Superpowers (DONE)

Question 1

What is a superpower?

Answer 1

• A superpower is a nation, or group of nations, with a leading position in international politics.

Question 2

What is the history of the UK as a superpower?

Answer 2

• From the mid-19th century to the early 20th century the UK was arguably the world’s superpower, having successfully created a global empire with strong trading links, which it then defended against challenges by other European countries.

Question 3

How did the UK manage to lose their superpower status to the USA?

Answer 3

• Following the intervention of the USA in two world wars, the UK was in massive debt to the USA which started to emerge as a superpower, challenged by Russia during the Cold War.
• After colonising many countries the UK could not afford to continue to populate these countries and the ethical stance also meant that the UK gave up control of a lot of land.

Question 4

How did regional powers arise within continents a cross the world?

Answer 4

• The USA established sole authority during the Cold War, but the long-term legacy of change, especially through the globalisation of freedom and democracy, meant that within each continent a number of countries can now claim to have significant influence.
• These regional powers include countries such as Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Chile, Australia, India and, within Europe, Germany and the UK.

Question 5

Why do some people see China as a threat to the USA superpower status?

Answer 5

• As a resurgent China benefits from its own unique twist on capitalism, some see its wealth and influence as a future challenge to the USA’s status as the primary global economic superpower.

Question 6

How does USA’s GDP compare to China’s?

Answer 6

• The USA’s per capita GDP was US$53,000 compared to China’s US$6,000 (note that there are different ways to measure GDP, some of which suggest the gap is much smaller).

Question 7

What % of financial transactions occur in US dollars?

Answer 7

• 80 per cent of all financial transactions and 87 per cent of foreign currency market transactions are in US dollars

Question 8

How does the military spending of China and USA compare?

Answer 8

• The USA’s military spending is four to five times that of China, accounting for 37 per cent of global military spending

Question 9

How many settled migrants do the USA have?

Answer 9

• The USA is the most favoured destination for migration - 45 million people living the USA were born in a foreign country, four times that of the next-highest country

Question 10

How much money does USA give as financial assistance?

Answer 10

• The USA hands out the most money in the world in financial assistance (US$33 billion), with the UK being second (US$19 billion)

Question 11

How many of the top universities are in the USA?

Answer 11

• 16 of the top 20 universities in the world are in the USA.

Question 12

What are economic characteristics of superpowers?

Answer 12

Economic:

• High GDP and high levels of trade, including influence over global trade
• Home to many TNCs
• Hard currency held in reserve by other countries.

Question 13

What are political characteristics of superpowers?

Answer 13

Political:

• Permanent seat on the UN Security Council, together with powerful allies.
• Many multilateral agreements

Question 14

What are military characteristics of superpowers?

Answer 14

Military:
- High expenditure, largest amount of hardware and personnel, including
nuclear weapons.
- Could command global military control.
- Unparalleled intelligence networks.
- Exporters of technology.

Question 15

What are cultural characteristics of superpowers?

Answer 15

Cultural:
- Long-standing tradition and rich cultural history or way of life voluntarily enjoyed by many around the world, for example music and fashion.

Question 16

What are demographic characteristics of superpowers?

Answer 16

Demographic:

• Significant percentage of global population
• Attracts skilled migrants and other workers.

Question 17

What are resource characteristics of superpowers?

Answer 17

Access to resources:

• Able to export and control the supply of valuable commodities, for example oil, or able to secure the resources it needs.
• On the other hand, multiple resources make a country less dependent on others (e.g. energy security)
• Occupying a world location that enables it to command influence

Question 18

How did Mussolini maintain power in Italy in the 1930s?

Answer 18

• Writing about soft power, Antonio Gramsci (an Italian Marxist and geopolitical theorist) was inspired by how Mussolini had maintained power in Italy in the 1930s.
• The Italian people’s willingness to accept the government’s values kept Mussolini in power without the use of force.
• Gramsci described this as a form of ‘cultural hegemony’, or what Professor Joseph Nye of Harvard University has described as non-coercive, soft power that attracts and co-opts the views and agreement of other countries.

Question 19

Why does the UK still have considerable global influence without being a global superpower?

Answer 19

• Successful use of soft power explains why the UK, while no longer a global superpower, continues to exert considerable influence around the world.

Question 20

What are the 3 main features of soft power?

Answer 20

• History
• Culture
• diplomacy

Question 21

How does the UK use their history of education as a form of soft power?

Answer 21

• families from all over the world send their children to study at British universities, particularly those in London, Oxford and Cambridge.

Question 22

How does the UK use their history of the British empire as soft power?

Answer 22

• The cultural and other relationships established through the British Empire live on through the Commonwealth.

Question 23

How does the UK use their history of creating the common-law legal approach as soft power?

Answer 23

• The British common-law legal approach (case law), where judges decide cases on the basis of previous judicial outcomes, and other aspects of our legal system, are widely modelled around the world, while its neutrality, transparency and continued development (which are attractive to companies) have facilitated the powerful growth of international finance in the City of London.

Question 24

How does the UK use its culture in media and language as soft power?

Answer 24

• the BBC is a major international broadcaster and besides a rich literary, artistic and musical legacy, English is the most widely spoken language after Mandarin.

Question 25

How does the UK use its culture in hosting international events as soft power?

Answer 25

• The 2012 Olympics reasserted Britain’s capability to host major international events and the opening ceremony showcased the country’s many contributions to the world, not least the invention of the internet.

Question 26

How does the UK use its culture with international consultancy firms as soft power?

Answer 26

• The UK exports knowledge management in the form of international consultancy firms such as PriceWaterhouse Coopers.

Question 27

How does the UK use diplomacy as soft power?

Answer 27

• the UK has one of the largest networks of embassies and high commissions.
• British diplomats are widely respected and Britain has been hugely influential in imposing economic sanctions, for example on Russia after its involvement in Ukraine.

Question 28

How have the UK helped maintain balances of power across Europe using diplomacy as soft power?

Answer 28

• Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State, suggested that throughout European history Britain has always sought to support weaker countries against takeover by stronger ones, thereby maintaining crucial balances of power across the continent.

Question 29

What failure by the USA has called into question the effectiveness of soft power?

Answer 29

• The failure of the USA to react to human rights abuses in countries such as Syria, in 2013-16, has called into question the effectiveness of soft power.

Question 30

Why do some historians feel hard power is vital rather than soft power?

Answer 30

• The historian Niall Ferguson asserts that superpowers should stand astride the world like a ‘Colossus’, recognising that hard power, in the form of military force and economic change, is vital.

Question 31

What does the statue of liberty in the US symbolise about hard power?

Answer 31

• the Statue of Liberty, a deliberate reformulation of the Ancient Colossus of Rhodes, emphasises the ‘freedom’ that is possible in the USA because of its hard power around the world.

Question 32

What are the 2 main aspects of hard power?

