Chapter 4: Forecasting

Question 1

Forecasting: define a projection:

Answer 1

A projection forecast is based on the extrapolation of current and historical trends into the future.

Projections put forth designative claims based on arguments about methods

Question 2

Name the 4 OBJECTS of forecasts (what to forecast):

Answer 2

1) Consequences of existing policies
2) Consequences of new policies
3) Contents of new policies
4) Behavior of stakeholders

Question 3

What is the basis of a forecast?

Answer 3

The set of assumptions or data used to establish the plausibility of objects.

Question 4

A set of assumptions or data used to establish the plausibility of objects.

Answer 4

Basis

Question 5

What are

1) projection
2) prediction
3) conjecture

Answer 5

Forms of forecasting

Question 6

Name the Three basis of forecasts

Answer 6

1) trend extrapolation
2) Theoretical
3) Informed Judgement

Question 7

Trend extrapolation

Answer 7

The extension into the future of trends observed in the past.
provided that there are no new policies and unforeseen events to change course of events
Based on inductive reasoning
Starts with set of time series data, projects past trends into future and invokes assumptions about regularity and persistence

Question 8

Inductive logic

Answer 8

The process of reasoning from particular observations into a general conclusion or claim

Question 9

The process of reasoning from particular observations into a general conclusion or claim

Answer 9

Inductive logic

Question 10

Theories (as basis):

Answer 10

Systematically structures and empirically testable set of laws and propositions that make predictions about the occurrence of an event on the basis of another.

Theories are causal and their role is to explain and predictions

Theories are based on DEDUCTIVE reasoning

Question 11

Systematically structures and empirically testable set of laws and propositions that make predictions about the occurrence of an event on the basis of another.

causal and their role is to explain and predictions

based on DEDUCTIVE reasoning

Answer 11

Theories

Question 12

Informed Judgement (basis)

Answer 12

Knowledge based on insight or hypothesis.

These judgements are usually expressed by experts or knowledgeables

Used when theories and or empirical data are unavailable

Based on ABDUCTIVE reasoning

Question 13

Knowledge based on insight or hypothesis.

These judgements are usually expressed by experts or knowledgeables

Used when theories and or empirical data are unavailable

Based on ABDUCTIVE reasoning

Answer 13

Informed Judgment

Question 14

DEDUCTIVE LOGIC

Answer 14

The process of reasoning from general statements, laws or propositions to a particular claim.

Question 15

The process of reasoning from general statements, laws or propositions to a particular claim.

Answer 15

Deductive reasoning

Question 16

ABDUCTIVE LOGIC

Answer 16

Process of reasoning that begins with claims about the future and the works backwards to the information and assumptions necessary to support the claim

Question 17

Process of reasoning that begins with claims about the future and the works backwards to the information and assumptions necessary to support the claim

Answer 17

ABDUCTIVE logic

Question 18

Techniques for extrapolative forecasting

Answer 18

Classical time series analysis 
Linear trend regression 
Exponential weighting
Data transformation 
Catastrophe methodology

Question 19

Techniques for theoretical forecasting

Answer 19

Theory mapping
Causal modeling 
Regression analysis 
Point and interval estimation 
Correlation analysis

Question 20

Techniques for Judgemental forecasting (informed judgment)

Answer 20

Conventional Delphi
Policy Delphi
Cross-impact analysis
Feasibility assessment

Question 21

Main assumptions of extrapolative forecasting (including CLR)

Answer 21

1) Persistence
2) Regularity
3) Reliability and Validity of data

Question 22

Persistence

Answer 22

Pattern observed in the past persist into the future.

Question 23

Pattern observed in the past persist into the future.

Answer 23

Persistence

Question 24

Regularity

Answer 24

Past variations in observed trends reoccur regularly in the future

Question 25

Past variations in observed trends reoccur regularly in the future

Answer 25

Regularity

Question 26

Reliability and validity of data

Answer 26

Measurements of trends is reliable - as in relatively precise or internally consistent

And

Valid - as in measure what it purport to measure

Question 27

Measurements of trends is reliable - as in relatively precise or internally consistent

And

Valid - as in measure what it purport to measure

Answer 27

Reliability and validity of data

Question 28

Name the three forms of forecasting

Answer 28

1) projection
2) prediction
3) conjecture