Chapter 1 Flashcards

1
Q

Weather

A

Exact state of atmosphere at a particular location and time

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2
Q

Climate

A

long term patters of weather

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3
Q

Climate change

A

long term differences in weather patterns over multi-decadal periods

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4
Q

How much heat by GHG goes into oceans?

A

93%

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5
Q

Why are sea levels rising

A
  1. melting of ice
  2. water expands when warm
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6
Q

How to see climate history

A
  1. Tree rings: measurements can reveal climate variations in regions where trees experience seasons - past millenium
  2. corals: skeeltons fo these sea creatures can yield ocean’s climate conditions - millions of years
  3. speleothems (stalactites; stalagmites): cabe structures yield estimate of climate around cave - past few 100,000 years
  4. ice cores: chemical composition of ice (mainly greenland and antarctica) yeild climate estimates - past million years
  5. ocean sediment: composition of mud at sea bottom provides climate info - past tens of millions of years
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7
Q

planet cycles between which two periods

A
  1. Cold periods (ice ages)
  2. Warm periods (inter-glacial periods)
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8
Q

Global Temperature average between ice and interglacial

A

around 6 degrees C (why 1 degree warming since 19th century is huge deal – 16 times faster than average rate of warming)

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9
Q

E balance between sun and earth

A

Sun provides 340 W/m^2 to earth (global and annual avg)

– 30% incoming sunlight is reflects by clouds, aersols, etc.

total E absorbed = 238 W/m^2

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10
Q

Main GHG

A
  1. Water vapor
  2. CO2 (current [] = 415 ppm which is 130 ppm increase since industrial revolution)
  3. CH4 (0.8 ppm to 1.9 ppm)
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11
Q

CO2 trend in past 50 years

A

44% emitted CO2 released in atmosphere; 56% emitted CO2 absorbed by Ocean and land (ocean acidification + plant growth)

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12
Q

Evidence CO2 is from FF

A

due to C isotope - matches FF C isotope (mainly 12C and some 13C)

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13
Q

Global Warming Potential (GWP)

A

heat trapping power
relative to Carbon (calculated using 100 year time horizon)

  1. CH4 : 1 kg CH4 = 28 kg CO2
  2. halocarbons: 100-1000s
  3. N2O: 265
  4. O3: absorb UV and IR - while humans don’t emit O3 we emit hydrocarbons and N oxide (O3 precursors)
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14
Q

Aersol examples

A
  1. FF containing sulfur
  2. Black Carbon aerosols (soot - incomplete combustion of smoldering fire; 2 stroke gas engine)
  3. mineral dust (produced by agriculture activities (plowing, harvesting), changes in water surface (lake drying), industrial practices (cement))
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15
Q

GHG caused positive change (heating)

A

caused change to radiative forcing of 3.6 W/m^2

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16
Q

Aersols cause negative change (cooling)

A

caused change radiative forcing of 1.1 W/m^2

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17
Q

Net human contribution

A

positive change of 2.7 W/m^2 - 1.07 degrees C

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18
Q

Water vapor feedback

A

while water vapor is most prominent GHG (main source of H20 in atm is from evaporation from oceans) - it is primarily removed from atm when it rains/snows

since amount of H2O in atm is regulated by evaporation and condensation - it is fundamentally set by earth’s temperature (if earth’s temp rises, then H2O in atm rises)

thus, human h20 emissions pose no significance in comparison with oceans, BUT, due to this relationship - water vapor AMPLIFIES changed cause by climate change

warmer atm = more H2O vapor = more warming (since H2O is a GHG)

==> Increase in H2O = increase in GHG = Increase in temp

–> has potential to double, maybe triple, warming caused by CO2, alone

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19
Q

natural processes that can affect climate

A
  1. tectonic processes
    2, output of sun
  2. orbital variations
  3. unforced variability
  4. GHG
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20
Q

SSP1

A

S world: world’s economy gradually shifts towards env friendly path; with strenuous efforts to adopt renewable E, emissions are currently peaking and expected to decline through rest of the century; emissions go negative around 2075; T increase of 2 C

21
Q

SPP2

A

Follows trends of world today

-generally declining emissions over 21st century due to widespread adoption of renewable E (but slower than SSP1)
-economic growth is similar to SPP1
-temp increase of 3 C

22
Q

SPP3

A

world where economic inequality gets worse

  • leads to increasing conflict between regions
    -economic growth is slow
    -slow adaptation of new E technology
    -leaves world almost entirely dependent on FF
    -4.5 C temp rise
23
Q

SSP 5

A

World similar to SSP1, but prioritizes economic growth, rather than S

-economic growth is high
-FF power significant fraction of this growth
-%.% C temp growth

24
Q

Precipitation

A

total global precipitation is expted to increase by 3% for every degree of global average warming, but will not be linear increase spread across globe – wet areas will get wetter, dry areas drier

–> increased occurrence of floods
- increase time between rain
-increase temp = increase rate of water lost from soil by evaporation (increased drought)

therefore, rain= flood; no rain = drought

– due to increased temp, will be more rain and less snow (therefore availability of water in summer will decrease - less now melting from mountains)

25
Q

seal level rise

A

will rise 17 to 30 inches (44-76 cm) by 2100 under SPP2

-estimate sea-level will rise a few meters with every decree warming

1 possibility: sea-level rise responds slowly and takes millenia
2 possibility: tipping point is reached

26
Q

ocean acidfication

A

1/4 of CO2 emissions ends up in ocean - decreasing ocean’s pH

27
Q

extreme events

A

extreme events are stochastic (random in time)

will become more intense and more frequent

28
Q

extreme event attribution science

A

how likely would an extreme event had happened without climate change - uses 3 different sources of information

