Offender Risk Assessment

Question 1

What is the risk principle?

Answer 1

Concerned with the dosage of programming.

Question 2

What is the need principle?

Answer 2

Determines the treatment targets interventions should intervene upon. Proposes that to reduce recidivism, interventions should target only those needs (or risk factors) that contribute to offending behaviour (criminogenic needs)

Question 3

What is the responsivity principle?

Answer 3

Concerned with how the intervention is delivered. States that the more effective programmes are those which successfully match the style and methods of delivery to the learning styles of the offender.

Question 4

Is risk assessment of offenders different to normal risk assessment?

Answer 4

No. Risk assessment with offender management operates the same way as it would within other fields, i.e insurance.

Question 5

What is a risk assessment?

Answer 5

Information about offenders and their circumstances is collated in order to reach a judgement about their likely future behaviour. May be how likely an offender is to reoffend or cause harm to others.

Question 6

What is a clinical risk assessment?

Answer 6

Clinical assessment involves observation and collecting information regarding the offender. The clinician utilises the information, alongside their experience and training in order to formulate the risk prediction.

Question 7

What is actuarial risk assessment?

Answer 7

Typically use algorithms or equations to generate risk scores from specific items of informations.

There is a long standing debate about which method is favourable. It is now generally accepted, after Grove & Meehl (1996) did a meta-analysis that actuarial is preferred.

Question 8

What are risk assessments used for?

Answer 8

Often administered prior to sentencing. E.g. risk to others, risk of reoffending.

May be used for sentence plans, parole decisions, risk management plans within the community.

Question 9

What is “OGRS”?

Answer 9

The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (Copas & Marshall, 1998)

Purely actuarial risk of reconviction instrument, calculates from a small number of criminal history and demographic items, the probability that an offender will be reconvicted within 2 years. Produces a score between 0 and 100.

Strength - it is practical as it is quick and easy.

Weakness - it has been criticised for only taking into account static and historical criminal history, not dynamic social and behavioural factors.

Question 10

What is the LSI-R?

Answer 10

Level of Service Inventory-Revised (Andrews & Bonta, 1995)

54 item risk and need assessment tool. Provides an assessment of the risk of reoffending and the needs of the offender. Comprises of both static and dynamic factors.

Hollin and Palmer (2003) describe is as “effective and efficient”

3rd Generation

Question 11

What is the OASys?

Answer 11

The Offender Assessment System.

Ambitious development.

Risk and needs assessment tool.

Used across prison and probation.

Can be done manually but is often used electronically, through file review and offender interviews utilising static and dynamic risk factors. A structured clinical assessment tool.

Criticism - takes time to complete (2.5 hours compared to LSI-R which can take 10 minutes)

Strength - richness of data
- offenders can complete self assessment

Question 12

What is the HCR-20?

Answer 12

Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20 (Webster et al., 1997)

Risk assessment that incorporates clinical judgement to assess future violent behaviour.
20 items: 10 historical, 5 clinical, 5 risk management factors.

Example of a structured clinical judgement

Question 13

What is the SARN?

Answer 13

Structured Assessment of Risks and Need (Thornton, 2000)

Initially measures static risk through the use of an actuarial risk tool.

1. Provides initial risk assessment through evaluation of the number of sex offence sentences, number of criminal offences, offender’s age on release.
2. Considers presence of aggravating factors and adjusts the initial assessed risk level if needed.

Question 14

What are the main three group interventions used in prisons across England and Wales?

Answer 14

R&R

Think First

Enhanced Thinking Skills

Question 15

Discuss the R&R programme.

Answer 15

The reasoning and rehabilitation programme has been implemented in 17 different countries.

38, two-hour sessions.

Promotes the acquisition and rehearsal of new skills: interpersonal cognitive problem-solving skills, social skills, self-control, emotional management, creative thinking, critical reasoning, values enhancement.

Tutoring and interactive learning.

