Coalition Formation

Question 1

What are the possible outcomes from a “hung parliaments”?

Answer 1

(1) a fresh election
(2) two or more competitive parties form a coalition that guarantees a majority of seats
(3) minority government - either single or multi party

Question 2

How long did it take Belgium to form a government in 2010/11?

Answer 2

541 days

Question 3

What are the two office-seeking theories?

Answer 3

Minimum winning

Minimum size

Question 4

Describe minimum winning

Answer 4

Outcome will be coalition with minimal number of parties possible to avoid sharing spoils of office

Question 5

What does Riker (1962) say?

Answer 5

when the resource to be shared out is fixed “participants create coalitions just as large as they believe will ensure winning and no larger”

Question 6

Describe minimum size

Answer 6

Outcome will be a coalition whose seat share is closest to 50% +1
Predicts that two large parties would not coalesce as lots of MPs would be competing for cabinet seats.

Question 7

Describe policy-seeking theory

Answer 7

Idea that parties will coalesce with those adjacent on a left-right spectrum.
Coalitions are ideologically based.

Question 8

Describe Laver and Shepsle’s Portfolio Allocation Model

Answer 8

Idea that parties are interested in policy, but different parties will have different levels of policy interest.
E.g. Green parties and the environment.
Coalition will allow parties to take ownership of these areas.

Question 9

What does Warwick (2006) say about policy horizons?`

Answer 9

Parties have different policy horizons, i.e. they differ in terms of their willingness to compromise on policy in order to win office

Question 10

What do Laver and Schofield (1990) say about policy-based theories?

Answer 10

It gives centre parties a privileged position - they can sway either way and more likely to be included in coalitions.

Question 11

What does Gamson (1961) say about large parties in coalitions?`

Answer 11

They make less compromises.
There is a near proportionality between the no. of ministers a party has and the no. of seats it contributes to the coalition.

Question 12

What does Warwick (1996) say about extremist parties and anti-system parties?

Answer 12

They are consistently excluded from government formation.

Question 13

What did Döring and Hellström (2013) find?

Answer 13

• most cabinets in West Europe are minimum winning but significantly higher numbers of minority cabinets in Central East European democracies (where party systems are less structured)
• the odds of getting into gov 3x higher if included in previous gov (incumbency effect)
• odds of getting into gov 1.5/2.5x higher if previous experience of government
• FOUND: in the west, party’s increased distance from the median party reduces probability of becoming gov members