  1. statistical analysis of historical climate (can help determine likelihood that an extreme event occurring today could happen prior to human-induced warming: by itself this type of analysis can’t tell whether phenoma was caused by global warming or by something else (correlation not causality)
  2. understanding physics of phenomena (ex: warmer world = more frequent heatwaves – solid proof heat wave is consequence of climate change; for other phenomena harder to prove - ex: tornadoes (don’t have good understanding how frequency of tornadoes will be affected by climate change))
  3. computer simulation (Global Climate Models - GCM): evaluate frequency and intensity of extreme events
    -simulation can be run with and without GHG therefore impact of climate change can be quantitatively estimated (ex: simulation without climate change shows heatwaves rarely occur)
29
Q

Albedo Effect

A

decline in land and sea-ice can amplify warming beyond just GHG release - ice has a higher albedo (reflect) therefore previously covered ice regions will absorbe more solar radiation - heating up the atmosphere and thus melting more ice therefore exposing more areas to absorb more light – cyclical affect (similar to water vapor feedback)

30
Q

Polar Amplification

A

primary reason arctic and antarctic regions are warming aster than other areas on earth (1. shallower atm; 2. heat content of open water)

leads to average arctic temp that is 3/4 times that of the rest of the northern hemisphere

consequences:
-faster melting of greenland ice sheet (cause sea level rise + release of CH4 + alterations of large-scale wind patterns (northern hemisphere jet stream)

31
Q

Positive feedback

A

any self-reinforcing warming phenomena - ex: water feedback, polar amplification

a feedback loop either slows down / speeds up a change in the system

positive feedback: accelerates change

negative feedback: slows down change

–feedbacks play important role in climate tipping points

32
Q

climate tipping points

A

where enough GHG have been added to climate that climate system will undergo a large and rapid shift to an entirely new climate state

ex: 12,000 years ago - we were coming off of last ice age and climate in norther hemisphere plunged several decrees in decades due to disruption in ocean currents

33
Q

example of potential climate tipping points

A
  1. shutdown of gulf stream - major and widespread change in climate (similar to 12,000 years ago example)
  2. rapid disintegration of greeland or west antarctic ice sheets - raise sea levels by meters in a century or less
  3. thawing of permafrost and CH4 hydrates - release huge amounts of GHG into atm thus accelrating climate change
  4. shift in timing and magnitude of indian monsoon - changing seasonal rainfall (relied on by billions)

– is difficult to assess probability of a tipping point occurring

34
Q

Policy responses

A
  1. adaptation
  2. mitigation
  3. geo-engineering
35
Q

adaptation

A

physical enhancement:
1. human-built infrastructure
2. enhancement of eco-system services and functions

Adaptive responses: Can also improve human communication, processes and regulations (better warning systems)

36
Q

maladaptation

A

intended adaptation action that increases climate vulnerability

consequences:
1. increase in vulnerability
2. increase in GHG
3. imposition of disproportional burdens on the most vulnerable populations

37
Q

Carbon Intensity

A

Amount of CO2 produced / unit E

Highest C intensity:
1. coal
2. oil
3. nat gas

– while nat gas has been deemed as “cleaner” and a bridge towards renewable E, with natural gas comes risk of CH4 leakage

38
Q

Solar E

A

to satsify all human E need would requie ! M km^2 to be covered with Solar panels (0.2% earth’s surface - same as cities)

39
Q

Wind

A

One turbine = 10 MW - could satisfy with few million (especially if we place offshore)

40
Q

Problem with wind and solar

A

Intermittency - has to be balanced with dispatchable Carbon safe E sources (always available and can counteract wind and solar)

– nuclear power - risk of waste leakage - advancement with small modular reactors (SMRs): 1. physically smaller (allows for most of plant to be manufacutred off site); 2. saves cost and constructions time; 3. are simpler than traditional power plan and safer
4. less frequent refuel cycle may ease proliferation concerns

41
Q

Battery E storage

A
  1. short term (couple hours - could shift E produced at peak of solar power (noon) to peak demand (late afternoon/early evening))
  2. long term (days to weeks - could displace need for dispatchable power) –> long term storage at sufficient scale is currently not feasible

+ issue of obtaining chemicals that make batteries(Ex: cobalt - comes from politically volatile regions in Africa)

42
Q

Geo Engineering

A
  1. Solar Radiation management (inject sulfur intro stratosphere to act as aerosol) - side effects: change precipitation patterns; lead to misunderstanding and cause political destabilization
  2. CO2 removal: CCUS (carbon capture utilization and storage) - removes CO2 from exhaust gas of a power plant
  3. Direct Air Capture
  4. BEECS (Bio-E C capture and sequestration) - plants are grown and then burned to product power - CO2 produced is capture and sequestered
43
Q

Mitigation targets

A

US: cut 50% emissions below 2004 levels by 2030; NZ by 2050

EU: 55% emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2030; NZ by 2050

in reality, commitments put us on tracker for 2.3-3 degree warming in 2100 with continued warming

44
Q

Carbon budget

A

carbon budget = limit future emissions to 1.5 trillion tonnes

humans have already emitted 2.2. trillion tonees

with present day emissions exceeding 40 B tonnes / year, we will exceed budget by 2050s

Limit for 1.5 : 580 B tonnes (on track to exceed in 2030s)

45
Q

to keep 1.5 threshold

A

need to decline 50% emissions by 2030 and reach NZ by 2050

46
Q

to keep 2 threshold

A

decline 50% emissions by 2040s and reach NZ by 2080

47
Q

how much warming is predicted for 21st century

A

3 degrees C

48
Q
A