Answer 32

• Military power

- Economic power

Question 33

How did the USA use military power with the Taliban?

Answer 33

• the USA exercised hard power by confronting the Taliban and bringing about the death of Osama bin Laden.

Question 34

How was military power used in helping Kuwait during the 1991 gulf war?

Answer 34

• The USA responded to Kuwait’s request for military help in the 1991 Gulf War, following that country’s invasion by Iraq, and subsequently removed Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq in 2003.

Question 35

How did the Afghanistan war arise and what was it an example of?

Answer 35

• The Afghanistan War was prompted by the 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre by Al-Qaeda, an extremist organisation.
• The USA imposed its military power against terrorism.

Question 36

How is the USA economic power greater than China’s?

Answer 36

• although USA and Chinese GDP totals are similar, 2015 per capita income in the USA was four times that of China.

Question 37

How does the USA exert its economic power through trade?

Answer 37

• The USA remains the largest trading partner for many countries, exporting high-value goods (for example military aircraft) and global brands (for example, Apple).

Question 38

How does the USA exert its economic power through innovation?

Answer 38

• The USA has dominance in innovation and intellectual property, such as patents.

Question 39

What IGO’s are vital for spreading western economic power?

Answer 39

• The World Bank, the IMF and the World Trade Organization (WTO) are all vital economic tools for spreading Western influence.

Question 40

What did romans and other ancient civilisations believe their success depended on?

Answer 40

• the Romans and other ancient civilisations believed that their success depended on a strategic understanding of physical geography.

Question 41

During the period of European empire building what was a cause for conflict and exploration?

Answer 41

• During the period of European empire-building, ‘completing the world’s blank maps’ was an incentive for exploration and sometimes conflict.
• Many countries felt their success depended on their understanding of physical geography.

Question 42

What did Halford Mackinder believe was needed to exert influence?

Answer 42

• In Britain, Halford Mackinder (1861-1947), the first Reader of Geography at Oxford University, believed that, to exert influence, it was crucial for a country to contra strategic areas of land.

Question 43

After the first world war what did Nazi Germany believe was the best way to exert power?

Answer 43

• After the First World War, Nazi Germany believed that occupying other countries
  was a logical and vital way to ensure Lebensraum, or ‘living space’.
• This association of geopolitics with physical geography (a form of environmental determinism) in Nazi Germany and the colonial powers meant that the term ‘geopolitics’ was avoided for many decades.

Question 44

What policy did the USA adopt after the second world war and why?

Answer 44

• After the Second World War, the USA adopted a policy of containment, to ensure that Russian ideology (communism) would not spread by force or influence countries recovering from the war.

Question 45

How did the Cold War start between USA and Russia?

Answer 45

• Both Russia and the USA poured money into countries on the boundaries between ‘West’ and ‘East’ - such as Germany, Afghanistan, the Caribbean region, Korea and Malaysia.
• This increased aid and support from the USA aimed to encourage countries to resist communism.
• The indirect battles and conflicts that resulted are described as the Cold War.

Question 46

How did Klaus Dodds say geopolitics is maintained?

Answer 46

• Klaus Dodds (Professor of Geopolitics at Royal Holloway, University of London) says that ‘geopolitics is as much about high profile and dramatic (for example the Obama administration’s policy to pursue high-profile terrorist targets in Pakistan and Yemen) as it is about the everyday, the banal, and mundane (for example children reciting the pledge of allegiance in classrooms all over the United States)’.

Question 47

How have the UK government maintained power/contol over conflicts arising with groups with nationalistic views on migration?

Answer 47

• The UK Government, faced with a possible conflict between nationalistic reactions to migration and the rise of extremist ideology, has introduced counter terrorism strategies such as ‘Prevent’ to ensure that interactions online or face to face are shaped by ‘British values’ (such as freedom of expression and democracy).

Question 48

How do films and media in the UK challenge relevance of military capabilities?

Answer 48

• At the same time, films and other media (for example the two James Bond films Skyfall and spectre) challenge the relevance of military capability intelligence networks in the face of global media and the internet.

Question 49

How much power did the peak British empire have over the world?

Answer 49

• At its height, the British Empire extended over about a quarter of the world’s land area and ruled a fifth of its population.

Question 50

What were the British empires early colonial actions?

Answer 50

• The British empire’s origins can be traced back to the late 1400s, when England was competing with Spain and Portugal to explore the world, Christopher Columbus discovered America, and Sir Francis Drake defended claims to West Africa.
• Early colonial actions included settlements in Ireland by English and Scottish Protestants and the establishment of settlements in the Caribbean and North America, along with the slave trade between west and central Africa and the Americas.

Question 51

Who did the British empire go to war with?

Answer 51

• Rivalry with other European powers led to the Anglo-Dutch Wars in the 1600s, and a long history of war with Spain and then later France.

Question 52

How did the Britain finance voyages for valuable commodities?

Answer 52

• Like other European countries, Britain established trading companies to finance voyages to search for valuable commodities, such as spices from the East Indies and India.
• These raw materials were brought back to British cities such as Liverpool, Bristol, Hull and London, driving the Industrial Revolution.

Question 53

How did Britain manage to occupy Egypt?

Answer 53

• In 1875 Britain bought the largest shareholding in the Suez Canal and subsequently occupied Egypt.

Question 54

What countries did the British Empire eventually occupy during most of the 1800s?

Answer 54

• The Empire grew to include New Zealand, Australia, India and Ceylon (now Sri Lanka), as well as large expanses of west, east and southern Africa.
• For much of the 1800s Britain was unchallenged by any other superpower.

Question 55

What technologies were created to maintain the British empire?

Answer 55

• The British Empire worked by direct colonial control.

- The steamship and telegraph were new technologies developed to help maintain the empire.

Question 56

What was the ‘All Red line’ technology created by the British empire?

Answer 56

• The so-called ‘All Red Line’, an early precursor of the internet, consisted of a network of underwater telegraph cables, for example under the Atlantic Ocean from the UK to North America.

Question 57

What British cultural values were introduced around the world with the British Empire?

Answer 57

• British cultural values and the legal system, together with the English language, sports such as cricket, football and rugby, as well as British inventions such as railways, were introduced around the world, facilitating the growth of more complex trade networks and links.

Question 58

What was the British empires role during the imperial era?

Answer 58

• Britain’s policy of ‘splendid isolation’ during the imperial era meant that, although it had almost total global control, it played little part in European politics except for maintaining the balance of power and participating in the ‘Scramble for Africa’ in the late nineteenth century - which divided land arbitrarily along lines of latitude and major physical geographical features.

Question 59

What role did the British army play in the Opium wars?

Answer 59

• The British army helped defeat China in the Opium Wars to ensure that Britain would enjoy favourable trade arrangements with China.

Question 60

How did the British empire show force during the Indian rebellion?

Answer 60

• Occasional rebellions were put down by force, followed by more direct rule; for example the Indian rebellion of 1857 concluded with Queen Victoria being crowned Empress of India.

