Flashcards in Probability Deck (11):

1

## Objective probability

### • Frequentist or propensity account

2

## Frequentist account

###
• Account of objective probability

• The frequency of things - "how many heads will we get if we flip a coin 100 times? 50"

3

## Propensity account

###
• Account of objective probability

• The tendency of outcomes - "the coin is equally likely to land on heads as tails", "more likely to pick green ball"

4

## Subjective Probability

### • Probability that we believe. Subjective.

5

## {x, y, z}

###
Possible outcomes are x, y, and z

Set of possible outcomes “heads” and “tails” ->

{H, T}

6

## Experiment

### Each flip, each turn etc. you take

7

## Regression toward the mean

###
The tendency for people who receive high or low scores on a particular measure to score closer to the mean on a subsequent testing

• Movement of means can sometimes cause researchers to misinterpret their data and pose a threat to internal validity

8

## Tversky and Kahneman

### Economics - human judgement is not rational and subject to many biases. People solve the complex task of assessing probabilities by using a number of heuristics.

9

## What is the advantage to heuristics?

### Generally useful, lead to reasonable solutions while minimising cognitive burden

10

## What is the disadvantage to heuristics?

### Can lead to systematic biases in assessing and interpreting probabilities

11