Trading MTR Bottoms Flashcards
When a Reversal Setup is small what is more like a Major Reversal or a Minor Reversal?
a Minor Reversal is more likely due to the small Reversal Setup.
If anything it is better to look to Sell - it is a Higher Probability (There is a Low1 and a Low2 setup at the bottom for a short)
Final Bear Leg is usually WEAK but is can also be a Sell Climax
Final Bear Leg is usually WEAK but is can also be a Sell Climax
In the Bear Channel going down you want a relatively broad channel to increase the probability of a successful MTR.
As the shows Bulls and Bears are both able to make money and the market is than in BO making a wedge bottom more likely to be successful
Legs need at Least 5-10 Bars or else a Minor Reversal is Likely
In the Bear Channel going down you want a relatively broad channel to increase the probability of a successful MTR.
As the shows Bulls and Bears are both able to make money and the market is than in BO making a wedge bottom more likely to be successful
Legs need at Least 5-10 Bars or else a Minor Reversal is Likely
Possible Bottom (3 pushes down = Wedge Bottom) what should I be doing now?
Seeing this Wedge bottom forming I should begin to start anticipating a MTR and awaiting for the correct pattern to form inline with this context for a profitable trade
Whenever you are looking for any kind of Trade it is always good to Anticipate and see what the market is trying to do. And if you can see a PATTERN setting up then you’re ready to take the trade.
Whenever you are looking for any kind of Trade it is always good to Anticipate and see what the market is trying to do. And if you can see a PATTERN setting up then you’re ready to take the trade.
Whenever you see a Bear Channel how should you view and what percentage is the a Bull BO versus a Bear BO?
You should see a bear channel as a Bull Flag and there is a 75% chance of a Bull BO (Trend Reversal or Sideways) and 25% of a Bear BO (Trend Resumption)
Traders always need a Minimum Profit Target or else they will have a losing Strategy
Traders always need a Minimum Profit Target or else they will have a losing Strategy
When you Buy the Reversal at a MTR Bottom is the market still in AIS or has the AIS ended?
When you Buy a MTR Bottom the market is still AIS meaning the odds of a profit are only 40% of at least 2x Risk. It becomes 60% only after it clearly becomes AIL(Always In Long) or usually after a strong Bull BO OR 3 or more strong bull bars
At this potential MTR Bottom what would create a higher probability for the Bulls?
If the Bulls get a Strong Buy Signal Bar this increases probability.
What do the Bulls expect of this Bear Trend after the Bear Flag @ the bottom?
The Bulls expect this Bear Trend Resumption to Fail as we broke the Bear channel and chances are we are getting a final leg down(sell climax) before a MTR up
LL MTR formed a DB after Bull break of Bear Channel Trend. the DB failed a BO @ Support with bad follow-through, Bulls went long at support and long @ the 2nd Entry H1
LL MTR formed a DB after Bull break of Bear Channel Trend. the DB failed a BO @ Support with bad follow-through, Bulls went long at support and long @ the 2nd Entry H1
When Traders are looking for a Major LL MTR what kind of evidence do they need from the Bulls?
They need some evidence of strong Bull Bars from the Bulls
When a Channel is this tight what is it on a higher TF chart?
It is a BO on a higher TF Chart
*ONLY LOOK TO SELL
Beginners see these 4 Bull Bars at the Bottom of the trend and thinks a new Bull Trend.
They buy every “Major” reversal but these are not Major they’re minor.
More Evidence is required to solidify a MTR.
After a Tight Bear Channel it is more likely 4 Bull Bars are not enough buying pressure for the Bulls to take control and create a Trend
Beginners see these 4 Bull Bars at the Bottom of the trend and thinks a new Bull Trend.
They buy every “Major” reversal but these are not Major they’re minor.
More Evidence is required to solidify a MTR.
After a Tight Bear Channel it is more likely 4 Bull Bars are not enough buying pressure for the Bulls to take control and create a Trend
When an Expert looks at all of these reversals he sees Bears taking profits to reduce their risk and he sees bears selling every-time the price gets back to the MA.
Why? Because the strength is just not great enough to convert this Bear Trend into a Bull Trend
Until there is a CLEAR REVERSAL the Bears will continue to SELL
When an Expert looks at all of these reversals he sees Bears taking profits to reduce their risk and he sees bears selling every-time the price gets back to the MA.
Why? Because the strength is just not great enough to convert this Bear Trend into a Bull Trend
Until there is a CLEAR REVERSAL the Bears will continue to SELL
Can a Minor Reversal Setup lead to a Major Reversal?
Yes it can because after the Bear BO there was a VERY STRONG Reversal up and Bull Bars closing on their highs can generate enough Buying Pressure to create a Major Reversal up
Note - it is also important to perhaps look at the past several days to perhaps understand why this minor reversal converted into a Major Reversal
There is no BEST ENTRY SETUP - Anytime is a Good Time to Enter, Endless series of setups
There is no BEST ENTRY SETUP - Anytime is a Good Time to Enter, Endless series of setups
Can strong setups fail?
Yes Sometimes Strong Setups can Fail, look here, you got stopped out with a loss before the market took off to the upside. The MTR only has a 40% chance of a reversal up(down) so sometimes the perfect setup does fail and we get a LL MTR
After getting stopped out on this entry with a Strong setup should I look to buy again?
Yes, after getting stopped out look to Buy again, why? Look at the chart below
Let’s say you took this Buy looking for a Swing up, where should I take profit?
Minimum Target is 2x Actual Risk, it is ok to take partial profits off(or all off) @ 2x Actual or Initial Risk
However if the markets looks as though it will go further than 2x Actual/Initial Risk it is ok to hold on to part of my trade because the Bulls are making a strong case with a strong BO with strong follow-through. Odds we are going HIGHER.