Question 61

When did the British empire start to come into question by others?

Answer 61

• By 1914 Britain’s Empire was becoming overstretched and was facing competition from a rapidly industrialising Germany.
• Although by the end of the First World War Britain had gained control over additional territories, including parts of. the Middle East (Palestine, Jordan and Iraq), the idea of empire was now being questioned.

Question 62

Why was the British empire starting to be questioned in 1914 by Ireland?

Answer 62

• Increasing agitation in Ireland for home rule since the close of the 19th century had led to a guerrilla war against British rule and the eventual creation of the Irish Free State in 1922 and the separation of Northern Ireland, which remained part ofthe United Kingdom.

Question 63

Why was the British empire starting to be questioned in 1914 by India?

Answer 63

• Discontent in India over the killing of hundreds of Punjabis at the Amritsar Massacre (or Jallianwala Bagh Massacre) in 1919 led many in Britain to question the morality of colonialism.
• People in other countries also showed dissatisfaction and declared independence, including Egypt, Australia and South Africa.

Question 64

How did naval power grow during the first world war?

Answer 64

• The First World War saw the growth of US and Japanese naval power, challenging Britain’s control of the seas and forcing the country to make choices regarding its international priorities.
• These were the first signs of the world becoming multipolar.

Question 65

What happened after Britain emerged from the second world war?

Answer 65

• By the time Britain emerged from the Second World War, near-bankrupt and dependent on US support, the country was facing rising anti-colonialism around the world.

Question 66

How did dismantling of European empires after the second world war impact other countries?

Answer 66

• One consequence of the dismantling of European empires was that the colonial boundaries - which often did not consider cultural frictions - became the borders of new countries.
• For example, Palestine was split into (Jewish) Israel and (Arab) Palestine, while (Hindu) India was separated from (Muslim) Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Question 67

Since the end of the second world war how have countries exercised power through the military?

Answer 67

• independence was not an easy process for some countries, and in some instances was accompanied by civil unrest and war, for example the Mau Mau uprising in Kenya, a communist insurrection in Malaya, the IRA terrorist campaign in Northern Ireland and a fierce guerrilla war in Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) during the 1960s and 1970s following the unilateral declaration of independence by the minority white regime there.

Question 68

Since the end of the second world war how has Britain exercised power through the military?

Answer 68

• Britain continued to use military force to exercise influence in many countries.
• Britain, sometimes together with the USA, intervened militarily in many countries, including the Falkland Islands, Sierra Leone, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

Question 69

Since the end of the second world war how have the USA exercised power politically?

Answer 69

• during the Cold War, the USA attempted to prevent the spread of communism beyond China and Russia.
• Its policy of ‘containment’ was an attempt to persuade countries that might be influenced by communism to choose a capitalist free-market approach to economics and government.
• Between 1948 and 1951 the US Marshall Plan provided aid to the UK (US$3,297 million), to France (US$2,296 million) and to Germany (US$1,448 million) for rebuilding as well as stimulating trade to help US industries.

Question 70

Since the end of the second world war how have the UK exercised power politically?

Answer 70

• The UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office continues to provide development support to countries such as those in the Caribbean region through Official Development Assistance (ODA).
• As well as mutual cooperation, this gives the UK moral authority as it seeks to support racial equality and independent sovereignty for those countries.

Question 71

Since the end of the second world war how have IGOs exercised power economically?

Answer 71

• the IMF and World Bank were set up to provide aid to developing countries
  in the form of ‘structural adjustment programmes’ to ensure that governments reformed their countries into pro-Western democracies.
• Other forms of aid are often given with ‘strings attached’, forcing recipients to spend money in the ways donor organisations want them to.

Question 72

Since the end of the second world war how have countries exercised power culturally?

Answer 72

• Western culture has continued to spread around the world through globalisation processes such as the internet.
• British sports such as cricket, tennis, rugby and football have remained key aspects of culture in many former colonies.
• Western music, books and architecture can be found around the world, with many TNCs operating globally.
• Increasingly, however, TNCs are emerging from countries such as Brazil, India, China and the Gulf States, and they are able to compete on a world scale, threatening the domination of US, European and Japanese TNCs.

Question 73

How is China spreading its influence across Africa today?

Answer 73

• China’s investment and trade with countries in Africa have grown rapidly.
• Today 1 million Chinese are estimated to be living in Africa, many in areas with large amounts of raw materials.
• In 2010 80 per cent of Chinese imports were mineral products from Africa, and China is now Africa’s top business partner.
• Chinese companies create jobs, upskill locals and spend money in the economy, stimulating further growth.
• China’s influence is also spreading to less resource-rich countries such as Ethiopia.
• China would like to develop either Hargeisa in Somaliland or Djibouti as a major gateway to East Africa and the Red and Mediterranean Seas (via the Suez Canal).
• The relationship between African and Chinese leaders is strong: for example, China played a major peacemaker role in negotiations between North and South Sudan.
• However, unlike direct colonial rule, Chinese companies operate within rules of the countries; and corrupt Chinese workers have been expelled from Malawi and Tanzania.

Question 74

How has the global pattern of power changed over time?

Answer 74

• The global pattern of power has changed from a unipolar (British Empire) to a bipolar world (USA competing with Russia), followed by a return to a unipolar world (just the USA).
• Evidence in the 21st century suggests that a multipolar world is developing, but as countries compete on a world scale for power and influence there is much instabilit and uncertainty.

Question 75

What has caused increased jobs and income in emerging countries?

Answer 75

• A global shift and outsourcing of manufacturing has increased jobs, income and consumer spending in emerging and developing countries around the world, particularly in Asia.

Question 76

How did the G20 countries cooperate to recover from a global recession?

Answer 76

• In 2009, the British Prime Minister Gordon Brown hosted a G20 summit in London, noting that recovery from a global recession required a wider group of countries to make decisions about global economic policy.
• Subsequent summits have attempted to reform the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and examine ways of tackling the demographic issues created by an ageing world population.

Question 77

What is a criticism of the G20 group?

Answer 77

• There has been criticism that widening the group membership from 8 to 20 still excludes and under-represents the African continent, besides omitting some developed countries such as Norway, the world’s seventh-largest contributor to UN development programmes.

Question 78

What is the wider G77 group?

Answer 78

• A wider group (G77) represents the interests of developing nations, which broadly includes all UN members except those in Europe, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Commonwealth of Independent States, and a few other countries.

Question 79

What did Australia propose to the G20 in 2014?

Answer 79

• In 2014 Australia proposed the exclusion of Russia from the G20 following its military action in the Crimea, Ukraine, in addition to its ban from the GB.

Question 80

What are the BRICS countries?

