changes in state or federal law will affect certain securities in the market.

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15
Q

Nonsystematic risks - Currency exchange risk

A

the risk exchange rates change (against the dollar) and foreign currency is worth less. Most common for foreign investment vehicles like ADRs.

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16
Q

Nonsystematic risks - Liquidity risk

A

The risk of not being able to trade a security without affecting its price in a big way.

Long term bonds and Limited partnerships suffer from Liquidity risk

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17
Q

Nonsystematic risks - Capital Risk

A

The risk of losing all your money invested in warrants and options due to expiration.

To reduce cap risk, investors should invest in high quality stock and investment grade bonds.

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18
Q

Nonsystematic risks - Prepayment risk

A

The risk of being paid back sooner without getting the change to rack up some interest. Most common for mortgage-backed securities. This type of securities trade based on an average hold time because as interest rates fall, more people refinance or sell their home.

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19
Q

Nonsystematic risks - Timing risk

A

The risk of an investor buying or selling at the wrong time thus not maximizing profits

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20
Q

What must you pay attention to when determining suitability for an investor?

A
  • Risk tolerance
  • Financial consideration
  • Nonfinancial consideration
  • And risks mentioned above
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21
Q

Strategies for mitigating risk - Diversification

A

Investing in different types of securities can spread the risk.

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22
Q

Diversification through - Geographical

A

investing in different parts of the country or world

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23
Q

Diversification through - Buying bonds with different maturity dates

A

Mixing short term, intermediate, and long-term bond investments

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24
Q

Diversification through - Buying bonds with different credit ratings

A

Buying a mix of high credit rating (safe) and lower credit rating (junk) bonds can spread the risk.

