4.1 factors that affect voting Flashcards
class-based voting and other factors influencing voting patterns, such as partisanship and voting attachment o gender, age, ethnicity and region as factors in influencing voting behaviour, turnout and trends.
1
Q
what are the 4 types of social class? write a sentence explaining each
A
- AB= mostly conservatives, higher and intermediate management, administrative, professional occupations e.g banker, CEO. they make up 22.17% of the pop
- C1= typically but not overwhelmingly conservative, supervisory, clerical and junior managers, administrative, professional occupations e.g teacher, office manager, social worker. make up 30.84% of pop
- C2= skilled manual occupations e.g plumber, hairdresser, train driver. make up 20.94% of pop
- DE= semi-skilled and unskilled manual occupations, unemployed and lowest-grade occupations e.g labourer, bar staff, call centre staff. make up 26.05% of pop
2
Q
before 1979 why was class so influential in voting?
A
- class identity= voting was a part of a person’s class identity, to be middle or upper class was to be conservative; to be working class meant you would support the party of the working class
- party links in communities= both major parties developed strong, deep roots within communities, so there was a culture of voting for one party or another. the wealthy commuter bell around London, for example, was steeped in conservative attitudes while the less affluent East of London had a strong sense of being a labour-led community. Such roots were strengthened by labour’s association with strong trade unions
- selfish reasons= there was a selfish reason. the conservative party was perceived to govern more in the interests of the middle class and the better off, while labour developed policies to help working class people and those on lower incomes. it was therefore to choose the party associated with your class
3
Q
prior to 1979, how many people voted the way their social class indicated?
A
80%
4
Q
examples of voting based on class declining
A
- some lower middle and working class voters aspired to be middle class and so switched to conservative
- class AB conservative vote has declined in favour of parties such as ‘new labour’ under Blair who attracted middle class support
- class DE have voted less for labour in recent years though have returned under Corbyn
-collapse of the red wall in 2019 saw labour votes going to conservatives
5
Q
why has voting on the basis of class declined?
A
- class dealignment has been important. this is the trend of fewer and fewer people who define themselves in terms of class
- the main parties, including the lib dems, have tended, especially after the 1980s, to adopt policies which are ‘centrist’, and appeal to a wider class base largely in the centre of society
- the rise of other factors have become important
6
Q
evidence that ‘region’ is influential in voting behaviour
A
- the south of England is solidly conservative
- labour dominates in London
- conservatives are almost dominant in the midlands
- labour leads in the North but this is not a decisive lead
- there is a sense that labour does have deep roots and strong local party organisations in the North and in south Wales, so it is inevitable that the party will pole well in these regions
- similarly, voting for the conservative party in the south is understandable since in rural suburban areas, the conservative party have long dominated the political culture
- however much of the regional variations can be traced to economic rather than regional influences as the south is generally richer than the north
- in 2017, in the North, 37% voted conservative, while 53% voted labour. in the south though, 54% voted conservative, while 28% voted labour
7
Q
evidence that ‘region’ is not influential in voting behaviour
A
- regional variations may in fact be class variations rather than geographical ones
- the election in 2019 saaw an interesting shift in regional voting as the conservatives gained seats from labour in its traditional North areas. this was mostly down to the issue of Brexit, leading Boris Johnson to declare that people in those regions had ‘lent him their votes’. This shows that single issues can often trump social factors in elections
8
Q
evidence that ‘party alignment’ is influential in voting behaviour
A
- traditionally, most voters in the UK would closely align with a particular political party based on their class and would remain loyal to that party, regardless of any other factor
- this was tightly bound up with social voting, but even when people moved from one class to another as a result of social mobility, they would remain loyal to the party of their family or background. that meant parties could rely on their core voters to support them
9
Q
evidence that ‘part alignment’ is not influential in voting behaviour
A
- with changes in the economic and class basis in the UK since the 1970s, we have seen a rise in partisan dealignment, which has meant that the core vote for their major parties has been shrinking. it also means voters are less likely to support the party we expect them to. so, increasing numbers of DE and AB voters are not voting for lab/cons, respectively, as we would have predicted
- this was seen most notably in the 2017 and 2019 elections, where high numbers of voters who in the past had voted for 1 party switched alliance over issues like Brexit. as such, it is difficult to argue that people cast their votes today primarily out of loyalty
10
Q
define core voters
A
voters who will invariably support one or other of the main parties. core voters, mostly, though not always, fall into patterns based on social class and region
11
Q
define partisan dealignment
A
the process where individuals no longer identify themselves on a long-term basis by being associated with a certain political party
12
Q
evidence that ‘gender’ is influential in voting behaviour
A
- over the years, parties have tailored strategies to target female voters, such as labours 2017 pledge to conduct gender-impact assessments on all policies and legislation. Labour’s 2015 woman to woman pink minibus which visited 75 constituencies to encourage more women to vote
- in the 1970s and early 80’s, women were more likely to vote conservative, with 47% of woman voting conservative in 1979 and 46% in 1983, compared with just 35% and 25% voting labour in those respective elections
- mostly it seems to relate to the change role of women in society and changes that have occurred within parties. in the 70’s and 80’s, the conservative party was seen as the party of ‘housewives’ which sought to keep prices low so mothers can run an effective household, winning Ted Heath the 1970 election. Labour in contrast was dominated by traditional unions and workers
- there are issues prioritised more by women than men, like health and education, while men care more about nuclear weapons and power, leading to different voting patterns
