Midterm #1 Flashcards
Availability Heuristic
judging the frequency or probability of an event or attribute by asking ourselves how easily we can bring examples to mind from memory.
Belief Perseverence
the tendency to continue holding a belief even if its original support has been discredited, and in the face of contrary evidence
Cognitive Illusions
an involuntary error in our thinking or memory due to System 1, which continues to seem correct even if we consciously realize it’s not
Cognitive Pitfalls
a common, predictable error in human reasoning. Cognitive pitfalls include mental glitches uncovered by cognitive psychologists, as well as logical fallacies
Cognitive Reflection
the habit of checking initial impressions supplied by System 1, and overriding them when appropriate
Confirmation bias
the tendency to notice or focus on potential evidence for our pre-existing views, and to neglect or discount contrary evidence. Confirmation bias can be present with our without an underlying motive to have the belief in the first place
Evidence primacy effect
in a process where information is acquired over time, the tendency to give early information more evidential weight than late information. This tendency arises when we develop opinions early on, leading to confirmation bias when interpreting later information, or simply a failure to pay as much attention to it
Heuristic
a cognitive shortcut used to bypass the more effortful type of reasoning that would be required to arrive at an accurate answer. Heuristics are susceptible to systematic and predictable errors
Motivated Reasoning
forming or maintaining a belief at least partly because, at some level, we want it to be true. This manifests itself in selective standards for belief, seeking and accepting evidence that confirms desired beliefs, and ignoring or discounting evidence that disconfirms them
Skilled intuition
the ability to make fast and accurate judgments about a situation by recognizing learned patterns in it. This requires training under specific kinds of conditions.
System 1
the collection of cognitive processes that feel automatic and effortless but not transparent. These include specialized processes that interpret sensory data and are the source of our impressions, feelings, intuitions, and impulses. (The distinction between the two systems is one of degree, and the two systems often overlap, but it is still useful to distinguish them.)
System 2
the collection of cognitive processes that are directly controlled, effortful, and transparent. (The distinction between the two systems is one of degree, and the two systems often overlap, but it is still useful to distinguish them.)
Transparency
the degree to which information processing itself (rather than just its output) is done consciously, in such a way that one is aware of the steps being taken.
Accuracy
the extent to which our beliefs reflect the way things actually are, much like a map reflects the way that a territory is. The concept of accuracy applies not only to binary beliefs, but also to degrees of confidence. For example, if the cat is not on the mat, then believing that the cat is definitely on the mat is less accurate than believing it’s probably on the mat.
Argument
A series of claims presented as support for a conclusion
Bias blindspot
the tendency to fail to recognize biases as they affect us, even when we recognize them in others
Biased Evaluation
evaluating the strength of potential evidence in a way that is influenced by our initial view, whether it’s motivated or not. This is one mechanism that leads to confirmation bias
Binary Belief
treating beliefs as if they are on/off. For example, we either believe that the cat is on the mat or that the cat is not on the mat, without allowing for different degrees of confidence
Considering the Opposite
a technique to reduce biased evaluation of evidence, where we ask ourselves either one of two questions: (i) How would I have treated this evidence if I had the opposite belief? (ii) How would I have treated this evidence if it went the opposite way?
Decoupling
separating our prior degree of confidence in a claim from our assessments of the strength of a new argument or a new piece of evidence about that claim
Degrees of Confidence
treating beliefs as coming with different levels of certainty. Just as we can be absolutely certain that x is true, we can also think that x is probably true, that x might be true, or that x is probably not true
Evaluation Stage
the second stage in the reasoning process, when we assess the strength of the potential evidence we’ve gathered.
Evidence
a fact is evidence for a claim if coming to know it should make us more confident in that claim. The notion of evidence is more rigorously defined in Chapter 5
Introspection Illusion
the misguided assumption that our own cognitive biases are transparent to us, and as a result, that we can diagnose these biases in ourselves through introspection
Optional Stopping
allowing the search for evidence to end when convenient; this may skew the evidence if (perhaps unbeknownst to us) we are more likely to stop looking when the evidence collected so far supports our first or favored view
Possibility Freeze
the tendency to only consider one or two possibilities in detail, and thereby end up too confident that they are correct
Restricted Search
the tendency not to seek out the full range of alternative views or the full range of evidence that favors each view. Along with biased evaluation, restricted search is an instance of confirmation bias.