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25
Diversification through - Investing in stocks from different sectors
Investing in multiple different sectors can help mitigate risk by ensuring that the performance of one does not affect your entire portfolio. Different industries include finance, tech, utilities, energy, healthcare, industrials, etc
26
Diversification through - Type of investments
Investing in different types of bonds, stocks, DPPs, mutual funds, options, ETFs, can mitigate risk. □ Note - Smaller investors are the primary demographic for mutual and ETFs because those vehicles are diversified already in most cases
27
Strategies for mitigating risk - Portfolio Rebalancing
Depending on an investors age and overall appetite for risk, having a balance of equity and debt securities is essential to manage risk. Asset allocation refers to what percentage of equity is in each asset type for example, having 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds. Typically, as investors age, portfolios go from higher risk equity securities to conservative debt securities like bonds.
28
How can portfolio allocations change through time?
Portfolios equity can change through appreciation or depreciation. When that happens, investors can re-balance by selling off and buying in to the security they wish to maintain a certain percentage in.
29
Strategies for mitigating risk - Hedging
hedging is the act of protecting your investment (mitigating risk). This can be done in multiple ways, buying different types of securities, purchasing into different types of markets (sectors)
30
What are ways to hedge your portfolio?
§ Buy short and long term bonds § Invest in different sectors § Invest in different equity securities (value, growth, income, etc) § Invest in high credit (the best) bonds from the US Gov, T-bill, Notes, Bonds § To protect against inflation invest in high quality stock, REITs, commodities, or TIPS
31
What is Fundamental analysis and Technical Analysis?
Fundamental analysis - Decides WHAT to buy Technical analysis - Decides WHEN to buy
32
How does Fundamental analysis - Decides WHAT to buy?
By analyzing the company management and its financials (balance sheets, income statements, the industry, earnings, etc) and compare with competitors. Past financials are also reviewed to ensure the company is heading in the right direction The overall economy and industry conditions are taken into consideration
33
Fundamental analysis - Balance sheet?
A balance sheet gives financial status of a company at a given point of time. □ Note - SIE tests how the company making moves (IE buying equipment, paying off debt, getting a loan, etc) affect the balance sheet. Assets must balance out the liabilities and shareholder equity.
34
What is included within the Balance Sheet - Assets
Current assets - Owned items easily converted to cash within the next 12 months, includes cash, marketable securities, inventory, accounts receivable, and prepaid expenses like rent. Fixed assets - Owned items that are NOT easily converted to cash such as equipment, property, furniture. Most fixed assets can depreciate over time due to being old or outdated, they will be documented under accumulated depreciation which is subtracted from assets. EXCEPT LAND Intangible assets - Owned items that don’t have physical properties such as patents, trademarks, formulas, copyrights, goodwill. Goodwill is the amount over paid when purchasing another company.
35
What is included within the Balance Sheet - Liabilities
Current liabilities - debt obligations that are due to pay in the next 12 months. This includes accounts payable (company bills), wages, debt securities due to mature, short-term notes payable, declared cash dividends, and taxes Long term liabilities - debt obligations due to pay after 12 months, this includes mortgages, bank loans, outstanding corp bonds, long term notes.
36
What is included within the Balance Sheet - Stockholder equity
What the company is worth is the difference from the assets - liabilities Par value of common stock - the arbitrary amount a company uses for bookkeeping purposes. If a company issues $1 million in shares (common stock) at $1 PAR, the Par value on the stockholder's equity portion of the balance sheet is $1 million. Par value of Preferred stock - The value the company uses for bookkeeping purposes, (usually $100 but can be $25 or $50). If a company issues 10 thousand shares at $100 par, the value of the shareholders stock equity is $1 million (10000 x 100 = 1,000,000) Additional paid in capital - Also known as capital in excess of Par, the amount over par value received during initial IPO or secondary offering. This is paid to the company directly Ex if common stock is $1 but they receive $7, the $6 is the additional paid in capital PAR value is the accounting floor, investors pay based on perceived value, the excess goes to APIC. Treasury stock - Stock that was outstanding in the market but was repurchased by the company Retained earnings - The amount of net earnings after paying out dividends (if any) to its shareholders
37
Fundamental analysis - Income statements
Documents how profitable a company is. It shows revenue and expenses during a period of time (monthly, quarterly, yearly) Includes □ Net Sales - Cost of goods sold (EBITDA) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. □ Operating expenses (includes depreciation) - Operating profit (EBIT) earnings before interest and taxes □ Interest expenses - taxable income (EAT) earnings after taxes □ Preferred dividends - Earnings available to common shareholders □ Common dividend - Retained earnings
38
How does technical analysis - Decides WHEN to buy?
Tech analysis looks to identify patterns based on past performance to help determine future performance of specific industries or securities.
39
What patterns are reviewed during a technical analysis
§ Trading volume § Market sentiment § Market indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones 100, etc) § Options volatility § Market momentum § Available funds § Index futures § New highs and lows § Advanced decline ratio § Odd lot volume § Short interest § Put to call ratios