Answer 80

• Russia is considered a country with economic potential, along with Brazil, India, China and South Africa, collectively referred to as the BRICS countries.
• The term BRIC was first used in 2001 to represent the largest emerging economies at the time; the S was added in 2010.
• Their relatively small influence at the World Bank and the IMF prompted their first summit in Yekaterinburg in 2009.

Question 81

How did the BRICS countries increase their global influence?

Answer 81

• By July 2014 the BRICS announced that they would create two new financial institutions in order to increase their influence around the world.
• The New Development Bank (NDP) will compete with the IMF to finance infrastructure and other development projects, with a budget of US$50 billion.
• As arrival to the World Bank, US$100 billion will be made available through the ‘Contingent Reserve Arrangement’ (CRA).

Question 82

What was the purpose of the BRICS countries creating the 2 new institutions?

Answer 82

• These new institutions are intended to meet the needs of developing countries that experience frustration having to implement pro free-market reforms before being allowed access to funds from the World Bank.
• However, emerging countries have yet to sustain their growth, and they were badly affected by the 2008 recession.
• Brazil and South Africa’s economies are under considerable threat, and China’s economy, although still growing (at a much slower rate), is based on high levels of debt that could a trigger a significant economic collapse.

Question 83

What are the MINT countries and what role will they play in the future along with the BRICS?

Answer 83

• The BRICS countries influence is based on their ability to purchase commodities and manufacture goods so that other countries are dependent on them.
• In 2011 the term MINT was first used, to refer to Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, which are also showing signs of economic emergence.
• The growth of the BRICS and MINT countries suggests that a multipolar world is developing.
• Together these countries also play an important role in global environmental governance, not least through their contribution to global conferences such as the COP Climate Change summits, the latest of which was held in Paris in 2015.

Question 84

Why was the G20 not imperative in overcoming the 2008 global recession?

Answer 84

• Overall, many regard the G20 as a useful global forum for action after the 2008 global financial crisis and ensuing recession.
• However, individual countries may act in more pragmatic ways in order to attain a secure financial future.
• The effectiveness of BRICS countries partly depends on whether developing countries look to their institutions (CRA and NOB) for alternative funding.
• The consequences of military incursions by China and Russia represent a significant threat to stability and the superpower balance.

Question 85

How do the G20 influence the world economically ?

Answer 85

ECONOMIC

• Minimal impact on nancial markets because discussions about change happen over a longer time-period.
• More money is available for the IMF, to help tackle global recession.

Question 86

How do the G20 influence the world politically?

Answer 86

POLITICAL

• Newer members of the G20 tend not to keep agreements and commitments as seriously.
• Countries have started to share financial information to fight tax evasion, and agreed to monitor one another’s actions.

Question 87

How do the G20 influence the military?

Answer 87

MILITARY
- The GZ0 was divided over military action in Syria - Russia and China
lead opposition against the USA.
- Some countries are engaged in unilateral military action for example Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

Question 88

How do the G20 influence the world culturally?

Answer 88

CULTURAL

- Indirectly support the spread of globalisation.

Question 89

How do the G20 influence the world demographically?

Answer 89

• Focused on creating economic growth by encouraging private business to invest in infrastructure; will help tackle youth unemployment.

Question 90

How do the G20 influence the world environmentally?

Answer 90

ENVIRONMENTAL

• Agreed a post-recession ‘green stimulus package’ worth US$1.1 trillion and commitment to remove fossil fuel subsidies.
• Have agreed on a need to tackle climate change and global health issues, for example ebola; but without committing money or agreeing quantitative targets.

Question 91

How do BRICS influence the world economically?

Answer 91

ECONOMIC
- They are the only US$1 trillion economies outside the OECD.
- But growth rates have slowed since
2013, and consumer spending is still low because of ageing populations.

Question 92

How do BRICS influence the world politically?

Answer 92

POLITICAL
- China has become a ‘mega-trader’ larger than imperial Britain: commodity prices have soared while manufacturing costs have shrunk.

Question 93

How do BRICS influence the military?

Answer 93

MILITARY

• Increased military expenditure with incursions into South China Sea and NATO airspace, Ukraine and Georgia.
• But direct conflict with NATO would still leave them outmatched.

Question 94

How do BRICS influence the world culturally?

Answer 94

CULTURAL

- Cultural differences mean there is a lack of common understanding, which limits sharing of experiences.

Question 95

How do BRICS influence the world demographically?

Answer 95

DEMOGRAPHIC
- Large populations mean a huge labour market and flourishing universities with many science and engineering graduates.
- However, working-age populations are starting to shrink, and not all
countries are creating enough jobs.

Question 96

How do BRICS influence the world environmentally?

Answer 96

ENVIRONMENTAL

• Historic rise in greenhouse-gas emissions: three of the top four polluters are BRICS countries.
• Starting to lead the world in renewable energy production, for example solar panel production in China.

Question 97

Why was Rostow’s modernisation theory created?

Answer 97

• Developed by Walt Rostow in the 1960s, this five-step model is summarised in.
• The model was used to explain the growth and dominance of the British Empire and the USA.
• In the post-war period, the government of the USA believed that if enough investment was made in developing countries, this would stimulate industrial change (‘take-off’) and they would be able to repay their loans.
• This would also lead to the economic growth necessary to reduce the influence of communism from Russia or China.
• This theory is sometimes associated with a neoliberal approach to the development gap and explains why some believe continued investment by a country’s TNCs (for example Chinese) would lead to increased superpower status around the world.

Question 98

What are the 5 stages in Rostow’s modernisation theory?

Answer 98

1. Traditional society:
   - Based on subsistence farming, shing, forestry and some mining.
   - Technology is lacking and resources are undeveloped.
2. Conditions for take-off:
   - Conditions for development include profits from farming and improving infrastructure such as the transport network, power supplies and commnications networks.
   - Extractive industries also develop.
3. Take-off:
   - The introduction and rapid growth of manufacturing industries, better infrastructure, financial investment, and culture change as part of an industrial revolution.
4. The drive to maturity:
   - New ideas and technology improve and replace older industries, and economic growth spreads through all sectors and areas of a country.
5. High mass consumption:
   - People have more wealth and so buy services and goods, i.e. they become consumers; welfare systems are fully developed; trade expands and consolidates links.
   ? Post-consumer society: A possible stage where people maximise leisure time at home, locally or abroad, industries are automated, and the internet creates strong links.

Question 99

What is the dependency theory?

Answer 99

• Developed by Andre Frank in 1971.
• Frank believed that TNC investment in developing countries led to the exploitation of skilled labour and cheap raw materials, as well as creating international debt.
• Frank described this unequal relationship as the ‘development of underdevelopment’, because poorer countries did not have the resources, technical skills or institutions that could help them resist exploitation.
• Some believe that the USA’s influence over the WTO and IMF allow the country to benefit, to the detriment of developing countries.
• The implication of dependency theory is that some kind of revolutionary break would allow developing countries to have a voice; such a viewpoint would see the BRICS countries actions to establish a new development bank as an example of this kind of change.

