2.2 Financial Planning Flashcards
(45 cards)
What do sales forecasts do?
Predict future revenue based on past sales figures
What do sales forecasts focus on?
What will happen in the future to:
- the volume and value of sales
- the size of the market
- sales as a result of promotional activity
- sales as a result of cyclical factors
What are sales forecasts important for?
Supporting planning and can improve the validity of cash flow forecasts
What do businesses use sales forecasts to do?
Determine resource requirements in a variety of ways, including:
- how many staff will be needed?
- how much stock will be required?
- does the capacity need to be expanded (or reduced)?
- does the equipment need to be upgraded, replaced or increased (or decreased)?
- how much and which type of finance will be required?
- is promotional activity e.g. advertising required - and when?
What are the factors affecting sales forecasts?
- seasonal variations (e.g. sales of basic home items increase when students start uni in September)
- fashion
- long term trends (consumer behaviour, attitudes and spending habits change over time)
- economic growth (increased income = higher forecasted sales)
- inflation (reduces consumer spending power)
- unemployment (high = less luxury + normal goods bought
- interest rates (when high borrow more expensive so Businesses that sell products that consumers frequently buy on credit may therefore adjust their sales forecasts downward)
- exchange rates (when the value of the pound falls against other global currencies, overseas consumer will find British exports cheaper)
What should sales forecasts consider?
Sales forecasts should consider short-term actions of competitors such as sales promotions as well as longer-term strategies such as changes to product ranges and expansion plans
What are the difficulties of sales forecasting?
Effective sales forecasting requires skill, time and the accurate use of timely data, smaller businesses in particular may lack the experience to construct, analyse and interpret sales forecasts
It is difficult to avoid experience bias (e.g. opinions of the future based on experiences in the past)
Sales forecasts will rarely reflect the full range of external influences that can affect future inflows, such as fashions, trends and the actions of competitors
There is a significant amount of data available for businesses to consider when constructing sales forecasts
Internal data, such as previous sales figures, will be a key source of information when constructing forecasts
Selecting the most appropriate external data to support sales forecasts is extremely challenging and will require careful evaluation
What is sales volume?
Sales volume is the number of units sold by a business
E.g. the number of Harry Styles album download purchases
What is sales revenue?
Sales Revenue is the total value of the units sold by a business
E.g the revenue earned by Apple Music from sales of music downloads
Sales revenue is a key business performance measure and must be calculated to identify profit
How is sales revenue calculated?
Selling price x number of units sold
What are fixed costs?
Costs that do not change as the level of output changes
E.g. building rent, salaries, insurance
What are variable costs?
Costs that vary directly with output
These increase as output increases and decrease as output decreases
E.g. raw material costs
What is total costs?
The sum of the fixed + variable costs
How is total variable cost calculated?
Variable cost x quantity
How is average total cost calculated (cost per unit)?
Total cost/quantity
How is variable cost per unit calculated?
Total variable costs/quantity
Why does average total costs decrease as output increases until a certain point?
As a firm grows, it can increase its scale of output generating efficiencies that lower its average total costs (AC) of production
These efficiencies are called economies of scale
As a firm continues increasing its scale of output, it will reach a point where its average total costs (AC) will start to increase
The reasons for the increase in the average costs are called diseconomies of scale
What is contribution?
A product’s selling price - the variable costs
How can contribution be calculated?
Selling price per unit - variable cost per unit
Why is contribution called contribution?
It is called contribution as this amount contributes towards paying off the fixed costs of the business
Once the fixed costs have been paid off, then the contribution starts to contribute to the profits of the business
What is the break even point?
Where the total revenue earned from a product is exactly equal to the total costs (the business is making neither a profit nor a loss)
How is the break even point calculated?
Fixed costs/contribution (Selling price per unit - variable cost per unit)
Always round UP to the nearest whole number because only whole products can be sold
What does identifying the break even point allow a business to do?
Understand how many items it needs to produce and sell to cover all costs before it starts to make a profit
Each subsequent unit sold past this point will generate profit for the business
What is the margin of safety?
The difference between the actual level of output of a business and its break even level of output