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BLANK decides WHAT to BUY Technical vs Fundamental
Fundamental analysis
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BLANK decides WHEN to BUY Technical vs Fundamental
Technical analysis
42
What are Benchmarks and Indices?
Such as NASDAQ or DOW JONES (DJIA) are performance indicators (indexes) that are used as benchmarks for individual or a group of investments. Indices can be narrow or broad based
43
Narrow vs Broad based Indices (indexes)
Narrow - provide information on a specific industry such as transportation or finance Broad based - measure information on the overall market
44
What are examples of broad-based indices?
□ Ex of Broad based Indexes ® S&P 500 index - includes top 500 large cap companies (corps that have market cap over 10 billion) ® Wilshire 5000 - largest of all stock indexes, includes over 5000 listed stocks ® Russel 2000 index - an index of small cap companies (more than 300 million but less than 10 billion) ® Lipper Indexes - Tracks the financial performance of the largest mutual funds based on strategy. Ex Large -cap growth, mid-cap value, international fund, etc) ® Dow jones Composite average - Tracks 65 of the largest industrial sector stocks. ◊ DJIA - tracks 30 stocks of the transportation industry, most commonly used as an indicator of the market in general ◊ DJTA - DJ Transportation Average - tracks 20 stocks from the transportation sector ◊ DJUA - tracks 15 companies from the utility sector
45
What is the Dow theory?
If the DJIA and DJTA are trending in the same direction (up/down) that is a good indicator of the market overall. If companies are producing products, they need to transport them.
46
What are the 4 stages of the business cycle?
Is the natural rise and fall of consumer goods and services (GDP) that occur over time.
47
Business cycle - Expansion
Expansion - may also be known as the recovery phase, when the demand for goods and services is higher, property values are increasing, and the market is considered bullish (values are going up).
48
Business cycle - Peak
Peak - the peak of expansion happens before the market starts to contract
49
Business cycle - Contraction
Contraction - demand for goods and services are down, more and more companies default on their bonds and consumer debt is up.
50
Business cycle - Through
Through - the lowest part of the contraction cycle before the market starts recovering.
51
Bullish vs Bearish
An investor can perceive the whole market, certain sectors, or individual companies as bullish or bearish.
52
What are some bullish strategies?
Bullish strats - Buying common stock, selling uncovered put options, buying call options, buying mutual funds.
53
What are some bearish strategies?
Bearish strats - selling short individual stocks, buying bearish funds (funds that increase during a bearish market), buying inverse ETFs (go in the opposite direction of indexes), selling uncovered calls, buying put options, etc
54
How does the supply of money affect the market?
If supply is higher than average, interest rates go down, people borrow more, and people spend more.
55
What are the negatives of high money supply?
○ The negatives here include inflation (prices go up) and weakening of the US dollar in relation to foreign currency.
56
Who balances the Money supply?
The Federal reserve board (the Fed or FRB) balances the flow by controlling the supply of money and ensuring a slow and steady increase The fed controls monetary policy, government politicians (senate, house, prez) control the fiscal policy.
57
Fiscal vs Monetary policy
§ Monetary policy = money supply, interest rates § Fiscal supply = gov borrowing, gov spending, taxes collected
58
What can change in the money supply affect?
Can affect economic growth, inflation, and the state of the us dollar vs foreign currency. There are two strategies, easing the money supply (easy money) or tightening the money supply.
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How does easing/tightening the money supply affect - the economy?
Easing helps the US get out of a recession by allowing consumers to borrow more at lower interest rates. Higher interest rates can slow down economic growth since consumers aren't spending as much, this also leads to more small business failure.
60
How does easing/tightening the money supply affect - the market?
With more money, investors can invest more, businesses can also borrow at a lower interest rate thus increasing profits. (debt to revenue is down). Market becomes Bullish Higher interest rates mean investors don’t have as much cash to invest and companies borrow at higher rates thus reporting lower profits. This leads to a Bearish market.
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How does easing/tightening the money supply affect - inflation?
Lower interest rates lead to inflation. Companies raise prices based on consumer spending. Tighter money supply can help curve high inflation.
62
How does easing/tightening the money supply affect - strength of the us dollar?
The value of the dollar goes down. Foreign exports increase because foreign companies can buy more US goods, adversely foreign imports decrease because the US dollar lost value, we can afford less. The value of the dollar increases, foreign exports are lessened because US goods are more expensive, foreign imports increase because we can buy more thanks to supply and demand of US dollar.
63
How can the fed ease the money supply thus reducing interest rates?
Easing money supply can lead to lowered interest rates, the fed does this by ○ Buying US gov securities in the open market ○ Lowering the discount rate, reserve requirements, and/or RegT (changing REGT is not likely) ○ Printing more US currency
64
How can the fed tighten the money supply thus increasing interest rates?
Tightening money supply is key to slowing down economic growth and increasing interest rates, they do this by Selling US gov securities (pulling money out of the baking system) Increasing discount rate, increasing reserve requirements, and or raising REG T.