Units 12-16 Flashcards
TRIAL
Occasion where random phenomena are observed
OUTCOME
Result of random phenomena noted at the end of a trial
EVENT
Combination of multiple outcomes
SAMPLE SPACE
List of all possible outcomes
How is sample space notated
S = {outcome, outcome, outcome…}
NONEXISTENT LAW OF AVERAGES/GAMBLER’S FALLACY
Belief that an outcome that hasn’t appeared in many trials is “due”
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
In the long term, after many trials, the mean will settle on one number
CONDITIONS OF LLN:
Outcomes must have the same probability for each trial, and events must be independent
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
The probability found after repeating a trial many times (LLN)
DISJOINT
Two events that cannot exist simultaneously
INDEPENDENT
Two events that don’t effect each other
THEORETICAL PROBABILITY
Probability determined by a model
How is probability notated?
P(outcome)
What is the formula for probability when every event is equally likely?
P(A) = #of outcomes A/# of total possible outcomes
PROBABILITY ASSIGNMENT RULE
Set of all possible outcomes must equal 1
COMPLEMENT
The probability of an event not happening. Is equal to 1 - P(A)
ADDITION RULE
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) only if events are disjoint
MULTIPLICATION RULE
P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B) only if events are independent