lecture 1

Question 1

scientific research

Answer 1

looks at: events, decisions and actions

• what causes events, decisions, actions
• what are the outcomes of events, decisions and actions
• what is the process behind events, decisions and actions (how does it come about)

interplay with theory (often starting point)

role of methods and procedures to look at and gather evidence and data

• methods follow procedures

analysis: description & theory/hypothesis testing

Question 2

theory

Answer 2

often a starting point to decide on research area/topic

theory = answer to why? how? = explanations and predictions (of the world) = simplified model of reality

good theory = could/should allows to make predictions about the future: what will happen if…
*we are bad at making predictions, better at describing/explaining what happened in the past

Question 3

naive science vs scientific method

Answer 3

naive science = insufficient/incomplete data either no inquiry or biased inquiry

• based on personal experience
• based on intuition = jumping to conclusion because it makes sense, e.g. gamblers fallacy (if 3x A, than probably 4th time also A) or drunken search (search for something at easy places rather than where it probably is)
• reliance on authority = common, we can’t know everything, but sometimes we should question people who claim authority
• appeals to tradition, custom and faith

scientific method =

• systematic process with rules and procedures (in order to correctly/rightfully generalize) -> increases chance of correct conclusions
• falsifiable theories: you need to be able to show that a theory is wrong
• replication (often not gotten enough attention): old articles need to be able to be tested to see if they are still correct/relevant
• reflective & self-critical (e.g. look for alternative explanations, look at quality of methods etc.) = attitude
• cumulative & self-correcting process
• cyclical process: question ->research -> findings raise new questions

Question 4

typical steps scientific research process

Answer 4

(the wheel of science)

1. Research Question / puzzle (something we can’t immediately explain or application of a theory to a new case/situation)
2. conceptualization (define key aspects of something you’re interesting in)
3. operationalization (definition to something that can be observed in the real world = theoretical to practical/observable)
4. research design (e.g. case study V large-N, depends on what you study + how you operationalize)
5. observation (data collection)
6. data analysis (statistical analysis V interpretation etc.)
7. interpretation (what does it mean, answer the RQ or part of it (most likely))

!where is theory? in the middle of the wheel: it is in the middle of each step along the way

Question 5

why Research Methods?

Answer 5

• help move from intuitions and anecdotes/random observations -> systematic evidence
• question and problem-driven (important starting points)
• research methods are useful tools, provide transparency and replicability
• methodological pluralism and diversity (in all fields, but esp. polsci)

!methods can be seen as constraints, but also as opportunities (following rules gives credibility, enables community, makes it easier for others to understand)

Question 6

methods polsci vs IR

Answer 6

not really different methods

methods we discuss are social science methods

diff fields may have different preferences for designs, but basic principles are the same across the disciplines

Question 7

example: global warming

Answer 7

= long-running issue

• among scientists: long consensus that global warming is real (if measures are done correctly there is no other possible conclusion)
• in politics: no consensus if it is real or fake
  !the data available/used influences the conclusions that you draw (e.g. you could argue that climate change stopped progressing 2000-2020 BUT if you looked at 2020-now you see it is excellerating again)

e.g. The great global warming swindle (Durkin) = debunks idea of climate change
e.g. Trump = China made it up

Question 8

why healthy skepticism is good

Answer 8

main point : replication is important

e.g. nature international journal of science: high-profile journals only 62% of articles stood after replication

*kan een vertekend beeld geven: not all articles are published, only exciting articles that offer big conclusions (some of them just based on chance, that can’t be replicated)
- e.g. often in psychology

!!media tends to mislead people: more absolute than the research is (e.g. report observed correlation as causation)