probability trees Flashcards

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1
Q

Expexted value (E(x)

A

tak jak na menedżerskiej
E(x) = Xn*P(xn)+…+

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2
Q

Variance (of e(x))

A

p(x1)(x1-E(x))^2+…+p(xn)(xn-E(x))^2

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2
Q

unconditional propabilities/total porbability

A

P(x1) = P(x|S+)P(S+)+P(x|s-)P(s-)

probability of x1 happening

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3
Q

Bayes

A

P(Sn) = P(E|Sn)/P(E)P(Sn)
1. start of a total probability P(x|S+)
P(S+)+P(x|s-)P(s-)
2. divide P(x|S+)
P(S+)/total probability = P(sn|e)

P(x|S+) = given that we are in expansion what is the propability of stock going up
P(S+|x) = given that the stock go up what is the probability of being in expansion

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4
Q

exclusive

A

na wyłącznośc

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5
Q

unconditional expectation

A

E(x)

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6
Q

conditional expectation

A

E(X|S)

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7
Q

conditional probability

A

P(X|S)

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8
Q

unconditional probability

A

P(X)

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9
Q

prior

A

the first one

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