Market and Risks Flashcards
(64 cards)
What is Systemic (undiversified or market) risk?
Systemic (undiversified or market) risk ia the risk that securities value will fall due to political, social, or economic factors. Systemic risk may affect the whole market.
- Ex: 2008 Housing crisis
- Ex: 2020 COVID pandemic
Types of systemic risk - Market Risk and affected securities
All securities have market risk; this is the risk the value will go down due to negative market conditions or regular fluctuations.
TLDR: Risk of overall market decline affecting prices.
Affected securities include:
□ Common stocks
□ Mutual funds
□ ETFs
□ Equity options
□ Basically all market-traded securities
Types of systemic risk - Interest rate risk and affected securities
✅ Debt securities have interest rate risk, the risk of Interest rates going up and current bond prices declining is real. All bonds including zero rate bonds have intertest rate risk
TLDR: Risk of rising interest rates causing outstanding bond prices to fall.
Affected securities include:
□ Bonds (especially long-term)
□ Preferred stock
□ Fixed-income mutual funds
□ REITs (indirectly)
□ CMOs (Collateralized Mortgage Obligations)
Types of systemic risk - Reinvestment risk and affected securities
✅ This is the risk that reinvesting back into the security (interest and dividends) at a lower rate or value will yield lower returns in the future.
TLDR: Risk that interest or principal will be reinvested at lower rates
Affected securities
□ Callable bonds
□ Mortgage-backed securities (like CMOs)
□ **Any fixed-income security with coupon payments
Types of systemic risk - Purchasing power risk (inflation or inflationary) risk and affected securities
✅ The risk that the return of the investment is less than what things are worth today
TLDR: Risk that inflation erodes the value of returns
Affected securities:
□ Bonds (especially long-term, fixed-rate)
□ Preferred stock
□ Annuities (fixed)
□ Any fixed-income security not adjusted for inflation
Which securities DO NOT suffer from reinvestment risk and why?
✅ Zero-Coupon Bonds, T-STRIPS, and T-Bills
They don’t pay periodic interest (no coupons)
All interest is paid at maturity as a lump sum
Since there are no interim cash flows to reinvest, there’s no reinvestment risk
💡 Reinvestment risk only applies when you’re receiving interest payments over time that might be reinvested at lower rates.
Which securities DO NOT suffer from Purchasing (inflation) power risk?
✅ Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
Principal adjusts with the CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Interest payments also rise as principal adjusts
✅ Series I Savings Bonds
Earn a fixed rate + inflation rate (adjusted every 6 months)
Great for long-term inflation protection
✅ Stocks (especially common stock)
Over time, companies can raise prices → profits may keep up with inflation
Good long-term hedge, though not guaranteed in the short term
✅ Real Assets (via REITs, commodities, etc.)
Real estate and commodities (like gold) often rise with inflation
Useful in a diversified inflation-fighting portfolio
✅ Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)
Pay interest that adjusts with prevailing rates
Less price sensitivity to inflation-driven rate hikes
What securities primarily suffer from Purchasing power risk?
❌ Not Inflation-Protected:
Fixed-rate bonds
Preferred stock
Fixed annuities
CDs
What is Non-Systemic (unsystematic, unique, or diversifiable) risk?
A type of risk that affects specific industries or is firm specific.
- Can be alleviated by diversifying the portfolio
- Phrase to remember “don’t put your eggs in one basket”
- Ex: Client is fully invested in Blockbuster, if blockbuster fails, it’s over.
Nonsystematic risks - Business Risk
the risk the company fails
Nonsystematic risks - Political (geopolitical) risk
The risk that value will go down because of instability or issues in a country (such as nationalization of corporations)
Nonsystematic risks - Default Risk
The risk a company defaults, not being able to pay interest or your principal. The following measure default risk:
§ Moodys
§ S&P
§ Fichs
Nonsystematic risks - Regulatory Risk
The risk that rulings in governing bodies may have a negative impact on the sector.
Ex, FDA or EPA pass down laws affecting food processing or waste disposal
Nonsystematic risks - Legislative Risk
the risk that changes in state or federal law will affect certain securities in the market.
Nonsystematic risks - Currency exchange risk
the risk exchange rates change (against the dollar) and foreign currency is worth less. Most common for foreign investment vehicles like ADRs.
Nonsystematic risks - Liquidity risk
The risk of not being able to trade a security without affecting its price in a big way.
Long term bonds and Limited partnerships suffer from Liquidity risk
Nonsystematic risks - Capital Risk
The risk of losing all your money invested in warrants and options due to expiration.
To reduce cap risk, investors should invest in high quality stock and investment grade bonds.
Nonsystematic risks - Prepayment risk
The risk of being paid back sooner without getting the change to rack up some interest. Most common for mortgage-backed securities. This type of securities trade based on an average hold time because as interest rates fall, more people refinance or sell their home.
Nonsystematic risks - Timing risk
The risk of an investor buying or selling at the wrong time thus not maximizing profits
What must you pay attention to when determining suitability for an investor?
- Risk tolerance
- Financial consideration
- Nonfinancial consideration
- And risks mentioned above
Strategies for mitigating risk - Diversification
Investing in different types of securities can spread the risk.
Diversification through - Geographical
investing in different parts of the country or world
Diversification through - Buying bonds with different maturity dates
Mixing short term, intermediate, and long-term bond investments
Diversification through - Buying bonds with different credit ratings
Buying a mix of high credit rating (safe) and lower credit rating (junk) bonds can spread the risk.