Block 8: Integrated assessment Flashcards
integrated assessment
Assessment is a structured process dealing with complex issues, using knowledge from various scientific disciplines and/or stakeholders
use: Gives insight as to where focus research and how policy makers should design policy
integrated assessment models
Models used in / developed for / developed during integrated assessments;
pours mathematically formalised processes into computer models.
use: Meant to analyse a broad range of policy options
participatory integrated assessment
Integrated assessments including more qualitative elements – such as value judgements – which can not be easily incorporated in a model
It is The development and use of an environmental model by scientists, with interference from decision-makers or stakeholders.
use: alows for dialogue between analists and stakeholders
Scenario
Description of possible future pathways of, for instance, society (People), the environment (Planet) and the economy (Profit).
DPSIR approach
○ A structured representation of the cause-effect chain and the interactions (‘Driving Forces’, ‘Pressures’, ‘State’, ‘Impact’ and ‘Response’).
RAINS model
○ Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model (note that the most recent version is the GAINS model which also includes greenhouse gases, see www.iiasa.ac.at)
LRTAP Convention
○ Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution
TARGETS model
○ Tool to Assess the Regional and Global Environmental and health Target
what are SRES Scenarios?
Scenarios developed and described in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Which of the following statements is correct?
A Integrated Environmental Models are no longer used because they inadequately represent the phenomena relating to the natural environment and their interdependencies.
B The term ‘Assessment’ is used to reflect the interactions between scientists and policy-makers in the process of identifying and analysing causes and impacts of an environmental issue.
C Integrated Assessments can only be performed by the uN Environmental Program (uNEP).
D All of the above statements are correct.
B
What is a correct example of a Participatory Integrated Assessment?
A The development and use of an environmental model by scientists, without interference from decision-makers or stakeholders.
B The development and use of an environmental model by stakeholders, without interference from decision-makers or scientists.
C The development and use of an environmental model by scientists, with interference from decision-makers or stakeholders.
D None of the above.
C
Consider Figures 18.1 and 18.2. Figure 18.1 illustrates the application
of the DPSIR model in Integrated Assessment Modelling in a very general
way. Figure 18.2 shows how DPSIR was actually implemented in RAINS.
Indicate the D, P, S, I and R in Figure 18.2. This figure shows that,
in practice, DPSIR is an oversimplification that needs to be amended.
Explain this by discussing the DPSIR of NoX. What did RAINS do to amend
the oversimplification?
In Figure 18.2, the ‘economic activities’ are the drivers,
‘emission control policies’ the responses,
and the emissions (third column) the pressures.
The state is not clearly specified, but ‘dispersion’ (fourth column) describes the ambient concentration (=state) that will result.
The impacts are represented as ‘exceeding the critical loads’ (fifth column).
The DPSIR of NoX shows that NoX has not only several different drivers (agriculture, transport, energy, other), but also different impacts (acidification, eutrophication, ozone formation).
Hence, the representation of a single, linear DPSIR is an oversimplification. Instead, it is ‘branched’ and intertwined with other DPSIRs.
In RAINS, the fates of the major pollutants are modelled simultaneously and their interactions are taken into account as regards ozone and secondary aerosol formation. Furthermore, their contributions to acidification and eutrophication are aggregated. Finally, the concept of critical loads has been introduced to model the impacts.
A scenario set can be regarded as ‘a map of the future uncertainty space’.
Explain how uncertainties can be mapped by applying the
so-called scenario axis method (as in the ‘SRES method’, see Section 18.5.3, resulting in four scenario families characterised by the extremes on two axes reflecting important characteristics of future developments).
What subsequent steps need to be taken after scenario families have been qualitatively described? What kinds of uncertainty are not mapped?
In the scenario axis method, four different scenarios are determined by the two major axes. These axes, or dimensions, are co-operation (globalisation vs. fragmentation) and individualisation (material vs.
social/ecological) in SRES (Fig. 18.10).
In each quadrant of the axes graph, internally consistent and plausible storylines are formulated. Then, integrated assessment models are used to estimate e.g. economic and population growth, technological development and subsequent greenhouse gas emissions for each scenario.
The four scenarios together ‘map the uncertainty’. The scenarios (implicitly) assume gradual changes: discontinuities (either slow trends such as the introduction of web-based social media or sudden events such as the 9/11 attack) are not taken into account.
Furthermore, several feedbacks (e.g. how societies respond to climate change impacts) are largely unknown. Finally, scenarios can only model uncertainties that we are aware of, and there may be important uncertainties caused by events we are unaware of (e.g. most of us had no clue about climate change in the 1950s)
In Integrated Assessment Models, so-called feedbacks play an essential role. An example of a feedback is that rapid per capita economic growth decreases the fertility rate and therefore slows down population growth.
Provide some (different) examples of feedback loops in RAINS, TARGETS and SRES
RAINS models tries to meet environmental targets at minimum costs, while taking into account regional differences in ecosystem sensitivity, atmospheric transport and emission control costs (in its optimisation
mode) and the regional pattern of acid deposition resulting from certain emission control policies (in its forward running mode).
TARGETS includes many feedbacks, as illustrated by Figure 18.8. obvious examples include the increased needs for land and energy as the population increases.
The feedbacks in SRES are summarised on p. 413 (they are called ‘mental maps’). one example is that if per capita income rises, the share of the agricultural sector in the GDP decreases.
The RAINS integrated assessment model (Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation) includes so-called critical loads, which indicate levels below which no harmful effects occur. Which of the following statements is correct?
a Targets for critical load exceedance can be defined. RAINS can be used in optimisation analysis to calculate how such targets can be met at minimal costs.
b Critical loads cannot be used in optimisation analysis in RAINS.
c Critical loads indicate the maximum costs countries are willing to pay
for pollution control.
d Critical loads are used in Europe as a basis for emission trading
schemes.
A
