4.1-voter behavior

Question 1

in the 1997 general election what was the swing in votes to labour from women vs from men? what are the possible reasons for this?

Answer 1

• 10 % for women
• 8% for men

reasons:
- increase in working women
- the advantage thatcher had with women reduced

Question 2

what percent of black and asian voters, voted for labour in 1997?

Answer 2

82% of black voters
66% of asian voters

Question 3

what % of 18-24 year olds voted labour in 1997 and how does this compare to 65+?

Answer 3

• 49% of 18-24
• 41% of 65+

Question 4

what % of the DE class voted labour in 1997 compared to the ABC1 class

Answer 4

• 48% of the DE class
• 18% of the ABC1

Question 5

what was the context behind the 1997 election

Answer 5

• black wednesday
• begining of new labour (revised clause 4)
• blair endoresed by the sun
• divides within the conservative party over membership of the european single currency
• labour placed a focus on electing female MPSs

Question 6

what was the context behind the 1979 general election?

Answer 6

• callaghan seen to be indifferent to the ‘winter of discontent’ (sun ran the ‘crisis? what crisis headline)
• margaret thatcher was presented as the ‘iron lady’
• SNP called a vote of no confidence against callaghan due to refusing to implement devolution

Question 7

what was the difference in conservative vote share in 18-34 year olds and in 55+in 1979?

Answer 7

• 42% of 18-24 year olds voter conservative
• 47% of 55+

Question 8

what percent of men compared to women voted labour in the 1979 general election

Answer 8

• 40% of men
• 35% of women

Question 9

what persent of DE voted conservative compared to ABC1 in 1979

Answer 9

• 34% of DE voters
• 59% of ABC1 voters

Question 10

what was the conservative campaign characterised by in 2019

Answer 10

• boris johnsons ‘get brexit done’
• pledges net 0 by 2050
• Limited increases in NHS spending

Question 11

what was the 2019 labour campaign shaped by?

Answer 11

• windfall tax on oil companies
• significant increases in spending to 45% of GDP
• corbyn was unpopular amoung red-wall seats
• labour stuggled to deal with issues of antisemitism
• 80% of spending went to seats labour hoped to win rather than could actually win

Question 12

what was singificant about the results of the 2019 election?

Answer 12

• lost 45 redwall seats
• lost 18 seats it had held since the post war period

Question 13

what was the lead conservatives had over leave voters in 2019 ?

Answer 13

15-73% lead

Question 14

what persent of 18-24 year olds voted conservative in 2019 compared to 65+

Answer 14

• 19% of 18-24 year olds
• 64% of people ages 65+

Question 15

amoung DE voters what persent voted conservative in 2019 compared to AB voters?

Answer 15

• 41% of DE voters
• 45% of AB voters

Question 16

what % of individuals with no qualifications voted conservative in 2019 compared to individuals with degrees/ higher education?

Answer 16

• 59% of people with no qualificatios voted conservative
• 34% of individuals with a degree/ higher EDU voted conservative

Question 17

why is the change in voter behavior in the 2019 general election significant?

Answer 17

• suggests class dealignment
• strong age group divide
• issues such as brexit resulted in changes in class behavior.

Question 18

in the brexit referendum what % of 18-24 year olds voted to leave and how does this compare to 65+?

Answer 18

• 29% of 18-24
• 64% of 65+

Question 19

why is there a link between class and voting?

Answer 19

• Conservatives traditionally favours low tax policies and reduced welfare
• labour is associated with redistribution and the implementation of the NHS

Question 20

What % of the electorate is estimated to vote in line with their social class?

Answer 20

40%

Question 21

What are the short-term factors that may influence voter behaviour?

Answer 21

• party leader
• single-issue voting (e.g. Scotland with independence or votes for the Brexit party)
• manifesto policies
• external factor e.g financial crash 2008

Question 22

how did DE vs AB voters vote in the 2016 EU referendum?

Answer 22

• 64% of DE voters voted to leave the EU
• 41% of AB voters voted to leave the EU

Question 23

how many men compared to women voted labour in 2019?

Answer 23

• 31% men
• 35% women

Question 24

what % of women aged 18-24 and men aged 18-24 voted labour in 2019?

Answer 24

• 46% of men aged 18-24
• 65% of women aged 18-24
• the gender gap between men and women is more significant when compounded with age
• the gap between genders decreases with age : older men and women increasingly vote the same

Question 25

what is the bandwagon effect in opinion polling?

Answer 25

• when voters vote for the party they think is going to win

Question 26

what is the underdog effect in opinion polling?

Answer 26

• when voters vote for a minority party lacking support because they feel bad for them

Question 27

give a stat that suggests changing party loyalty.

Answer 27

in the 1960s half of voters said they idntified with one political party
now only 10% say they identify with one political party

Question 28

what was a large policy failure in 2017?

Answer 28

• dementia tax: older people had to sell their homes to pay for social care
• got rid of the tripple lock on pensions- got rid of the 2.5% protection

targets core conservative party demographics

Question 29

how has party membership changed (overall)?

Answer 29

• in 1983, over 65% were party members
• in 2022 1.5% of the electorate were party members