7 - Fertility, Population and Development Flashcards Preview

Development Economics > 7 - Fertility, Population and Development > Flashcards

Flashcards in 7 - Fertility, Population and Development Deck (31):

2050 population



2010 population



Structure of world's population

- Geographic region
- Fertility and mortality trends
- Rate of population increase
- Birth rates, death rates
- Total fertility rates
- Age structure and dependency burdens


2050 population growth coming from


15% --> 22%


Rate of population increase

The growth rate of a population, calculated as the natural increase after adjusting for immigration and emigration


Natural increase

Difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a given population


Net international migration

The excess of persons migrating into a country over those who emigrate from that country


Crude birth rate

The number of children born alive each year per 1,000 population


Crude death rate

Number of deaths per year per 1000 people
- Fallen significantly in recent years


Total fertility rate (TFR)

Number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates


Life expectancy at birth

Number of years a newborn child would live if subjected to the mortality risks prevailing for the population at the time of the child's birth
- about 12 years greater in developed countries
- gap fallen significantly in recent years


Under 5 mortality rate

Deaths among children between birth and 5 years of age per 1,000 live births
- significant progress made


Youth dependency ratio

The proportion of young people under age 15 to the working population aged 16 to 64 in a country


Momentum of population growth

Phenomenon whereby population continues to increase even after a fall in birth rates because the large existing youthful population expands the population's base of potential parents


Two reasons for momentum of population growth

1) high birth rates cannot be altered overnight

2) age structure of developing countries' population


Demographic transitions:

Process - fertility rates decline to low and stable levels

Pre-industrial society --> modernization --> falling fertility rates


Pre-industrial society: "high growth potential stage"

stable/slow growing populations since high birth rates but also high deaths rates


Modernisation 'transitional growth stage'

better public health, diets, incomes, incomes

reductions in mortality and rising life expectancies. Fall in death rates NOT immediately accompanied by falling fertility rates. Leads to rapid population growth


Falling fertility rates "incipient decline stage"

falling birth rates, falling death rates leading to little or no population growth


Birth rates in developing world considerably higher

- women tend to marry earlier
- more families for given population size
- more years in which to have children


1950s/60s death rates fell much more quickly since:

imported effective modern medicine


Malthusian population trap

the idea that rising population and diminishing returns to fixed factors (land) result in low levels of living (population trap)

- as population increases each person has less land to work with
- marginal contribution to food production falls


Malthus critique:

- Ignores the role and impact of technological progress

- no empirical evidence to support relationship between population growth and levels per capita income

- per capita income is not the principal determinant of population


Household theory of fertility

- fertility as a rational response: maximize utility
- first 2 or 3 children "consumer goods"
- additional children "investment goods"


Fertility may be lowered with:

- improved women's education
- female nonagricultural wage employment
- rise in family income levels
- reduction in infant mortality, better health care
- lowered prices and better information on contraceptives
- subsidy benefits


Real problem not population growth but rather:

- underdevelopment
- world resource depletion and environmental destruction
- population distribution
- subordination of women


Population growth real problem:

- poverty
- adverse impact on education
- adverse impact on health
- food constraints



- population is not the primary cause of lower living levels
- rapid population increase likely to exacerbate various issues


Policy approaches

- attend to underlying socioeconomic conditions that impact development
- family planning programs should provide education and technological means to regulate fertility
- Address gender bias, causes of boy preference


What developing countries can do:

- Persuasion through education
- Family planning programs
- Address incentives for having children
- Raise socioeconomic status of women
- Increase employment opportunities for women


What developed countries can do:

- Adress resource use inequities
- More open migration policies