POPULATION NOTES

Question 1

Impacts of a youthful population

Answer 1

Social:
- Education/skills gap
- Youth unemployment

Political:
- Participation/representation
- Generational divides and tensions

Economic:
- Brain drain
- High dependency ratio

Question 2

Youthful population stats.

Answer 2

UNESCO estimates that globally, approx.. 258 million children and youth were out of school in 2018.

In MENA countries, labour force grew at an average of 2.7% between 2010 and 2012, coupled with rising female labour participation (from 18% in 1990 to 22% in 2013. Estimated that 80 million new jobs must be created to absorb these new entrants.

The unemployment rates for youth in youthful economies can be up to 40% youth unemployment

The “Arab Spring” uprisings that occurred in various countries in the Middle East and North Africa in 2010-2011.

1% increase in youth within a country = 4% increase in likelihood of conflict

In countries where youth bulge makes up more than 33% of population, risk of armed conflict is 150% higher than in advanced economies with older age structures.

according to data from the World Bank, in 2019, approximately 46% of tertiary-educated individuals from Sub-Saharan Africa were residing outside their home countries.

Hong Kong which had 25% of population between 15-24 in 1975. Had an economic growth rate of 7.4% in 1980s.

Question 3

Impacts of an ageing population

Answer 3

Economic:
- Pensions and social security systems
- Economic productivity

Political:
- Intergenerational conflict
- Political representation

Social:
- Healthcare burden
- Social isolation and loneliness

Question 4

Ageing population stats

Answer 4

For example, in Japan, old-age dependency ratio was 48% in 2020

Budget deficit for the US will range from 8-20% of GDP by 2050.

OECD estimates that the average labour force participation rate for 55-64 was around 64%

evidenced by the fact that over a 1/3 of those over 50 are still in workplace in the G7 economies

study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that an increase in the share of the population aged 60 and older is associated with lower support for public spending on education.

healthcare expenditures are 3-5x higher than those for younger age groups

Survey conducted by AARP Foundation found that 1/3 of adults aged 45 and older in the US reported feeling lonely.

Question 5

Impacts of overpopulation

Answer 5

Social:
- Strain on infrastructure and services
- Social inequality and poverty

Political:
- Struggle for resources
- Political instability and migratory pressures/armed conflict

Economic:
- Unemployment:

Environmental:
- Depletion of natural resources/destruction of the environment
- technological innovation

Question 6

Impacts of underpopulation

Answer 6

Economic:
- Foreign economic involvement
- Economic decline

Social:
- High rate of immigration
- Aging and declining communities

Political:
- Political marginalisation

Environmental:
- ecological preservation
- Limtied enforcement

Question 7

Increasing carrying capacity stats

Answer 7

Hydroponics:

Eg - vertical farming (layered farming - more plants in smaller area - increases yield per unit area by 10x compared to traditional agriculture
Eg - greenhouses - controlled environment with light/humidity - can increase crop yield by 30%
Eg - urban agriculture where land is scarce eg Singapore - vertical farms - 10-12 times more vegetables per unit area

Selective breeding:

Hybrid crops - 2 genetically different crops with desirable traits breeded - increased global yield of maize, soybean, and cotton by 21%, 10%, and 27% between 1996 and 2018
Livestock - dairy cows for higher milk production  between 1980 and 2012, average milk yield per cow increased 34%

Advanced irrigation methods:
Israel - drip irrigation increased the yields of crops such as tomatoes and watermelon by up to 30%, while reducing water consumption by up to 60% compared to traditional irrigation methods.
Australia - Precision irrigation involves using advanced technologies, such as soil moisture sensors and weather forecasts, to optimize irrigation scheduling and improve water use efficiency. - increased crop yields by up to 25% and reduce water consumption by up to 30%.

Genetically modified crops:
One example of how genetically modified crops have increased the carrying capacity of an area is the case of Bt cotton in India. Bt cotton is a genetically modified variety of cotton that produces a toxin called Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) that is toxic to bollworms, a common pest of cotton plants. Bt cotton adoption in India resulted in an increase in cotton yields by approximately 24% and a reduction in pesticide use by around 28% compared to conventional cotton varieties. This increase in cotton production has helped to improve food security and economic growth in rural areas of India.