Think again

Question 1

Phil Tetlock Mindset Model

Answer 1

Preacher, Prosecutor, Politician

Question 2

Preacher mindset

Answer 2

We pontificate and promote our ideas (sometimes to defend our ideas from attack). Changing your mind is a sign of moral weakness.

Question 3

Prosecutor

Answer 3

We attack the ideas of others, often to win an argument. Being persuaded is defeat.

Question 4

Politicians

Answer 4

We try to win the support of others, optimizing for approval and agreement (over personal conviction). We change our opinion opportunistically.

Question 5

Scientist mindset

Answer 5

Scientist: Grant appends this professional worldview to Tetlock’s mindset models.

Rethinking is fundamental to scientific thinking.
“You’re expected to doubt what you know, be curious about what you don’t know, and update your views based on new data.”
Search for truth through testing hypotheses, running experiments, and uncovering new truths.
Changing your mind is a sign of intellectual integrity and a response to evidence.

Question 6

Questions for a scientist thinking

Answer 6

In what ways I maybe wrong?

How do i prove it?

How do i prove it wrong?

How can i get the data from the experience?

How can i collect and analysis the data?

What kind of hypotheses we have on this action?

If you start admitting that you don’t know everything, you will open up to learning new things.

Question 7

Ways to think like a scientist

Answer 7

• Treat your opinion as a hunch or hypothesis, and test it using real-world data or experiments. Look for ways in which you can be proven wrong.
• Seek out conflicting information that challenges your views or assumptions. Follow and interact with people who stimulate your thinking, even if you disagree with their views.
• Use experiments to test different ideas and methods, to continually refine/sharpen your views and approach.