Risk Flashcards
Probability that event A OR B will occur
= A + B
They are mutually exclusive
Probability that both events A and B will occur
= A x B
Not mutually exclusive
How does Bayes theorem work?
Establishes two mutually exclusive hypotheses and combines information already known about the probability of each hypothesis with new information to provide a revised probability
Describe the Bayes table
Prior probabilities of each hypothesis shown in 1st row of column
Conditional probability for each hypothesis shown in 2nd row (what is the prob that the conditional prob would occur if hypothesis were true)
Joint probability for each hypothesis shown in third row (prior probability x conditional)
Posterior probability (e.g. Residual carrier risk) = joint prob / sum of joint probabilities
What is the problem with estimating carrier risk of X linked disorder in families with 1 affected individual?
de novo mutations relatively common
Estimation of risk requires knowledge of mutation rate
What is risk estimation?
Provides individuals with information regarding the probability that they or members of their family will develop disease in the future or are carriers of a genetic disease