Question 100

What is the world systems theory?

Answer 100

• Developed by Immanuel Wallerstein in 1974, this theory looks at change from a wider spatial and temporal perspective.
• Spatially, the world’s global market is divided into three sections where countries compete politically and economically: a developed core, a developing periphery and the semi-periphery where changes and tensions might occur, for example in the BRICS and MINT countries.
• Temporally, the world economy moves in long-term (Kondratiev) cycles, in which global depressions follow major changes in production roughly every 50-60 years.
• the most recent depression was in 2008.
• Global finance had taken advantage of the internet, and investments occurred faster and were more widespread, with increasingly risky investments and loans being made that were ultimately unjustifiable.
• Although governments stepped in to support struggling banks and some businesses, the loss of jobs slowed the movement of money and consumer spending, causing an economic recession.

Question 101

What normally happens after a global recession?

Answer 101

• After a recession, economic growth normally recovers following a stimulus of new industries and increased spending.
• Often, a government will make public sector investments in expensive new infrastructure, which helps stimulate growth in the private sector (a multiplier effect).
• Highly entrepreneurial businesses take advantage of the new technology, which determines how economic growth takes place in the next wave; this could be in the environment and biotechnology sectors.
• If governments are unable to provide investment at the bottom of a recession, sovereign wealth from other countries, such as resource-rich areas of the Gulf States, might provide the stimulus.
• The investment creates a new power dynamic where the lender gains influence.

Question 102

What did China have the opportunity to do after the 2008 global recession?

Answer 102

• After 2008, China had an opportunity to assist European banks, but it did not.
• Political analysts such as Will Hutton concluded that China’s internal challenges, such as an ageing population, threaten its rise to superpower status.
• The interactions between countries in the semi-periphery, and with the struggling established superpowers, will shape the pattern of power over the next few decades.

Question 103

How did the creation of IGOs first come about?

Answer 103

• After the Second World War, the Allied countries believed that an international economic system with greater cooperation between countries was necessary to prevent a future war.
• The Bretton Woods conference held in New Hampshire in 1944 led to the rules and intergovernmental organisations (IGOs) that now dominate international decision-making.
• The most notable IGOs are the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the predecessors to the World Bank and the WorldTrade Organization (WTO).

Question 104

What are the roles of the main IGOs (OECD, World bank, WTO)?

Answer 104

• The OECD’s self-stated mission is to improve the economic and social wellbeing of people world wide through the promotion of improvement policies.
• The World Bank provides nancial and technical assistance to developing countries.
• It aims to end extreme poverty (those living on less than US$1.90/day) and to promote prosperity among the lower 40% of each country’s inhabitants.
• The WTO manages the global rules of international trade; part of which includes world patents.

Question 105

What countries are the biggest contributors to IGOs?

Answer 105

• Predominately controlled by western states one should remember they are indirect instruments through which the west exerts its influence.
• Typically, the biggest contributors to these IGOs are the USA, UK, Germany, France, Japan and Canada.
• At the time of the Bretton Woods Agreement, Soviet Russia refused to ratify agreements to set up these organisations.

Question 106

What led to high levels of international trade after the second world war?

Answer 106

• although colonialism was an early precursor of globalised free trade, the opening up of markets after 1945 led to unprecedented levels of international trade.
• Typically, the biggest contributors to these IGOs are the USA, UK, Germany, France, Japan and Canada.

Question 107

What IGO was formed in Russia and what was the reaction from Western Europe and North America?

Answer 107

• At the time of the Bretton Woods Agreement, Soviet Russia refused to ratify agreements to set up these organisations.
• After the West formed the predecessor to the OECD to distribute US aid to rebuild Europe through the Marshall Plan, Russia formed Comecon, an IGO intended to facilitate cooperation between socialist and communist countries.
• In response to raised levels of threat from the Soviet Union, Western Europe and North America created the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) military alliance.
• While Comecon ceased to exist after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1991, other IGOs continue to place key decisions about global issues in the hands of a relatively small number of leaders.

Question 108

What do IGOs aim to promote and what negative impacts can this cause?

Answer 108

• IGOs aim to promote free trade and capitalism in countries around the world.
• The policies they encourage or impose are intended to help countries go through Rostow’s hypothesised five stages of modernisation theory that the USA and Europe have already experienced.
• Critics point to dependency theory to show how some policies, such as structural adjustment programmes, although intended to reduce poverty through loans, may erode national sovereignty and promote austerity programmes in those countries, sometimes undermining education, health and social programmes.
• Jubilee Debt Relief programmes established between 2000 and 2010 require countries to stay on track to continue with debt cancellation.
• These decisions demonstrate the in uence superpower countries maintain through IGOs.

Question 109

What do the Davos group aim to do and why are they criticised?

Answer 109

• An IGO of global significance is the Davos Group.
• The group originated in Switzerland where it meets annually at the World Economic Forum (WEF).
• About 2,500 people (business leaders, political leaders, intellectuals and journalists) are invited to Davos to discuss different themes, which have included ‘educational technology’, ‘resilient dynamism’, ‘mastering the 4th industrial revolution’ and ‘income inequality’.
• The group is criticised for prioritising capitalism and globalisation at the expense of tackling poverty, as well as placing too much trust in individuals who are not always trusted in their own countries.
• However, bringing influential leaders together to exchange ideas and agree to cooperate is a vital way to tackle international problems.

Question 110

Why do companies invest in research and development?

Answer 110

• Transnational companies invest large amounts of money in research and development in order to
  maintain their competitive edge.
• Each new product requires expertise, time, specialist equipment and materials. The academic research that underpins these developments is often funded by TNCs.
• For example, Queen’s University in Belfast, which has one of the leading university engineering departments in the UK, maintains links with companies such as Bombardier, Jaguar Land Rover and Rolls-Royce.

Question 111

Why are patents useful?

Answer 111

• Innovation and the ‘knowledge economy’ are driven by the global patents system, which protects intellectual property by issuing patents.
• Whether the product is artistic, commercial, financial, technological or even strands of DNA, the rights of the inventor are protected, usually for 20 years, during which time they will be able to make a profit from their discovery or invention.

Question 112

Who are patents used by?

Answer 112

• While patent law goes back many centuries, the system as currently organised by the WTO was established to give Western companies international protection in the face of global competition.
• Nevertheless, there is a lot of counterfeiting of popular brands and products - mainly US, Italian and French ones - particularly by China.
• Global trade in fake goods accounted for about 2.5 per cent ofworld imports in 2013, and 5 per cent of EU imports (OECD and EU Intellectual Property Office).

Question 113

How do TNCs take advantage of patents in the pharmaceutical industry?

