Chapter 1 - Introduction Flashcards
What are the three primary reasons why intelligence fails?
- Failure to share information
- Failure to analyze material objectively
- Failure of customer to act on intelligence
Discuss failure to share information:
-Most intelligence agencies alum secrecy over effectiveness
-Experts in an area have an information advantage, giving them reason not to share
Discuss failure to analyze material objectively: 5 bias’s / reasons
- Ethnocentric bias - projecting ones own beliefs and values into the data
- Wishful thinking - avoiding unpleasant choices
- Parochial interests - someone powerful wants something to happen
- Status quo bias - assuming events will proceed in a straight line
- Premature closure - making early judgements on data then operating under and defending that position
Discuss failure of customer to act on intelligence:
Failure to understand or act on intelligence provided
What is an SAT; provide examples
Structured Analytical Techniques ie. pattern analysis, trend identification, statistical analysis, etc
Discuss the following failure of intelligence: Operation Barbarossa
1941 Josef Stalin’s Russia was unprepared for war with Nazi Germany and failed to accept or act on intelligence that the German’s were preparing a surprise attack. When the attack came, named operation Barbarossa, the Russian front lines were surprised, trapped, and destroyed.
Discuss the following failure of intelligence: Yom Kippur War
1973 Israel’s past military successes had led to a degree of hubris, and Israel officials believed that other arab forces, specifically Egypt needed to rebuild before attacking again. This led Israel officials to dismiss intelligence reports of an impending attack from Egypt. The Egyptians launched an attack during Yom Kipper, one of the most important Jewish holidays catching the Israel’s off guard. The Israelis repulsed the attack, but there was high casualties.
What country is Osama bin Laden from?
Saudi Arabia
