3: Decision Making Flashcards

1
Q

What are the 4 key design choices for the decision-making process?

A
  1. Composition
  2. Context
  3. Communication
  4. Control
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2
Q

Questions to determine 1. Composition

A
  • Who should be involved in the process?
  • Who has relevant knowledge and expertise?
  • How will they be involve?
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3
Q

Question to determine 2. Context

A
  • What are the norms and ground rules for the group?
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4
Q

Question to determine 3. Communication

A
  • How will the individuals interact with one another?
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5
Q

Questions to determine 4. Control

A
  • How will the leader control the process and the content of the decision?
  • How will the leader make the final call and communicate the rationale?
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6
Q

What are the attributes of a quality decision-making process?

A
  1. Conflict
  2. Consensus
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7
Q

What are the benefits of conflict?

A
  • Leads to critical thinking
  • Generates multiple alternatives
  • People will ask more questions and offer differing opinions
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8
Q

What are the two forms of conflict?

A
  1. Affective
  2. Cognitive
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9
Q

Define affective conflict

A

Involves personal friction, personality clashes, and outbursts - caused by lack of curiosity and stakes positions

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10
Q

Define cognitive conflict

A

Involves debate about the issue

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11
Q

How do you encourage cognitive conflict?

A
  • Establish ground rules
  • Clarify roles
  • Ask curious, non-threatening questions
  • Revisit key facts
  • Gain agreement in small areas
  • Create scenario where parties must argue for their opponents’ positions
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12
Q

What are the benefits of consensus in the decision making process?

A
  • Improves odds of smooth implementation
  • People are invested in how the decision was made
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13
Q

What are some techniques to create consensus?

A
  • Provide overview of plan to make a decision
  • Refrain from stating your initial position as the leader
  • Engage in active listening
  • Explain the rationale for the decision
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14
Q

What is system 1 thinking?

A
  • Quick
  • Instinctive
  • Automatic
  • Emotional
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15
Q

What is system 2 thinking?

A
  • Rational
  • Slower
  • Complex decisions
  • More logical
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16
Q

What are some risk-related biases?

A
  • Availability heuristic
  • Representative heuristic
  • Base rate neglect
  • Law of small numbers
  • Not recognizing randomness
  • Anchoring and adjustment
17
Q

Define availability heuristic

A

Decision makers likely to overestimate unlikely events if associated memories are vivid

18
Q

Define representative heuristic

A

What is more cognitively accessible in the mind is more prevalent

19
Q

Define base rate neglect

A

Decision-makers fail to take into account base-rate information

20
Q

Define law of small numbers

A

Decision-makers often fail to take into account sample size in determining the stability of percentages.

21
Q

Define “not recognizing randomness”

A

Examples include WW2 bombing of London, ”hot hand” in basketball, and ”cancer clusters” – also sequence of patterns

22
Q

Define anchoring and adjustment

A

A phenomenon wherein an individual bases their initial ideas and responses on one point of information and makes changes driven by that starting point.

23
Q

Define illusory superiority

A

When the majority believes that they are better, more likely to succeed, or more skilled than the average

24
Q

Define the Dunning-Kruger Effect

A

A cognitive bias where people who are low in an ability do not recognize that the are in fact low on that ability and overestimate their likelihood

25
Q

Define Motivated Reasoning

A

Motivation may affect reasoning through reliance on a biased set of cognitive processes–that is, strategies for accessing, constructing, and evaluating beliefs.

26
Q

Define bounded awareness

A

A focusing failure when the mind is working on a specific task and has difficulty processing information that is not about that specific task.

27
Q

What was “missing” in the Carter racing simulation

A

Counter-factual thinking that allows us to vet the completeness of information that we need in order to make an informed decision