Role plays, guided discussions, group exercises, small group work.

Higher risk offenders.

Question 16

Discuss the Enhanced Thinking Skills programme.

Answer 16

Designed to compliment the R&R and be suitable for low risk offenders.

Focuses on provision of interpersonal problem solving, social, moral reasoning skills through interactive programme delivery. Promotes pro-social modelling.

Question 17

Discuss the Think First programme.

Answer 17

(McGuire, 2000)

Different because although it focuses on interpersonal problem solving, social, moral skills, cognitive skills etc. It focuses on the offence.

Allows the offender to focus on own offending behaviour and modify behaviour.

Break down their offences and analyse in detail what happened, who was involved, when, where, why.

Create avoidance strategies.

Community based (22 x 2 hour group sessions) and Prison based (30 x 2 hour group sessions)

Question 18

Are the three programmes effective?

Answer 18

A national evaluation of all three programmes (within community) concluded that all three produced significant reductions in reconviction amongst programme-completer groups compared to control.

Question 19

What is a disorganised offender?

Answer 19

Characterised as committing a:

sudden unforeseen attack
without needs for restraints
minimal attempt to hide the victim

Question 20

What is an organised offender?

Answer 20

Shows evidence of:

having planned the crime
selecting stranger victim
control over the victim and events

Question 21

Can sadists/psychopaths be cured?

Answer 21

No convincing evidence that their personalities can be treated and eradicated. Can be ‘cured’ but seems to reappear when released.

Question 22

Should low risk offenders receive the same interventions as high risk?

Answer 22

For low risk offenders, it can actually be beneficial to give less treatment or even none!

Bonta et al (2000)
- low risk offenders receiving intensive treatment - 32% reoffend

• low risk offenders receiving intensive treatment - 15% reoffend

Question 23

Name some possible risk factors to include in a risk assessment?

Answer 23

age
gender
poor housing / neighbourhood
victimised as child
offence history
employment
substance abuse
anti-social attitudes
deviant peers
mental illness
self esteem
empathy

Question 24

What are the advantages and disadvantages of unstructured clinical judgement?

Answer 24

Advantage

• flexible
• individual focussed
• useful for prevention

Disadvantage

• poor consistency between evaluators
• variable accuracy
• potential reliance on irrelevant risk factors

Question 25

What are the advantages and disadvantages of structured clinical judgement?

Answer 25

Advantage

• identifies core risk factors to consider
• flexible
• emphasis on prevention

Disadvantage

• room for clinical biases
• not consistent
• cost of training

Question 26

What are the advantages and disadvantages of actuarial risk assessment?

(2nd Generation)

Answer 26

Advantage

• emphasis on empirical support
• easy to use - fixed rules
• optimised for purpose
• basis for case comparison

Disadvantage

• focused on small number of predictors
• inflexible
• emphasis only on prediction
• optimised to specific population and assessment context

Question 27

What are the advantages and disadvantages of actuarial risk-needs assessment?

(3rd Generation)

Answer 27

Example… OGRS3 (Howard et al., 2009)

• measure for UK adult and youth justice system
• accuracy of 80% on one year reoffending

Advantages

• same for 2G
• adds criminogenic social and psychological risk factors
• brings emphasis on prevention and change

Disadvantages

• limited number of predictors used
• some dynamic risk factors are only ‘potential’ causal factors
• professional over-ride only allowed in limited circus
• group-based decisions
• optimised to specific population and assessment

Question 28

Why is clinical judgement so poor?

Answer 28

• confirmation bias/halo and horns (looking to confirm your personal impression)
• representativeness (over emphasis on certain information due to similarity to other cases - stereotyping)
• avaliability
• adjustment
• framing effects

Question 29

Give some examples of pathfinder programmes.

Answer 29

Think first (McGuire, 2000)
R&R (Porporino & Fabiano, 2000)
ETS (Clark, 2000)