Answer 113

• The pharmaceuticals industry is a controversial beneficiary of patenting laws:
• TNCs control access to medicinal drugs, and some will not invest in developing treatments for diseases in developing countries because they cannot guarantee a profit.
• There have also been cases where indigenous technical knowledge about the medicinal properties of local plants has become the intellectual property of companies.
• However, since the development of medicines is very costly, without patenting laws companies might not bother to do the research in the first place.
• The WTO has tried to help by permitting developing countries to import cheaper versions of essential medicines before patents expire.
• Sometimes, to improve its media image, a company runs charitable programmes; for example GlaxoSmithKline has teamed up with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to distribute more than US$28 billion of the malaria vaccine Mosquirix.

Question 114

Why are TNCs in some countries state owned or under tight state controls?

Answer 114

• In some countries, particularly China, TNCs operate under tight state controls, and some strategic industries (banking, energy, telecommunications and transport) are state-owned.
• Although private individuals may own a small number of the shares, TNCs operate much like government departments.
• The advantage of this is that governments can invest in long-term development, such as roads, railways, ports and renewable energy.
• This drives economic growth and allows countries like China to make neocolonial investments in other continents, or provide sovereign wealth funds for projects.
• The disadvantage of these state companies is that they can become corrupt, discourage private investment and innovation, and are vulnerable to accumulating large levels of debt as a result of inefficient operations.

Question 115

Why are most businesses in the UK and USA state owned?

Answer 115

• Following the privatisation policy of the 1980s and 1990s, few state-owned companies are left in the UK and the USA.
• The UK government has, however, rescued banks such as Northern Rock and the Royal Bank of Scotland, to save them from collapse, but with the stated aim of re-privatising them.
• A few UK companies remain state­ controlled in the public interest (such as the BBC), or where safety is too high a priority to be left subject to financial priorities (for example Network Rail, the National Health Service and the National Nuclear Laboratory).

Question 116

How do some TNCs for example HSBC show influence and power over government?

Answer 116

• TNCs exert a lot of power and influence.
• In 2015 HSBC announced that it might move its global headquarters out of the UK because the UK government was imposing a banking levy that would threaten its profits.
• In 2016, partly due to this threat, the UK government reduced the levy to a surcharge, which will still lower HSBC profits but not as much as the levy would have. Together with a slowing Chinese economy, this arguably persuaded HSBC to keep its headquarters in London.

Question 117

How has a western cultural influence emerged?

Answer 117

• Using the latest communications and transport technology, TNCs have spread Western culture to other parts of the world.
• Even during colonial times, modernisation was about more than just economic growth; then as now, traditional ethnic and religious values were viewed as barriers to profitable relationships between a company and its workers.
• By the 1990s a Westernised ‘global culture’ was beginning to emerge, dominated by consumerism, capitalism, wealth-creation, an Anglicised culture with English as the dominant language and selective absorption of other aspects of popular culture.

Question 118

How has the UK spread their western influences globally and what impact has this had on soft power?

Answer 118

• in 2015, the UK was ranked highest in terms of soft - power score, and China was at the bottom of a 30-country index.
• Although the survey was by a London-based company, some reasons for the scores include the factors of diplomatic engagement (the number of missions and embassies overseas), the number of internationally chart-topping music albums, the foreign following of football teams and the quality of higher education.
• The UK performs well on all these factors.
• Some of the reasons for low scores in other countries involved factors such as restricted access to the internet, undemocratic government and gender gaps.

Question 119

How did the UN security council come about?

Answer 119

• In 1945, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt proposed a council he called ‘The Four Policeman’.
• His vision was that the USA, the UK, the Soviet Union and the Republic of China would be responsible for guaranteeing peace around the world, sitting as four permanent members of the UN Security Council.
• The final ‘version’ of the United Nations, although different, included veto power for these four countries, underlining their significance as real or perceived superpowers.
• Their global actions have included the following: crisis response, conflict prevention and climate change mitigation.

Question 120

What role do the UN security council countries play in crisis response?

Answer 120

• Britain contributed over US$1.5 billion of aid to the 2015/16 humanitarian crisis in Syria, making it the second-largest contributor behind the USA.
• Unlike other countries in the EU, the UK has focused its aid on humanitarian projects in Syria and aid for refugees in nearby countries.
• By focusing on quality of life in source countries, the UK hopes to prevent migrants being tracked into the EU.

Question 121

What role do the UN security council countries play in conflict prevention?

Answer 121

• The UK prioritises prevention of conflict in fragile states, using programmes like ‘Official Development Assistance’ and the Arab Partnership Programme to help countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
• On some occasions military action has been used to prevent conflict and, in 2014-15, Britain was part of a coalition action against Islamic State territory in Iraq.
• Britain has one of the most advanced military targeting systems in the world, so that loss of civilian life is minimised.

Question 122

What role do the UN security council countries play in Climate change mitigation?

Answer 122

• After agreements at the regular Conference of the Parties (COP) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) there was a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
• Some important actions have come about due to changes in superpower status, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union which helped to reduce the number of polluting factories and, and the slowdown in China’s economy and consequent energy use.
• a clear global policy (such as the 1989 Montreal
  Protocol on the stratospheric ozone layer) can have a significant impact.
• Mitigation of climate change requires the world’s largest polluters (the USA and China) to take action to reduce emissions.
• The decision in 2014 by the USA and China to recognise the need for action was a significant shift in policy by both countries, perhaps in response to multipolar world influences.

Question 123

What roles has NATO played since its creation?

Answer 123

• France, the UK and the USA were founding members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in 1949.
• As members of this military alliance, they are committed to defending against military incursion into any member state.
• Membership has increased, with eastern European countries on Russia’s border joining NATO a er the collapse of the Soviet Union.
• In 2016 NATO was operating in Turkey to install Patriot Missile Systems to defend against factions in Syria.
• In Afghanistan, NATO forces are training Afghan security forces to combat fundamentalist terror threats from groups within the country.
• Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine territory in 2014, NATO became a world player again, as countries in the Caucasus (western Asia) may seek membership of NATO, and Russian military aggression has shown the role that a military alliance can have.

Question 124

Why was ANZUS formed and what is its role?

Answer 124

• A similar military alliance to NATO in the Asia-Pacific region, ANZUS, operates between Australia, the USA, New Zealand, Japan and the Philippines.
• ANZUS was established in 1951, later widened in 1953-4.
• Recognising an increased military threat from China, the USA is shifting its military focus away from Europe.
• 1,000 Chinese missiles are still aimed at Taiwan, tension between North and South Korea is ongoing, and China is using military force to strengthen its claim on the uninhabited Spratly Islands, which are subject to competing claims by five other countries.

Question 125

What is ASEAN and what is its role?

Answer 125

• Economic alliances regard mutual trade and interdependence as the best way to increase global influence.
• In the Asia-Pacific region, efforts have been made to strengthen the ASEAN trade bloc (Association of SouthEast Asian Nations), within which a single market was introduced in 2016 so that goods, services, capital and skilled labour could flow freely between member countries.
• Many of ASEAN’s member countries have experienced huge economic growth on their own, and, with young populations, the political will to work together has not been very strong.

