Voting behaviour Flashcards
Define expressive voting
voting on the basis of party attachment, political ideology, or social group membership
Define strategic voting
- voting to produce an election outcome which is as close as possible to ones policy preferences
What is a political cleavage
a division in society which produces alignment between a group of voters and a party
Define Dealignment
the erosion of political cleavages, and their replacement with individualistic voting
Clevage system- What is the historical divisions hypothesis
Lipset & Rokken 1967
Mobilization is fixed at the time of suffrage extension.
Cleavages that existed at that time largely persist to today
Clevage system- What is strategic mobilisation thesis
Posner 2001; Laitin 1986
Some cleavages are more electorally pivotal than other. Small religious or ethnic minorities are rarely mobilized
Clevage system- What is Cultural similarity hypothese
Duning & Harrison 2010 cultural similarity determine likelihood of mobilization
What are the 4 causes for dealignment?
1 - Economic growth + prosperity provides the WC with economic security thus no longer the primary goal for these voters
2 - Expansion of public sector - growth to 40-50% of GDP in the public sector which leads to new social groups and interests
3 -Expansion of higher education - leads to growing social mobility which leads to new cognitive thinking
4 - Mass Media - replacement of partisan party controlled media
What does Norris & Inglehart (2016) find about why people support populist parties
- cultural factors are the most significant explanation for why people vote for populist parties
- a rise in tolerance for diverse identities, sexualities, abortions and feminism has created a negative effect on the older sector of the selectorate - created a counter-revolutionary retro backlash
- this silent revolution to restore traditional norms and values makes them appeal to populist groups
The spatial model of politics
- Voters have “preferences” about a range of policies
- These preferences are “single-peaked” => each voter has an “ideal point” in a single-or
multi-dimensional policy space - expressive and strategic voting
Why do people vote strategically?
Local elections - To influence the election outcome in a constituency of the candidate a person most prefers has no chance of being elected, then vote
for the “closest” candidate from amongst the candidates who have a reasonable
chance of being elected
National elections - To influence government formation and policy outcomes
of the party a person most prefers has no chance of influencing government
formation or might form a coalition with a party which is further away from a
person’s preference, then vote for a party which is “further” away, but which will
lead to a policy outcome closer to a person’s ideal policy
Case study of voting strategically
2017 & 2019 UK General Elections
Approximately 20-25% voted for a party
which was not their first preference
- With those who preferred UKIP & Brexit voting for Conservatives as they were more likely to succeed then their first choice
- And people who preferred the lib dems voting for labour
Define Political Valence
Individuals vote based upon a “people’s judgements of the overall quality of the party leaders (Clarke et al 2004)
Most relevant when partys are both in the middle and when voters have limited knowledge
What does Anthony Fowler (2020) say about voting behaviour
(READING)
Party intoxication: voters don’t think much about policy or gov performance, instead, they are intoxicated partisans. They arbitrarily form psychological attachments to their party and blindly support that party in elections, regardless of the candidates’ policy positions, priorities, or abilities
Evidence suggests most voters are not intoxicated as a candidates ideologies and policies extert significant impact on election results. And if true it would be difficult to explain the incumbency advantage
Voters are more likely to support candidates of the same race, gender, religion, and socioeconomic status, leading scholars to claim that many votes are cast according to these forms of identity
Trump Brexit and the rise of populism - Norris & Inglehart 2016
(READING)
Populism can be explained by cultural backlash theory in reaction to aggressive cultural change. The person most threatened is a less-educated older-white-man so in turn they vote for parties that will defend the old world.
Economic insecurity - people support populism because of inequality in the workforce, industry and rural vs urban inequality. Lack of evidence but does not mean its wrong.
Believe most in the cultural backlash theory. This new cleavage is a cultural cleavage which is shaping people’s preferences in terms of how they vote. The cultural backlash theory is a vote for parties that provide solutions to the scary changes (far-right)
