4.1 Case studies of 3 GEs Flashcards
(88 cards)
1
Q
6
What are the social factors (long-term) that affect voting behaviour?
A
- Class
- Age
- Region
- Gender
- Ethnicity
- Education
2
Q
5
What are the non-social factors (short-term) that affect voting behaviour?
A
- valence issues (party/leader image)
- salient issues
- party manifesto and campaigns
- tactical voting
- opinion polls
3
Q
2
How do social factors affect voting behaviour
A
- ‘Political socialisation’ - upbringings and environment
- Rationality - people more likely to vote for party that will advance their group’s interests
4
Q
What are the social class categories?
A
A - higher managerial/professional workers (e.g. business owners, lawyers)
B - middle managers and professionals (e.g. teachers)
C1 - clerical workers (e.g. office clerks)
C2 - skilled manual (e.g. plumbers)
D - unskilled (e.g. factory workers)
E - pensioners, unemployed (e.g. job seekers)
5
Q
4
Describe class dealigment
A
- Process where individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a certain class (so class ≠ voting behaviour)
- ‘Change over time’
- No longer reliable predictor - ‘Red Wall’ switch clearest example of this
- Can be expressed in other ways (e.g. level of education)
6
Q
3
What are the causes of class dealigment?
A
- Changing class system - manual workforce decline - ‘traditional’ wc made way for new’ wc
- Cross-class locations - decline in trade union membership and rise in home ownership
- Embourgeoisement - affluence has meant the wc have become mc
7
Q
1
Give statistics on the decrease in the manual workforce?
A
manual workforce shrunk from 58% in 1961 to 29% in 2013
8
Q
6
Describe partisan dealigment
A
- Triggered by class dealigment
- Process where individuals no longer identify themselves on a long-term basis by being associated with a certain political party
- Scotland - Lab 41 seats (2010) vs SNP 56 seats (2015)
- Fewer people strongly attached to one party
- 1979 - 81% voted Con or Lab
- 2010 - 65% voted Con or Lab
9
Q
3
What are the causes of partisan dealigment
minus class dealigment
A
- inc edu - use rational choice theory to approach policies
- impact of media - wider sources of news (esp broadcast), less dependent on party-supporting newspapers
- Ideological change - shift in party policy (e.g. New Lab)
10
Q
3 (short points)
To what extent is social class important in GEs?
A
Finish
11
Q
4
Describe the effect of age on voting behaviour
A
- Age has replaced class as most sig factor
- Pivotal switchover age - 39 - explained by greater financial pressures/considerations
- Older voters more likely to turnout
- YouGov 2019: every 10 yrs someone ages, they are 8% less likely to vote Lab
12
Q
Give a statistic that displays higher turnouts among older voters
A
2015 GE: 43% (18-24 ), 78% (65+)
13
Q
2
What are the reasons for age demographic-based voting
A
- Lab policy pull to young - tuition fees 2017/2019 + progressive policies
- Con policy pull to old - pension benefits (e.g. triple-lock) + harder on immigration
14
Q
2
Give stats that show age-based split voting in 2017
A
- 18-24: Con 27%
- 65+: Con 61%
15
Q
5
Describe the effect of region on voting behaviour
A
- Concentrated support
- Scotland - currently largely SNP, Con succeed in rural border areas
- London - inner = Lab, outer = Con - affected by ethnic diversity and suburban affluence
- Some surprise results e.g. Cambridge is a Lab area
- N-S partisan divide somewhat diluted by 2019 red wall fall, remaining political divide over brexit
16
Q
2 regions - 3 major parties
Give stats relating to the 2019 GE on region-based voting
A
- NE England: Con 28%, Lab 43%, LD 7%
- London: Con 32%, Lab 48%, LD 15%
17
Q
Relating to 3 major parties
Describe Brexit’s effect on voting behaviour
A
- Con support grew in strong leave areas (Red Wall), fell in strong remain areas
- Lab support fell more in strong leave areas
- LD support grew more in strong remain areas (revoke article 50)
18
Q
6
Describe the effect of gender on voting behaviour
A
- Minimal - but could still be sigificant
- Young women voters tend to vote Lab or LD
- Lab introduced all women shortlists
- Decline in effect
- 1979 - larger majority of Con over Lab for female vote than male vote
- 2017 - closer gap between 2 major parties for female vote than male vote
19
Q
Give a stat that shows young women are more likely to vote Lab
A
Age 18-24 (2019): 65% women voted Lab vs 46% men
Lab was most still pop in this age bracket
20
Q
2 stats + 1 date
Give stats that show a virtually non-existent gender split in voting
A
- 2019 election
- Con: Men 46%, Women 44% (2pt gap)
- Lab: Men 31%, Women 35% (4pt gap)
21
Q
4
Describe the effect of ethnicity on voting behaviour
A
- Significant factor
- Immigrants, BAME tend to vote Lab (e.g. 2010 60%)
- exceptions - Hindu communities have much larger Con support - growing wealth/aspiration
- Jews historically tend to vote Lab - declined under Corbyn’s premiership (Luciana Berger MP left party - later rejoined)
22
Q
Give an example of a BAME area with high Lab support
A
East Ham (76% Lab support at 2019 GE)
23
Q
2
What are reasons for ethnic-based voting
A
- Push from Con - current rhetoric and historic attitudes (Powell)
- Pull to Lab - welfare policies, more black Lab MPs (e.g. David Lammy), race relations acts
24
Q
What are the limits of ethnic-based voting?
