Module 1 Material Flashcards
Financial Modelling lets you?
Quantify your views of a company
What are some use cases of financial modelling?
-Stock Market Investing
-Advising on M&A
-Acquiring companies in leveraged buyouts
-Raising Capital
What are the 6 steps of financial modelling?
- Decide on the purpose of your analysis
- Do some background research
- Identify key drivers
- Gather data for other companies (if applicable)
- Build your analysis
- Present your conclusions
What are the aspects of Step 1 (Pick Your Purpose) ?
Stock Pitch: Valuation tends to be most important
Metrics and Ratios: Financial statement projections
Merger/Acquisition: Valuation, but also a merger
Buy Entire Company: Leveraged buyout model is critical
Commonalities: Need revenue, expenses, and future cash flows
Time Spent: 5 minutes, hopefully
What are the aspects of Step 2 (Do some background research) ?
Start With: Company’s interim and annual reports
Then: Investor presentations, outside industry research
If You Can: “Equity research” on a company, issued by banks
Bonus Points” Interview management or do “channel checks”
Private Co’s: Need to get info directly from them
Time Spent: Might be 1 hour, or might be days/weeks+
What are the aspects of Step 3 (Identify Key Drivers) ?
Retailer: #of stores, sales pert store, costs per product sold
Food & Beverage: Units sold, average price, cost per unit
SaaS Company: Monthly fee, # customers, cancellation rate
Hotel: # hotels, # rooms, occupancy rate, room rate, cost per hotel
Pharma Co: # patients, price per patient, R&D and sales
Time Spent: 30-60 minutes
What are the aspects of Step 4 (Gather Data on Other Companies) ?
Tricky: Varies A LOT based on the anlaysis and required precision
Extreme Case: “Fairness Opinion” in investment banking
Other Extreme: Quick analysis to see if a buyout works
Valuation: Tends to be VERY data-intensive - need similar co’s
M&A: Less so, but need info on multiple companies
Time Spent: 1 hours up to days or weeks, depending on context
What are the aspects of Step 5 (Build the Analysis) ?
Always: Revenue and expenses for your company
Always: Full or partial “financial statements”
Sometimes: Valuation - need lots of outside data + adjustments
Sometimes: Acquisitions - more about scenarios with your data
Rarely: Extreme precision down to individual employees
Time Spent: 30 minutes up to …. 3 months? Yes, sometimes!
What are the aspects of Step 6 (Present Conclusions) ?
What: Buy the company? Fund the project? Sell the Stock?
Why: Supporting reasons, backed by numbers
How: What’s the best structure/ timing?
Format: PowerPoint slides, Word document, oral presentation
Audience: Senior bankers, PM, Partners, interviewers, or clients
Time Spent: Several hours up to 1 week+
What is the basic principle of Time Value of Money?
Money TODAY is worth more than money TOMORROW
How to Analyze Any Investment TVM
Key Question: Would you earn more with an investment than you would earn with similar opportunities elsewhere? or less?
*must always discount future money into “Present Value” when you are analyzing it
How to Make Investment Decisions (2 methods)
How to decided where to put your money?
Method 1: Intrinsic Value vs. Asking Price
-Invest when Asking Price<Intrinsic Value
Method 2: Potential Returns vs. Opportunity Cost
-Invest when Potential Returns>Opportunity Cost
*Methods are different, but equivalent
Examples of how to make investment decisions (3)
Stock Pitches-But a stock, but only if asking price is below intrinsic value
IB Client Recommendation: Think company is work 50 mil, but say should target between 40-45 mil price in a sell-side process to be more conservative
PE Investment Recommendations: Your firms targeted returns are X%, but buying/selling company will produce X%
What is the opportunity cost in finance?
discount rate
What does a higher or lower discount rate mean to investors?
Higher rate - higher risk, but higher potential returns
Lower Rate - lower risk but lower earning potential
What does discount rate mean to companies?
Represents the Cost of Funding their operations
Discount Rate for Real Companies: Investor Perspective, Company Perspective
Investor Perspective- Where should I allocate my money?
Company Perspective- How should we fund our operations
What are the main options for companies?
Equity and Debt
Equity (Companies perspective) Funding
Company sells stock to investors; each investor gets a small percentage of the company, but no guranted cash payments .
Debt (Company perspective) Funding
Company borrows money from lenders; lenders do not own anything but do receive cash interest payments + entire principle back
What has the highest potential returns, but the riskiest for investors?
Stock Market
What funding is almost always more expensive for companies?
Equity (stock)
For lenders what is less risky with lower potential returns?
Debt is less risky, but has lower potential returns.
What funding is usually always cheaper (at first) for companies?
Debt