13
Q
evidence that ‘gender’ is not influential in voting behaviour
A
- it is not clear that there is an identifiable ‘women’s vote’, as women, like men, tend to vote based on issues rather than their gender. it is perhaps unsurprising then that the gender gap in voting is usually quite small, with men and women voting in similar percentages for political parties, with swings between parties over elections seeming to follow a similar trend
- in the 1979 election, 47% of women voted conservative and 43% of men voted conservative, but in 2019 46% of men voted conservative and 43% of women
- since the 1980’s, more women have entered the workplace and became more involved in more issues and areas than the role of ‘housewife’, we also saw women begin to make up higher percentages of the staff in some traditional labour voting occupations
- the collapse of Britain’s industrial base force the labour party of the 1990’s to consider a range of issues, many of which related to women
- gender differences n voting are also impacted by age as differences become less stark the older the age
- in 2019, 12% of men and women voted lib dem
14
Q
Evidence that ‘education’ influences voting behaviour
A
- untill the 1960’s, those with more academic qualifications were likely to be more middle class, and so, as class-based voting dominated, were more likely to vote conservative
- those in heavy industry and more working-class jobs did not need higher levels of education, and so, those with more qualifications voted conservative
- however, since the growth of university courses and access to courses for more people, as well as the social factors that saw an end to many of the old industrial jobs, the impact of education began to change
- there is no established explanation but evidence suggests that education does appear to have a ‘liberating’ effect with voters more likely to vote labour or Lib Dem the higher their level of qualification
- for example in 2017, 47% of people of people who held a degree were likely to vote labour or Lib Dem, while 36% would vote conservative and 4% UKIP
- of those with no formal qualifications, only 23% were prepared to vote labour or Lib Dem, while 53% conservative and 17% UKIP
-for those with GCSES, 31% would vote left, 62% vote right but those with A-levels, 39% voting left and 49% right
-explains why labour have gained support from AB
15
Q
Evidence that ‘education’ does not influence voting behaviour
A
- in the past there was relatively small % of people sitting A-levels or going to uni, which made it difficult to quantify the impact of education
- however, before we assume that education is the key factor, it is worth remembering that the Conservative Party was the single most popular party across all educational groups in 2019
16
Q
Evidence that ‘age’ is influential in voting behaviour?
A
- since 1997, age has become the main dividing line in British politics, replacing class as the dominant statistic
- in 2018, 21% of 18-34 year olds voted conservative, while 56% voted labour, compared to 65+, where 67% voted conservative and 14% voted labour
- the labour/conservative crossover occurs at age 39, for every 10 years older a person is, the likelihood they voted conservative increases by 9 points
- this is because it reflects the shifting economic position of Britain. In the 80s and 90s, Britain moved from an industrial economy to a service- based economy, meaning fewer jobs in traditional ‘closed-based’ sectors such as factories and mining and much more focus on white collar jobs where position, which comes with age, counts for more
- also, as property ownership has risen, more people are able to own their own home however this has made it harder for younger people to buy their home and to become less reliant on the state
- the rise in gig economy, with more flexible but less protected jobs, is focuses on young workers, meaning they are less interested in more traditional policies offered by conservatives
17
Q
Reasons why age is influential in voting behaviour
A
- younger people tend to be more progressive
- as people age and acquire more assets, they tend to focus more on rational, self interested issues
- younger people have fewer responsibilities so can indulge in more outward-lowering ideas
- voting by younger people for what may be described as more progressive parties is understandable
- younger people are less likely to vote than older people, in 2017 (despite the ‘youth quake’) the proportion of younger voters turnout was only 54%, 15% below the average turnout, so parties are more likely to target policies for older people e.g triple lock pension rather than Ed milibands 2015 losing policy to scrap uni fees
18
Q
Evidence that ‘ethnicity’ influences voting behaviour
A
- despite the race neutral theory, the history of the established parties has shaped BAME attitudes, with the Conservative Party having a history of rhetoric and supporters opposing immigration and equal rights while labour passed major anti-discrimination legislation when in power power in the power in the past
19
Q
Evidence that ‘ethnicity’ does not influences voting behaviour
A
- as with any social issue, there is no automatic reason why any political party should be favoured by people of any given ethnicity, as in an equal society, race should not play a major role in politics. this idea would relate to the stated beliefs of registered parties to support a socially tolerant and mixed society
- ‘british future’, a think tank that studies attitudes of immigration and ethnicity’s suggests that the ethnic bias among some groups against the conservatives may be waning
- increasing social mobility and the movement of more BAME voters into AB and C1 classes perhaps accounts for the recent increase in conservative support among BAME
20
Q
why does turnout vary? and examples
A
- turnout may fall because of how close the election appears to be. in 1974 with a 79% turnout resulted in a hung parliament and 1992 with a turnout of 77% resulted in a narrow conservative win, it was unclear who would win. the same is true for 2010 (turnout being 66%) and 2015 (turnout being 67%), which will not high turnouts were a significant recovery from a slump where the 2001 turnout was 59%
- the 2001 and 2005 (turnout being 63%) elections were foregone. labour was going to wing against a disunited conservative party so less people felt compelled to vote as they thought their vote wouldn’t matter
21
Q
how does age affect turnout?
A
- in 2010, 44% of 18-24 year olds voted, compared to 75% of 65+
- in 2015, 43% of 18-24 year olds voted, compared to 78% of 65+
- in 2017, 54% of 18-24 year olds voted, compared to 71% of 65+. however this ‘youthquauke’ is considered a blip rather than a change because it was a result of labour’s campaign to get more young people voting (and didn’t even end in their favour).