A
There is a concentration of ethnic minority groups in urban industrial centres such as London (e.g. East Ham)
25
(…) is when voters make rational voting choices that align with their personal objectives
Rational Choice Theory
26
# 3
What are valence issues?
* Valence concerns general image of party/leader
* Closely tied to governing competency
* Specific issues or range of issues
27
# 4
What are the dfferent types of valence issues? (with examples)
* Governing competency (e.g. Con defeat in 1997 with ‘cash for questions’)
* Economic competence (e.g. 2019 lab spending plans - £1.2trn)
* Party unity - voters trust united parties but not disunited ones (e.g. Con defeats in 2001 and 2005 partly due to divisions over Europe)
* Image of leaders (e.g. Clegg failure in 2015)
28
# 2
Describe salient issues
* Important issues relevant to specific election
* Shape election campaigns (e.g. ‘Get Brexit Done’)
29
# 3
Why is leader image becoming more influential?
* Rise in ‘presidentialism’
* Monopilisation of media focus
* Greater say over policy (e.g. 2022 Lab conference PR)
30
# 5
What are the different parts of leader image
* experience
* personality
* perceived charisma
* ideology
* ‘anti-establishment’ image e.g. Corbyn
31
Give a stat to explain the impact of leader image on voting behaviour
Survey found 43% of defected Lab voters in 2019 voted on basis of leadership
32
# 3Ps
Evaluate the view that party campaigning and manifestos are the most important factor behind voting behaviour
P1: **Pop of manifesto policies** - higher turnouts (e.g. ‘youthquake’) vs **social (ethnic) factors** - policies naturally positioned to appeal to diff groups (e.g. East Ham 2019) - ‘reduces electoral volaitility’
P2: **Attack ads** (e.g. Sunak child sexual abuser) vs **Valence issues** - party/leader image (e.g. party image of Con in 1997)
P3: **Unexpected campaigning events** (e.g. ‘bigotgate’) vs **short campaign periods of 4-6 weeks** (e.g. LD 2010 - 1pc inc)
33
Give a stat that displays the 2017 ‘youthquake’
18-24 age group turnout jumped by 11 points in 2017 from 2015
34
Younger and ethnic voters tend to display (…) levels of disillusion and apathy
greater
35
# 3
What factors affect turnout?
* Closeness of election (59% in 2001, 78% in 1992)
* Greater differences in policy positions of major 2 parties (2017 Lab manfiesto radically diff to Con - led to youthquake)
* Salient issues (2017 69% turnout highest since 1997)
36
# 2
Give some examples of tactical voting
* Electoral Reform Society estimated 6.5m participated in tactical voting in 2017
* SwapMyVote
37
# 2
Give some examples of limits to tactical voting
* LD/Green/PC remain electoral pact in 2019 failed - seat total of bloc went down by 1
* SNP won 56/59 Scottish seats in 2015 despite attempts by opp parties to unite behind same pro-union candidates
38
# 1
Why are big tent parties (arguably) successful?
Voters more interested in image and policies as opposed to social factors e.g. age, ethnicity, gender
39
# 3
Describe the wider political context of the 1979 election
* Winter of discontent (1978)
* Shift to New Right in Con policy after economic hardships
* Callaghan govt loses no confidence vote by one vote
40
# 5
Describe the outcome of the 1979 election
* Con won 43 seat majority
* Conservative victory with 44% of vote
* 5.2% swing to Con - largest since 1945
* Lab lost 62 seats
* HoC dominated by Lab/Con (608/635 seats) - little representation for smaller parties
41
# 2
Describe the turnout in the 1979 election
* Turnout of 76% - average for the time
* inc of 4% from Oct 1974
42
# 3
Describe voting behaviour in the 1979 election
* Growing MC and declining WC gave Con natural advantage
* Con support: men 43%, women 47%
* Con won 41% of C2 vote, an inc of 20pcs from 1974
43
# 3
Describe the valence issues of the 1979 election
* Governing competency - ‘winter of discontent’ + no-confidence vote
* Economic competence - Lab associated with high inflation
* Party unity - Lab divided between left and right + Whitelaw
44
# 1
Describe the salient issues of the 1979 election
* Extent to which govt should regulate industry became central issue
45
# 2
Describe the party policies and manifestos of the 1979 election
* Con promise of expanded home ownership proved popular
* Con also promised to reduce role of trade unions and control money supply (monetarism)
46
# 2
Describe the impact of leadership in the 1979 election
* Callaghan polled ahead of Thatcher
* Thatcher embraced ‘housewife economics’
47
# 2
Describe the impact of the campaign in the 1979 election
* Lab ran poor campaign implying that Britain should not elect a woman
* Con hired Saatchi brothers, an advertising company, that developed famous ‘Labour isn’t working’ campaign
48
# 1
Describe the impact of the media in the 1979 election
* The Sun - ‘Crisis? What Crisis?’ headline
49
# 2
Describe the wider political context of the 1997 election
* Slow and steady econ growth from 1994 onwards
* Tory sleaze (sex and money) scandals
50
# 2
What did Martin Bell do?
