11. Risk Flashcards

Question

What can a project manager use in order to determine quantitative probability and impact?

Answer 1

* Expert judgment from trained risk specialists and team members. * Data-gathering techniques, such as interviewing * Data-analysis techniques, such as Monte Carlo analysis. * Interpersonal and Team skills * Representations of uncertainty * Cost and schedule estimating * Use of historical records from previous projects * Probability and Impact Matrix

Answer 2

Monte Carlo analysis is used to simulate the cost or schedule results of the project. Results are in a probability distribution.

Answer 3

A technique to analyse which individual project risks have the most potential impact on project outcomes. Tornado diagram.

Answer 4

Selection of the best of several alternative courses of action. Branches are representing different decisions or events. We see associated costs + probabilities in % End point of branches = + or - outcomes in $ Presentation of the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) for an event.

Answer 5

Probability times impact or: Expected Monetary Value EMV = P x I P: Probability I: Impact Performed during Quantitative risk analysis

Answer 6

``` Schedule: Expected Value EV = P x I P: Probability I: Impact Performed during Quantitative risk analysis ```

Answer 7

• Avoid: eliminate the threat by eliminating its cause. • Mitigate: reduce the probability or impact of the threat • Transfer: make another party responsible for the risk (outsourcing, insurance, warranties, bonds, guaranties) • Escalate: move the threat to the program or portfolio level • Accept: Passive acceptance - do nothing; if it happens, it happens Active acceptance - develop contingency plans in advance.

Answer 8

* Exploit: make sure the opportunity occurs * Enhance: increase probability or positive impact of the risk event * Share: allocate full or partial ownership of the opportunity to a third party * Escalate: move the opportunity to the program or portfolio level * Accept: do nothing, if it happens, it happens

Answer 9

Risks that remain after risk response planning.

Answer 10

New risks created by the implementation of risk response strategies.

Answer 11

Plans describing the specific actions that will be taken if the opportunity or threat occurs.

Answer 12

Actions that will be taken if the contingency plan is not effective.

Answer 13

Each risk must be assigned to someone who will help lead the development of the risk response and who will be assigned to carry out the risk response or "own" the risk.

Answer 14

Early warning signs that a risk event has occurred, or is about to occur. They let risk owners know when to take action.

Answer 15

Time or cost added to the project to account for risk. • Management reserve • Contingency reserve

Answer 16

Unplanned responses developed to deal with the occurrence of unanticipated events or problems on a project (or to deal with risks that had been accepted because of the unlikelihood of occurrence and /or minimal impact).

Answer 17

Reserve analysis is checking to see how much reserve remains and how much might be needed. It is done during the Monitor Risks process.

Answer 18

A discussion of the effectiveness of planned risk responses that have been implemented on the project; it may result in the identification of new risks, secondary risks created by risk response plans, and risks that are no longer applicable; risk reviews may also result in risk reassessments, identifying new risks and/or closing risks. A risk review is held regularly.

Answer 19

Assessments or the overall process of risk management on the project.

Answer 20

* Risk identification is completed without knowing enough about the project * Overall project risk is evaluated using tools that do not identify specific individual project risks * Risk identification ends too soon * Padding is used * Some things considered risks are facts, and are therefore not risks * The identified risks are general rather than specific * Whole categories of risks are missed

Answer 21

* Urgency * Dormancy * Proximity * Manageability * Controllability * Detectability * Connectivity * Strategic Impact * Propinquity

Answer 22

``` Risk • Focused on the future • Can be positive opportunity or negative • Is documented in the risk register • Response is called a "risk response" Issue • Focused on the present • Can be positive or negative • Is documented in the issue log • Response is called a "workaround" ```

Answer 23

* Risk response: actions taken before the risk event occurs | * Contingency plan: action that will be taken if and when the risk event occurs.

11. Risk Flashcards

(47 cards)