Voting Beahviour Flashcards
Class does impact voting behaviour
- In 1964-66 64% of C2,D and E classes voted labour and 62% of A.B and C1 classes voted for the conservatives.
- In the 1997 election 59% of the AB classes voted conservative and 59% od DE voted labour.
- In 1979 59% of A, B and C1 voters voted Conservative but only 24% voted Labour and 49% of C2, D and E voters voted Labour while only 34% voted Conservative.
- Peter Pulzer wrote in 1967 ‘Class is the basis of british party politics, all else is embellishement and detail’.
Class doesnt impact voting behaviour
- Class Dealignment is caused by the growing affluence of the working class into the middle class, the manual workforce shrinking due to deindustrialisation and therefore making social class less clear cut or devided. In other words class divides have become less important in UK culture.
- In 1964 78% of the AB voters voted conservative, in 2010 this fell to just 40%.
- According to Ipsos Mori in 1979 51% of all voters supported their natural class party, in 1987 this fell to 44% and as low as 38% in 2010.
- In the 2019 election 41% of the DE voted Conservative and 39% voted labour. Furthermore in the 2017 election the conservatives performed equally among the ABC1 voters and the C2DE, winning 44% of both.
Gender does impact voting behaviour
- The main gender bias in the UK has traditionally meant that women vote conservative, although this correltation is relatively weak, although there have been tactics by both parties in past elections to gain the female vote.
- Since 1979 the conservatives have recieved more of the womens vote on 7 occasions to labours 4.
- 2017 pledge to conduct a gender impact assessment on all policies and legislation by labour, 42% - 40%.
- Thatcher 47% voted conservative and only 35% voted labour in 1979.
Gender doesnt impact voting behaviour
- Correlation is insignificant.
- in 1997 Labour was supported by a equal number of women to men (44%).
- In 2015 although the men were more liekly to vote conservative than women in all age groups except 50+, the overall difference was only 2% and nothing major.
- 2017 there was a small gender gap between men and women, with women being equally split between labour and the conseravtive as 43%.
- 2019 the gender gap was only among the young, conservatives won 46% of men and 44% of women.
Age does impact voting behaviour
- General tendency that levels of onservative support increase with age and the labour have support from the younger part of the electorate. Younger people are less ‘conservative’ and more progressive, and as people increase age they become more affluent, more fearful of change and less concerned of wider social issues.
- YouGov argued that age has replaced class as the new dividing line in british politics, in the 2017 election Labour had a 47% lead over the conservatives among 18-19 year olds, while the conservatives had a 50% lead over people aged 70+.
- In the 2019 election Labour won 56% of 18-24 and the conservatives won 57% of over 65s. Oppose to 21% and 22% respectively.
Age doesnt impact voting behaviour
- 1997 showed that age will not always be a defining factor, Blair won a 179 seat majority, and beat the conservatives in every age bracket and even gained 5% in the over 65s.
- This means that other factors and influences will have greater impact on voter preferences in this case.
- Furthermore in the 1979 election 42% of people under 24 voted for the conservative party whereas only 41% voted labour.
Ethnicity does impact voting behaviour
- BAME voters have tended to vote for the labour party in the past, this could be because of the labour parties more pro-immigration stance and the current adverse outlook in the Tory party.
- The link is very clear and consistent
- In 1997 18% voted conservative whereas 70% voted labour
- In 2017 21% voted conservative and 65% voted labour
- In 2019 20% voted conservative and 64% voted labour
- Furthermore in 2015 Labour won 74% of the british muslim vote, this number rose to 87% in 2017.
Ethnicity doesnt impact voting behaviour
HOWEVER British indians and Hindus voting for the conservatives have increases 10% between 2010 and 2017, rising now to 40%.
- Furthermore there has been a rise in the number of BAME people voting for the conservative party since 1997, possibly pointing to it becoming less important. .
- Finally in the UK the poportion of BAME in social classes C2 and DE are overwhelmingly greater than those in classes AB and C1, this points to it being more class voting than voting on ethnicity.
Region does impact voting behaviour
- Although wealth and income are not evenly distrabuted in the UK, there are clear divides in region between the North, South, the Midlands, London and Scotland.
- South of England apart from london is conservative, they recived 54% of the vote oppose to labours 29% in 2017.
- The north is labour, recieving 53% compared to the conservatives 37%.
- In 2017 the Conservatives dominated in the Midlands winning 50% to labours 42%.