Question 126

What is the EU and what is its role?

Answer 126

• By contrast to ASEAN, the EU is both a free-trade and political bloc, initially created in 1957 so that interdependence would reduce the likelihood of another continental war.
• Unlike ASEAN, a complex set of supranational institutions exists to ensure the implementation of common standards, which forces the countries to work together, causing frustration for some (such as the UK) when faced with the burden of supporting struggling economies (such as Spain and Greece).
• Some countries in Europe (such as Norway and Switzerland) prefer to opt in to the free-trade market but not to political union, and they continue to govern themselves.

Question 127

Why may TNCs support the NAFTA?

Answer 127

• TNCs such as Bombardier can benefit from operating within NAFTA, as they can manufacture in Mexico where labour is freely available and cheap, design in Canada where research and development are particularly strong, and export via the USA’s high-quality infrastructure, free from Canada’s strict rules, such as shipping movements on its Pacific coast.

Question 128

Benefits of trade blocs like NAFTA for all countries?

Answer 128

+ Region-wide transport infrastructure increases efficiency - for example rail network transporting components and goods to and from Mexico and Canada.
+ Production and services in the cheapest and most e cient place (Mexico), which lowers prices for consumers.

Question 129

Negatives of trade blocs like NAFTA for all countries?

Answer 129

• Agreements are sometimes biased to rich-world interests, for example the USA has heavy border restrictions on goods and people.
• National policy can get in the way, for example environmental regulation in Canada prevented new ports.
• Subsidies can get in the way, for example fair trade.

Question 130

Benefits and problems of trade blocs like NAFTA for developing countries (Mexico)?

Answer 130

+ Better market access
+ Better-paid jobs because more FDI, for example
aircraft fuselages constructed in Mexico.
- Bulk exports of some goods can force local producers out of business.
- Rich countries shop around and new agreements sometimes override old ones, for example TNCs locating in China.

Question 131

How did the UN form and what are its aims?

Answer 131

• One of the most significant IGOs in the world is the United Nations.
• It was established in 1945 and has grown from 26 countries in 1945 to 193 by 2016.
• The aim of the UN is to revent a recurrence
  of global conflict, by focusing on establishing fundamental human rights and equal rights for both men and women in all nations.
• The UN is a forum for member nations to express opinions and grievances, propose actions to resolve disputes and ask for (or offer) assistance from other member states.
• In addition to hosting conferences on global issues (annual conferences on climate change began in 1991), superpowers and emerging countries can influence geopolitical stability through the various UN institutions.

Question 132

What does the UN security council do?

Answer 132

• The UN Security Council can authorise and direct action to resolve conflict, either through economic sanctions (for example trade restrictions), insisting on the use of the International Court of Justice, or by authorising military intervention (for example UN peacekeeping forces).
• In 2016 there were 16 UN peacekeeping missions deployed around the world, made up of military personnel from every member state.
• Some of the largest contributors are India, Nigeria, Indonesia and Egypt.
• There are ve permanent members of the UN Security Council - the USA, Russia, China, France and the UK.
• Other countries are elected for two-year periods.

Question 133

What does the International court of Justice do?

Answer 133

• The International Court of Justice resolves legal questions and disputes brought to it by UN member states.
• It is based in The Hague in the Netherlands, and its nine judges are nominated by the UN General Assembly and the UN Security Council.
• They are all from di erent countries, distributed by geographical region, but the five permanent members of the Security Council always have a judge in the court.
• Recent decisions include settling a dispute between Bolivia and Chile: Bolivia is a landlocked country but has a navy.
• and the Chilean government was resisting giving Bolivia access to its coastline.

Question 134

How has China contributed to the UN security council and the success of the UN?

Answer 134

• Until recently China repeatedly abstained from votes, believing that
  even peacekeeping is interference, but it has started to engage with issues that help it achieve its international superpower ambitions.
• China’s financial contribution has grown to help with peacekeeping, climate-change impacts and development projects.
• For example, China deployed 8,000 troops to South Sudan in October 2015 and has a allocated US$6 billion to help meet the UN’s new sustainable development goals.
• However, China still refuses to engage with the UN’s Permanent Court of Arbitration, charged with ruling on the dispute between China and the Philippines over the interpretation of UNCLOS (the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea) in the disputed areas of the South China Sea.

Question 135

What problems can arise from superpowers consuming large amounts of resources?

Answer 135

• Superpowers, established or emerging, consume large amounts of resources.
• These are often non-renewable and, while these countries may have large supplies of their own, such as oil and gas in Russia and rainforest products and iron ore in Brazil, they import other resources.
• With their growing populations, there is an increasing demand for resources (including food and water), which often a ects the natural environment through degradation.

Question 136

How can demand for resources cause landscape scarring?

Answer 136

• Opencast mining removes vegetation and scars the landscape.
• Most mines in Britain closed in the 20th century, but in 2015 Drakelands Pit in Devon became the first new mine to open since 1969, extracting tungsten.
• The price of tungsten had doubled because supply from China and the USA was running low.
• These operations also create local noise and air pollution, and if extraction of a mineral requires other chemicals, the waste may contaminate groundwater.

Question 137

How can increased demand for resources such as coal cause degradation of the built environment?

Answer 137

• Industrial chimneys may emit pollutants high into the atmosphere, where they mix with rainfall to form acid rain.
• In 2003 more than 250 Chinese cities were affected by acid rain, created economic losses of US$13.3 billion.
• Residential chimneys emit pollutants closer to the ground and these pollutants become local dry deposition, often causing weathering of cement or limestone in buildings.

Question 138

Who are the worlds largest co2 emitters?

Answer 138

• China has become the world’s largest emitter of CO2 - 9.7 billion tonnes during 2014 - with the USA second, with emissions of 5.6 billion tonnes.

Question 139

How have Chinese co2 emissions varied since 2014?

Answer 139

• Chinese CO2 emissions grew by only 1.2 per cent in 2014, compared to the earlier average annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent, but only because of economic slowdown.

Question 140

How can oil spills cause environmental degradation?

Answer 140

• In 2010 BP’s Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.
• About 450 million litres (100 million gallons) of oil escaped from the undersea wellhead, polluting the sea and nearby coastline.
• Chemicals in the spraying dispersant used to reduce the oil slick damaged marine life as well as other wildlife along the coast near the Mississippi delta.

Question 141

How has Brazils food production increased between 2002 and 2012?

Answer 141

• Brazil’s food production increased by 26 per cent between 2002 and 2012 (FAO), turning it from the world’s largest importer to a major exporter.

Question 142

How has demand for food in Brazil caused environmental degradation?