independent, anti-sleaze candidate Martin Bell ousted sleaze-ridden Tory MP Neil Hamilton in Tatton (took money from Mohammed Al-Fayed)
Lab/LD stood down in contest
51
# 5
Describe the outcomes of the 1997 election
* Labour won a majority of 179
* Labour won 43% of the vote
* Lab won 418 seats, the highest number ever won by a single party
* Con 165 (-178), LD 48 (+28)
* Defence Sec Portillo lost seat - ‘Portillo moment’
52
# 4
Describe the turnout in the 1997 election
* National turnout of 71%
* Down 6.3pcs from 1992
* Next elec in 2001 recorded a turnout of just 59%
* High compared with modern turnouts - e.g. 67.3% (2019)
53
# 3
Describe age-related voting behaviour in the 1997 election
* Lab beat Con in every age bracket
* 18-24: Con 27%, Lab 49% (22pc gap)
* 65+: Con 36%, Lab 41% (5pc gap)
54
# 2
Describe gender-related voting behaviour in the 1997 election
* Little divide
* Lab: men 45%, women 44%
55
# 5
Describe class-related voting behaviour in the 1997 election
* Greatest divide
* Lab won back C2 voters who had abandoned party since 1979
* Blair appealed to middle-class through ‘Third Way’
* AB: Con 41%, Lab 31%
* C1: Con 27%, Lab 50%
56
# 3
Describe ethnicity-related voting behaviour in the 1997 election
larger margin - though Lab still won in every demographic
White: Con 32%, Lab 43% (11% gap)
Black: Con 12%, Lab 82% (70% gap)
57
# 4
Describe region-related voting behaviour in the 1997 election
* Significant factor
* Northern England: Con 21%, Lab 66%
* SE England: Con 41%, Lab 32%
* Scotland: Con 18%, Lab 45%
58
# 3
Describe valence issues in the 1997 election
* Governing competency - ‘cash for questions’ and ‘arms to Iraq’ affair
* Economic competence - Lab promised to stick to Tory spending plans and not raise income tax
* Party unity - Major faced leadership challenge in 1995 and party divided over Europe
59
# 1
Describe salient issues in the 1997 election
* Public services took centre stage
60
# 3
Describe party policies and manifestos in the 1997 election
* Lab promised to invest in health and edu (e.g. treat 100k extra patients)
* Lab promised to be ‘tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’
* Conservatives allowed transfer of non-working tax-free allowance to partner for nuclear family (outdated)
61
# 2
Describe the impact of leadership in the 1997 election
* Blair seen as charismatic and had high personal approval rating
* Major seen as dull
62
# 3
Describe the Labour campaign in the 1997 election
* New Labour campaign
* Blair’s photo on front of manifesto - capitalised on personal popularity
* Red rose symbol emerged
63
# 2
Describe the Conservative campaign in the 1997 election
* Tory attempts to paint Blair as socialist in ‘New Labour, New Danger’ backfired
* Opinion polls narrowed towards end - but lengthy campaign had little impact on result
64
# 2
Describe the impact of the media in the 1997 election
* ‘The Sun backs Blair’ (1997) - Blair had close relationship with Murdoch
* spin doctors - Alaistar Campbell (former Mirror columnist), Peter Mandelson (tv producer) brought in
65
# 3
Describe the wider political context of the 2010 election
* Lab seeking 4th successive term
* GFC 2008 and economic problems (Lab attacked for spending during boom)
* Expenses Scandal 2009 (many involved did not re-run Lab MP Margaret Moran)
66
# 7
Describe the outcome of the 2010 election
* Hung Parliament
* First Peacetime Coalition since 1930s
* Seats: Con 306 (+96), Lab 258 (-91), LD 57 (-5)
* Votes: Con 36% (+4), Lab 29% (-6), LD 23% (+1)
* LD underperformed against expectations
* Lab received higher seat total than expected
* ⅙ voters participated in tactical voting
67
# 2
Describe the total turnout in the 2010 election
* Total - 65.1% (+3.7)
* Avg of time
68
# 2
Describe the gender-related turnout in the 2010 election
Male 66% vs Female 64%
69
# 2
Describe the age-related turnout in the 2010 election
* 18-24: 44% (+7)
* 65+: 76% (+1)
70
# 2
Describe the ethnicity-related turnout in the 2010 election
