Climate Change Flashcards
What are the two main types of models that predict sea level change?
Physical models
Empirical models
What are physical models?
These attempt to describe the physical processes relating to sea level rise.
What are physical models based on?
They are based on physical laws.
What are the disadvantages of the physical models?
Incomplete
Complex
Hard to interpret
What are empirical molecules?
These attempt to relate to the previous changes in the Earth’s climate to changes in global mean sea level to make a projection of how sea level will change.
What are empirical models based on?
They are based on recent trends and predictions of future climates.
What are semi-empirical models?
These capture observed behaviour during periods of past sea level rise so that they appear to reproduce past changes.
What is a disadvantage of semi-empirical models?
There is no guarantee that these past changes are indicative of the future.
Why is there so much uncertainty?
This is due to variations in future greenhouse gas emissions because the rates can change.
There is uncertainty with physical models
There is a possible rapid change in the net rate of discharge from ice sheets.
“Tipping point” events.
Why is there uncertainty with physical models?
This is because there are different emission scenarios.
Why is there a range in climate change models?
Use of different statistics
Use of different models
Some models may be more pessimistic than others because we need to prepare for the worst case scenario.
What does low probability, high risk mean?
This means that a large event that carries a lot of risk is highly unlikely. However, if the event did occur it would be disastrous.
What does the UK have to adapt to sea level change?
SMPs
Uses pessimistic predictions to provide upper limits for protection.
Sea defences
