Chapter 13- Testing CAPM/Anomalies Flashcards
What does CAPM tell us?
Higher beta leads to higher expected return
What two important hypothesis must hold for CAPM to hold?
- Intercept of SML = 0
- Slope of SML = market risk premium > 0
How do empirical estimates of SML relate to CAPM?
- empirically slope is much flatter and intercept is too high
What reasons are there for low-risk investing?
- many investors have leverage constraints
- push up prices of risky stocks which lowers returns
- lowers prices of safe stocks increasing returns
What anomalies occur that CAPM cannot explain?
1 firms with low P/E earn abnormal returns (Value Effect)
2. Small firms tend to have rates of return higher than predicted by CAPM (Size Effect)
3. Much of the abnormal returns to small firms occurs during the first two weeks of January (January Effect)
4. Average return to the S+P was reliably negative over weekend in the period 1953-1977 (Weekend Effect)
5. Recent past winners outperform recent past losers (Momentum Effect)
What are anomalies evidence of?
Violation of Efficient Market hypothesis
What is EMH?
Asset prices fully reflect information about the assets future cash flows and risks
What are the three forms of market efficiency?
- Weak
- Semi-strong
- Strong
Define the weak form of market efficiency
- stock prices already reflect all information contained int he history of past prices
Define the semi-string form of market efficiency
- stock prices already reflect all publicly available information
Define the string form of market efficiency
- stock prices reflect all relevant information, including insider information
What can occur if markets are not efficient?
- prices may diverge from fundamentals
- expected returns may be different than those predicted by the model
- investment decisions are unlikely to be efficient
What does evidence suggest about market efficient in reality?
- that markets are efficient in the weak form and most likely in the semi-storm form, but not the strong form
What is the adaptive market hypothesis?
ADH marries EMH principles with the irrational behavioural finance principle
- humans make best guesses based on trial and error
What factors does the FF 3-factor model use to describe asset returns?
- Volatility of market returns (systematic risk)
- Firm size
- Book-to-market-value