- Labour won 55% of london to conservatives 33% in 2017, the conservatives only had 21 of the 73 MPs in london.
- Since 2010, Scotland is no longer dominated by labour but the SNP, winning 56 and 58 scottish seats in westminster in 2015 and 2019, where Labour only won 1. Massive change from the 1997 election where labour won 56 and the SNP had 1.
Issue voting does impact voting behaviour
- Issue voting suggests that voters will decide who they vote for based on a single issue that means a great deal to them.
- BREXIT, in the 2019 general election 74% of the electorate that voted to leave the EU also voted conservative, in line with the parties ‘Get Brexit done’ policy.
- In 1983 the labour manifesto contained policies to extend nationalisation, increase taxation, boost public sepnding and abolish the nuclear deternet, as a result labour lost 60 seatds and a comprehensive policy review began in 1987 to increase their ‘electability’.
- Blair was elected on a 179 seat majority after his manifesto in 1997, maitained privatisation and committed to cutting NHS waiting lists, no rises in income tax and get 250,000 under 25s off benefits.
Issue voting does not impact on voting behaviour
Governing competance and party image does impact voting behaviour
- Valence is perceived not by ideology but by competance.
- 1997 election, due to the issue of the European union the conservative party had become intensely divided before the election, financial crisis post 1992 over the exchange rate mechanism and ‘black Wednesday’ meant conservatives lost their reputation for being trustworthy.
- The media highlighted sex scandals and issues of financial corruption and sleaze within the conservative party, dominated the campaign.
- Blair won a 179 seat majority.
- 1979 election was triggered by a vote of no confidence, ‘The winter of discontent’ was a series of strikes in response to the govts attempt to enforce limits on pay rises to curb inflation. Callaghan already lacked a mandate as he was never voted in but won a leadership contest. Economic crisis in 1976 where the IMF had to bail Britain out.
- In 2022 Keir Starmer has worked hard to make labour more ‘electable’, Corbyn removal from the labour party, sleaze and ‘partygate’ and Liz Truss cost 30bn. As of March 2023 labour had a 26% lead in the polls.
Governing competance and party image doesnt impact voting behaviour
- There will always be consistent voters who will vote in line with their ethnicity, party loyalty, age and gender. Voters will make a rational choice based on what is most beneficial for themselves are will likely act in their own interests.
- For example in the 1997 election the conservatives remained dominant with class A and B, they had a 10% lead over Labour.
- Class, in 1979 the conservatives remained dominant with the AB and C1 voters, but labour still won over the C2 and DE voters despite the convincing conservative win.
Campaigns impact voting behaviour
- Campaigns are important as they reinforce and focus attention on leaders, policies image and trust.
- 2010 Conservative campaign sought to damage Labours image by associating it with ‘excessive’ spending, and for wasting money when the economy was booming, they portrayed the 2008-09 financial crisis as ‘Labours debt crisis’. The Campaign reduced labours party image.
- 2017 Corbyn began 20 points begind may, but by the ened he increased laborus vote share by 10%, Corbyn had a ability to enthuse younge people at rallys for eample in Telford in 2017, where he attacked conservative policy on social care and two terroist attacks.
- 2019 ‘Get Brexit done’ 74% of leavers voted conservative, Johnson had a clear message to the electorate taht was important in determining the final outcome.
Leaders impact voting behaviour
Class dealignment and the falling importance of social factors has meant that parties place increasing faith in their leaders to win elections.
- They must demostrate strength and trust.
- In 1997 labour radically altered its image, Blair was invisioned as the perfect person to lead ‘Cool Britannia’, at 43 he was considered a excetpional communcator of his ideas and potrayed a strong and clear message with his 5 pledges. 179 majority.
- Blair led other party leaders by 15% in the polls.
- Introdction of television debates in 2010, Brown was 13 points adrift of cameron before the 2010 election and possibly led to the realection of the conservative party.
- Furthemore in 2015 cameron consistently led Miliband in the poles who was seen as a relatviely weak leader, the Huffington post wrote ‘How a bacon sandwich derailed Ed Milibands UK political career’. He was haunted by awkward photo of him eating a bacon sandwich.
- 2019 Labours policy was very poppular, around half (53%) would support a wealth tax, nationalising water companies (50%) and 45% support taking gas and utility companies into public ownership. However the conservatives led the polls by just over 10%.
- ‘Intense’ dislike for Crobyn as written a guardian article. COULD BE LEADER
- 2019 49% of voters said Boris would make the best prime minister and only 31% said Corbyn.
