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Flashcards in Probability Deck (11):
1

Objective probability

• Frequentist or propensity account

2

Frequentist account

• Account of objective probability
• The frequency of things - "how many heads will we get if we flip a coin 100 times? 50"

3

Propensity account

• Account of objective probability
• The tendency of outcomes - "the coin is equally likely to land on heads as tails", "more likely to pick green ball"

4

Subjective Probability

• Probability that we believe. Subjective.

5

{x, y, z}

Possible outcomes are x, y, and z

Set of possible outcomes “heads” and “tails” ->
{H, T}

6

Experiment

Each flip, each turn etc. you take

7

Regression toward the mean

The tendency for people who receive high or low scores on a particular measure to score closer to the mean on a subsequent testing
• Movement of means can sometimes cause researchers to misinterpret their data and pose a threat to internal validity

8

Tversky and Kahneman

Economics - human judgement is not rational and subject to many biases. People solve the complex task of assessing probabilities by using a number of heuristics.

9

What is the advantage to heuristics?

Generally useful, lead to reasonable solutions while minimising cognitive burden

10

What is the disadvantage to heuristics?

Can lead to systematic biases in assessing and interpreting probabilities

11

What are 3 classic heuristics?

1) Representativeness
2) Availability
3) Anchoring