TOPIC 12 - Trend thinking and trend audit Flashcards
What is a trend in the context of strategic foresight?
trend is a pattern in recorded data from history that signifies change, reflecting the effects of forces in the external, contextual environment.
How can trends influence business operations?
Trends lead to outcomes that differ from the current situation, impacting external operational conditions for businesses with implications for products, services, and markets.
Why is it problematic to assume a trend line represents the future?
Trend lines often do not continue unchanged into the future; they are influenced by various dynamic forces which need to be understood for accurate forecasting.
What is DEFT in trend archaeology?
DEFT stands for Drivers, Enablers, Friction, and Turners (or Blockers), which are categories of forces that influence the strength and direction of trends.
What are “Drivers” in the context of trends?
Drivers are forces that actively push a trend forward; a trend persists as long as its underlying drivers are active.
How do “Enablers” affect trends?
Enablers facilitate the progress of drivers, creating favorable conditions for a trend to emerge or continue.
What role do “Friction” forces play in the context of trends?
Friction forces are natural delays or resistance that slow down the emergence or diffusion of a trend.
What are “Blockers” or “Turners” in trend development?
These are intentional counter-driving forces aimed at stopping, reversing, or changing the direction of a trend, often influenced by the politics of the future.
What is the importance of conducting a trend audit?
To accurately assess the strength and reliability of a trend as a guide to the future and to refine projections by understanding the interplay of various forces affecting the trend.
What are the steps in the trend audit process?
