7 - Fertility, Population and Development Flashcards
(31 cards)
2050 population
9.6b
2010 population
6.892b
Structure of world’s population
- Geographic region
- Fertility and mortality trends
- Rate of population increase
- Birth rates, death rates
- Total fertility rates
- Age structure and dependency burdens
2050 population growth coming from
Africa
15% –> 22%
Rate of population increase
The growth rate of a population, calculated as the natural increase after adjusting for immigration and emigration
Natural increase
Difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a given population
Net international migration
The excess of persons migrating into a country over those who emigrate from that country
Crude birth rate
The number of children born alive each year per 1,000 population
Crude death rate
Number of deaths per year per 1000 people
- Fallen significantly in recent years
Total fertility rate (TFR)
Number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates
Life expectancy at birth
Number of years a newborn child would live if subjected to the mortality risks prevailing for the population at the time of the child’s birth
- about 12 years greater in developed countries
- gap fallen significantly in recent years
Under 5 mortality rate
Deaths among children between birth and 5 years of age per 1,000 live births
- significant progress made
Youth dependency ratio
The proportion of young people under age 15 to the working population aged 16 to 64 in a country
Momentum of population growth
Phenomenon whereby population continues to increase even after a fall in birth rates because the large existing youthful population expands the population’s base of potential parents
Two reasons for momentum of population growth
1) high birth rates cannot be altered overnight
2) age structure of developing countries’ population
Demographic transitions:
Process - fertility rates decline to low and stable levels
Pre-industrial society –> modernization –> falling fertility rates
Pre-industrial society: “high growth potential stage”
stable/slow growing populations since high birth rates but also high deaths rates
Modernisation ‘transitional growth stage’
better public health, diets, incomes, incomes
reductions in mortality and rising life expectancies. Fall in death rates NOT immediately accompanied by falling fertility rates. Leads to rapid population growth
Falling fertility rates “incipient decline stage”
falling birth rates, falling death rates leading to little or no population growth
Birth rates in developing world considerably higher
- women tend to marry earlier
- more families for given population size
- more years in which to have children
1950s/60s death rates fell much more quickly since:
imported effective modern medicine
Malthusian population trap
the idea that rising population and diminishing returns to fixed factors (land) result in low levels of living (population trap)
- as population increases each person has less land to work with
- marginal contribution to food production falls
Malthus critique:
- Ignores the role and impact of technological progress
- no empirical evidence to support relationship between population growth and levels per capita income
- per capita income is not the principal determinant of population
Household theory of fertility
- fertility as a rational response: maximize utility
- first 2 or 3 children “consumer goods”
- additional children “investment goods”
