(factor) is the most significant factor in congressional elections

Question 1

incumbency

Answer 1

-re-election rate in 2020 was up to 96%, three reasons:
-strong track record of constituency representation: MOCs deliver ‘pork’ by amending legislation/budgets and constituents award them as such e.g. Cruz ensures he is on the senate committee for commerce, science and transportation to protect 52,000 jobs at NASA
-institutional support: staff hold events to build ‘donor networks’ and support from ‘folks back home’ house reps have 20 staffers and senators 30 staffers
-finance: special interests donate disproportionately to incumbents (85% to them, 15% to challengers), in 2022 AOC raided $13million in finance

Question 2

incumbency evaluation

Answer 2

Rather than holding a preference for the individual incumbent, the polarised electorate may be demonstrating more loyalty to the party than the individual candidate. The arguments assumes the electorate carefully weighs how effective a delegate the incumbent has been when in reality, Cruz probably benefited from party affiliation. A 2014 study (Annenberg) demonstrated that only 27% of Americans could identify their representative for House elections. A 2020 study (Pew) showed only 29% of Americans knew both of their senators.

Question 3

gerrymandering in the house

Answer 3

-less than 20% of house races are now considered competitive, with 90% seen as foregone conclusions
-due to gerrymandering some districts are solidly ‘red’ or ‘blue’
-in alabama 6 out of its 7 districts have a republican representative but the state itself is only 60-40 republican so this outcome is highly undemocratic

Question 4

gerrymandering evaluation

Answer 4

Senate elections are ‘state-wide’ and cannot be gerrymandered, so this factor is not appropriate when explaining the outcome of Senate races. What’s more, many House races are not uncompetitive because of gerrymandering but because of geographic reality. For instance, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 14th district of New York is not won by the Democrats because of gerrymandering but because of the diverse, socio-
economically deprived nature of the Bronx, New York.

Question 5

finance

Answer 5

-in the house 90% of candidates that raise the most money win
-money can be suggested to play a decisive role in election results
-finance funds the ‘ground war’ and the ‘air war’

Question 6

finance evaluation

Answer 6

Politicians do not win because of money; they receive
money because they win. Nate Silver, the political scientist, argues that special interests’ donations should be viewed more as an attempt to ‘capture’
MOCs rather than as the main reason for election victory. Another point is that money is not always decisive. In 2022, Marco Rubio was re-elected as
the Republican Senator for Florida despite being outspent by $30m.

Question 7

‘coattails effect’

Answer 7

-presidential elections can help or hinder an MOCs election chances
-popular candidates such as obama can mobilise voters and increase their party’s candidates chances at election
-unpopular candidates such as trump (approval rating of 40%) can cost their party candidates electoral victory, lost the house 2018

Question 8

coattails evaluation

Answer 8

This analysis is too president centric. Perhaps it is relevant in swing seats in certain elections (e.g., 2018 midterms), but it ignores Tip O’Neill’s quip that “all politics is local.” In other words, most Congressional elections are determined by MOCs’ ability to deliver for their constituents. Indeed, many voters engage in split ticket voting. This is where they may support two different parties (a Democrat for president,
Republican for Senate). A ANES study demonstrated that around 10% of the electorate split-ticket vote, with more educated voters less likely to blindly vote for a party based on who the president is.

Question 9

valence

Answer 9

-valence can be considered the strongest explanatory power for voters, probably the most important issue is the economy
-2008: republicans were in control of the senate and were blamed for the crash, so democrats took the senate
-2022: biden administration held responsible for inflation, republicans took the house

Question 10

valence evaluation

Answer 10

Again, perhaps this analysis best applies to swing seats. Solidly Republican districts in Alabama do not switch hands because of an economic crash. Valence voting is a theory best applied to independent swing-voters in suburbia. Republicans with strong pro-life and pro-
Second Amendment views do not simply switch to the Democrats (pro-choice and for increased gun regulations) because of an economic crisis.