4.2. Demographic transition Flashcards
Demographic Transition
The historical shift of birth and death rates from high to low levels in a population
Stage 1 of demographic transition model
- Crude birth rate is high and stable
- Crude death rate is high and fluctuating due to famine, disease and war
- Population growth is very slow
- Infant mortality is high
- Life expectancy is low
Stage 2 of demographic transition model
- Death rate declines significantly due to better nutrition, improved public health, clean water supply
- Birth rate remains high as the social norms governing fertility take time to change and children are seen as economic assets
- Rate of natural change increases to a peak at the end of this stage
- Infant mortality falls
- Life expectancy increases
Stage 3 of demographic transition model
- Social norms adjust to the lower level of mortality
- Birth rate declines due to improved standards of living, education of women and increased use of contraception. Children are seen as economic liabilities
- Death rate stabilizes at a low level
- Infant mortality decreases
- Life expectancy continues to increase
Stage 4 of demographic transition model
- Both birth and death rates are low
- Population growth is slow
- Death rates rise slightly as the average age of population increases
- However, life expectancy still improves as age-specific mortality rates continue to fall
Stage 5 of demographic transition model
- Birth rate has fallen below death rate, resulting in natural decrease
- In the absence of net migration inflows, these populations are declining.
Criticisms of the demographic transition model
- It is seen as too Eurocentric as it was based on the experience of Western Europe
- Many developing countries may not follow the sequence set out in the model
- Model fails to take in account changes due to migration
- Ignores the differences between regions within a country
- Can’t predict when a country will reach a certain stage or how long it will take to pass through
- Does not take account of the role of governments and policies they may adopt to manage population change
- Cannot predict pandemics or new disease - HIV
Summary of demographic transition model
- No model is ever perfect but the DTM still has a useful descriptive purpose. The framework of stages is used to identify where a country ‘sits’ overtime and how it compares to other places
- Model is flexible as it does not define how long it will take for a country to move through the different stages
- Model would be a better predictor of change if factors other than economic development were recognised as influential
- Addition of stage 5 allowed the model to evolve but it still cannot be assumed that all countries will follow the model
- Countries may not necessarily progress smoothly through the model. Periods of standstill can occur and countries can also regress
Ageing Population
A population undergoing a rise in its median age. It occurs when fertility declines, while life expectancy remains constant or increases
Development
The use of resources to improve the quality of live in a country. This includes wealth, but it also refers to other important aspects of our lives, such as education, health and freedom of expression.
Human Development Index (HDI)
A measure of development that combines three important aspects of human well-being: life expectancy, education and income.
Link between population and development
- The highest ranking countries according to the HDI are in stage 4 (or 5) of demographic transition, suggesting a very strong link between the rate of population growth and the level of economic development.
- The countries with low human development invariably have high rates of population growth and most are in stage 2 of demographic transition.
Merits of the DTM
- Easy to understand
- Universal in concept - can be applied to all countries in the world, even though its application is more valid f or some countries than for others
- Flexible timescales - the speed of modernisation determines how quickly a country moves through stages
- Provides a starting point for the study of demographic change over time
- Enables comparisons to be made between countries