* White 67% (+5)
* Non-white 51% (+4)
71
# 4
Describe the region-related turnout in the 2010 election
* Eng 65.5% (+4.5)
* Scot 64% (+3)
* Wal 65% (+2)
* NI 58% (-5.5)
72
# 3
Describe the class-related voting behaviour in the 2010 election
* ABC1 voted Con over Lab by margin of over 10 points
* C2 voted Con over Lab by 8 points
* DE vote - Lab beat Con by 9 points
73
# 3
Describe the age-related voting behaviour in the 2010 election
* not overly significant factor
* Con did better than Lab in all but 18-24 age bracket (Con 30% vs Lab 31 vs LD 30%)
* Con polled at 44% in over-65 bracket
74
# 4
Describe the gender-related voting behaviour in the 2010 election
* No gender gap (apart from LD)
* Con: Male 38% vs Female 36%
* Lab: Male 28% vs Female 31%
* LD: Male 22% vs Female 26%
75
# 4
Describe the region-related voting behaviour in the 2010 election
* Scotland and Wales remained Lab stronghold
* England swung to Con
* London swung to Lab and LD (under Tory mayor)
* NI: SF largest vote and DUP most seats
76
# 3
Describe the ethnicity-related voting behaviour in the 2010 election
* Clear issue in election
* White: Con 38%, Lab 28%, LD 24%
* Non-white: Con 16%, Lab 60%, LD 20%
77
# 3
Describe valence issues in the 2010 election
* Lab’s economic competence severely undermined
* Con’s ‘modernisation project’ and ‘big society’ faltered due to doubts of governing competency
* Eric Pickles Con MP claimed second home on expenses despite only being 37 miles away
78
# 1
Describe the salient issues of the 2010 election
* GFC - economy most high-profile issue
79
# 2
Describe the Conservative Party policies and manifestos in the 2010 election
* spending cuts in all areas but health and foreign aid
* led party open to accussation it would cause ‘double-dip’ recession
80
# 2
Describe the Labour Party policies and manifestos in the 2010 election
* Protect investment in childcare, schools, NHS and policing
* Hold ref on AV and ref on making HoL fully elected by 2011
81
# 4
Describe the LD Party policies and manifestos in the 2010 election
* impose ‘mansion tax’ on properties over £2m
* ‘break up banks’
* scrap identity card scheme
* introduce codified constitution and STV for all UK elections
82
# 3
Describe the impact of leadership in the 2010 election
* Gordon Brown percieved as weak and dithering - personal popularity fell to historic lows
* ON Cameron initiated process of party modernisation
* Clegg ‘as popular as Churchill’
83
# 2
Describe the impact of the campaign in the 2010 elecion
* Cleggmania
* Bigotgate - Gillian Duffy - Lab supporter in Rochdale
84
# 3
Describe Cleggmania
* first televised election debate in UK - 10.3m viewers
* ‘I agree with Nick’ trending on Twitter
* Snap poll showed he was nearly as popular as Churchill
85
# 4
Describe the impact of the media in the 2010 election
* Papers (inc Economist + The Sun) broadly supportive of modernised Conservatives
* The Guardian backed LD
* Clegg and Cameron assured media performers - despite ‘Old Etonian’ label
* Brown distrusted for poor media performance
86
# 2
Give stats that show class dealignment
* AB Con - 78% (1964) vs 45% (2019)
* DE Lab - 64% (1964) vs 39% (2019)
87
# 3
Where are Conservative and Labour strongholds?
* Con - small town, rural, suburban (e.g. SE England)
* Lab - large metropolitan areas (esp in N/mid)
* Battlegrounds e.g. midlands
88
# 5
Describe the 1997 pledge card
* Cut class sizes to 30 or under for 5, 6 and 7-year-olds by using money from the assisted places scheme.
* Fast-track punishment for persistent young offenders by halving the time from arrest to sentencing.
* Cut NHS waiting lists by treating an extra 100,000 patients as a first step by releasing £100,000,000 saved from NHS red tape.
* Get 250,000 under-25s off benefits and into work by using money from a windfall levy on the privatised utilities.
* No rise in income tax rates, cut VAT on heating to 5% and inflation and interest rates as low as possible.
