Topic 2

Question 1

What are 7 stages to the modelling process

Answer 1

Stage 1 - real world problem is recognised
Stage 2 - statistical model is devised
Stage 3 - Model used to make predictions
Stage 4 - Experimental or observational data is collected
Stage 5 - Comparisons are made against the model
Stage 6 - Statistical techniques used to test how well the model describes the real life problem
Stage 7 - Model is refined

Question 2

Explain why statistical models are used when attempting to solve real world problems

Answer 2

Many real world problems have uncertainty as an integral part of them through imperfect info being I putted or because same set of circumstances give rise to different outcomes when problem is observed repeatedly

Question 3

Explain what you understand by a statistical model

Answer 3

Describes main feature of a real world situation which has uncertainty a an important feature of it - due to imperfect info or randomness - model attempt to quantify effects of these uncertainties

Question 4

Describe role of simulation in testing statistical models

Answer 4

Simulation often cheaper and safer as a first step in testing a model - computer power now allows large number of repetitions to be carried out to investigate behaviour of complex situations where a probability analysis of the outcomes wouldn’t be possible