Sales forecasting Flashcards
What is intuition
A gut feeling about a product used when the product has little data
What is brainstorming
Lots of people come together and give a verity of ideas on a problem shown
Disadvantages of delphi technique
1.Takes a long long time
2.Assumes people will come to agree but they may just stick with their original thoughts
Advantages of delphi technique
1.Flexible to be used in lots of different scenarios
2.Data is recorded to be used at any time
3.Provides a structure for people to make decisions
What is the delphi method
Experts answer a questionnaire independently then the results are gathered. These results are shared with everyone then they do it again and after an amount of time all experts end up coming to a agreed answer.
3 market data methods
1.Survey customers intentions - what they will do in future?
2.Direct sales information- sales staff notice change in trends of consumers
3.Test marketing- testing customers response to a product before release e.g getting a group to try new food
Drawbacks of time series analysis
1.It’s a prediction no guarantee it happens
2.Historically data is not always a good indication of future trends
3.Hard to predict future
Usefulness of time series analysis
1.Help business plan ahead
2.Financial planning
3.Hr planning , right number of employees
4.less likely of unexpected surprises
5.Production planning, right number of supply’s
What is correlation
A measure between the relationship of 2 factors plotted on a scatter graph
What’s the point of a 3 point moving average
To see the general rate of sales over time.
4 types of time series analysis
1.Seasonal analysis- see if there’s a pattern in sales and different seasons
2.Trend analysis- general trend over years
3.Cycle analysis- relationship between demand and economic cycle
4.Random factor analysis- provide exposition for unusual sales activity
What is time series analysis?
Using evidence from past sales to predict future sales patterns.
When to use quantitive data?
When there is lots of historical data available
2 quantitive methods of sales forecasting
1.Times series analysis
2.Use of market research and data
4 qualitative sales forecasting methods.
Qualative:
1.Delphi technique
2.Brainstorming
3.Intuition
4.Expert opinion