Answer 142

• Forest has to be cleared and the land converted to cropland and pasture (particularly for growing soya, used for cattle feed).
• Other Brazilian exports include poultry, sugar cane, ethanol and soya bean.
• However, meat production, in particular, requires more intensive use of resources: approximately 15,000 litres of water are needed to produce a kilogram of beef, but only 1,250 litres for a kilo of maize or wheat.
• Agriculture causes 8-18 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, when deforestation to create pasture is included.
• In the 1990s Brazil deforested an area the size of Belgium, although deforestation rates fell significantly (by 70 per cent) in the early 21st century.

Question 143

How large are Brazils beef exports?

Answer 143

• Beef exports have increased by ten times and Brazil’s cattle ranching is now the second-largest in the world, behind India.

Question 144

What are the positive impacts of superpowers reducing environmental degradation?

Answer 144

• The actions of superpowers to reduce environmental degradation set an example for other countries to follow, and have the benefit of stimulating the growth of eco-friendly technology.
• The USA and China agreed only in 2014 to start reducing their CO2 emissions - by 2025 and 2030 respectively.
• Mass production of new technology (for example solar panels) can lower the unit price, making such technology more viable for consumers.
• However, superpowers and emerging countries often resist initiating changes that might damage their economies, so achieving global agreements on environmental issues can be difficult and takes a long time.

Question 145

How and why have China tried to reduce environmental degradation?

Answer 145

• China’s use of resource is motivated by national pride.
• China had a disastrous famine in the 1950s, and never wants to experience a lack of food again. Like other developing and emerging economies, agreement to cut CO2 emissions could limit China’s economic growth.
• However, the post-2008 economic slowdown has drawn attention to the costs of environmental degradation (9 per cent of GDP in 2012) and the associated poor global reputation for pollution.
• Measures to protect the environment have started to be applied, and Chinese companies are now some of the biggest clean-energy firms in the world, with heavy investment in the production of solar panels.

Question 146

What was the EU agricultural policy for many decades and how did this cause environmental degradation?

Answer 146

• In the EU, for many decades, EU agricultural subsidies through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) encouraged farmers to grow food intensively, using chemical fertilisers and pesticides,
  which caused problems such as lost hedgerows and eutrophication of water resources.
• The same food could have been imported at lower cost from overseas, but the policy was to protect EU farmers, especially in France, where farming is part of the national identity, and where certain local foods still define town markets and restaurants.

Question 147

How has Russia reduced emissions and environmental degradation?

Answer 147

• Russia has taken a lead in reducing greenhouse emissions by using nanotechnologies, energy­ efficiency laws and other mandatory changes to energy consumption and production.
• As a result, it has a surplus of carbon credits to trade in the global carbon emissions trading scheme.
• Russia is keen to ensure that any agreement reached is fair, recognising that many countries could lose out economically in systems like a trading scheme.

Question 148

How could Russia’s efforts to reduce emissions limit their political power?

Answer 148

• The production and export of natural gas provide a source of political power in Russia, which has allowed it to manipulate countries on its border, including those in the EU.
• However, it has also created political uncertainty, which has harmed its level of influence.
• Carbon dioxide emissions limits may also reduce the movement of fossil fuels and further reduce Russia’s power.

Question 149

Why are the USA reluctant to decrease emissions to pre ent environmental degradation?

Answer 149

• In the USA some people, including a few scientists, remain sceptica about the problems and consequences of climate change.
• Political debate has therefore lasted several decades and is
  an issue between right-wing and left-wing thinkers.
• the right wing resist government intervention and want a free market to allow businesses to grow without regulation.
• the left wing argue for the health of people and the environment.
• Reducing carbon dioxide emissions is a cost for companies, and would challenge energy businesses in particular, which makes them resistant to change.

Question 150

Why are countries discouraged by being the first to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

Answer 150

• Climate change is an example of a global ‘tragedy-of-the-commons’, because in the long term all countries potentially gain from reducing the e ects of climate change.
• Unfortunately, any country that initiates change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions may suffer in the short term, as others ‘free ride’ on the benefits.
• This discourages countries taking action independently, which shows the importance of international agreements such as Kyoto in 1997 and Paris in 2015.

Question 151

How have emerging countries caused a higher demand for rare earth elements?

Answer 151

• Increasing wealth in emerging countries has increased demand for more high-tech goods, many of which depend on ‘rare earth’ elements.
• Some estimates suggest the business of generating rare earth elements is worth US$4 billion a year, with the collective worth of companies that rely on them estimated to be US$5 trillion.

Question 152

How can processing rare earth elements have a harmful impact on the environment?

Answer 152

• Many rare earths have similar chemical properties because they are often found in the presence of radioactive thorium or uranium.
• A great deal of water, acid and electricity is used in the extraction processes to separate the ore from toxins, many of which are carcinogenic.
• Processing one tonne of rare earths can produce 2,000 tonnes of toxic waste, and if this waste mixes with surface water or groundwater there is a significant environmental impact.

Question 153

How is China processing rare earth elements harming the environment?

Answer 153

• China produces 85 per cent of the global rare earths: in Baotou, a small village that produces over half of China’s supply, 10 million tonnes
  of waste water per year is pumped into containment ponds from where it seeps into groundwater and drinking water sources.
• Livestock near the mines are also a ected, decreasing the income of agricultural communities nearby.
• In recent years China has restricted the refining and eventual export of these products in order to keep their price high, but this has had the effect of expanding mining in other parts of the world because the higher price makes it economic to do so.

Question 154

What consequences have resulted from increased supplies of staple food grains?

Answer 154

• Although the increase in the supply of staple food grains is undisputed, there are some unintended consequences.
• For example, the Green Revolution in India caused soil degradation and chemical runo of excess fertilisers resulting in eutrophication.
• Although rice consumption has stabilised in India, consumption has increased by 50 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa and has grown steadily in the USA and the EU because of immigration and increasing awareness of the value of a healthier fibre-based diet, so environmental problems may continue or spread.

Question 155

What are the concerns associated with the overuse of available water supplies?

Answer 155

• There are concerns that industrialising countries will overuse available water,
  for both drinking and farming staple grains.
• In India, where farmers have been supplied with solar-powered pumps, groundwater in some states is being used three times faster than it can
  be replenished.
• As glaciers continue to melt and river discharges eventually decrease due their source diminishing, climate change could make this problem worse.

Question 156

How has the overuse of water supplies in California impacted south western USA?

Answer 156

• In California, drought in the south-western USA also affects crop production.
• Pre-existing water rights along the Colorado and Sacramento Rivers mean that extraction has been difficult to redirect in a drought that has lasted since 2010.
• Many Californian farmers have used more groundwater, but the water table is dropping and ground subsidence has been noted.
• California is a very important farming area in the USA, producing two-thirds of the country’s fruit and nuts for example.
• Consumer demand for vegetables, salads and nuts has increased rapidly as healthy diets have become a priority; this encourages agribusinesses to extract more water to increase yields.

Question 157

Why have the use of water supplies increased over time?

Answer 157

• The use of resources has increased over time due to larger population numbers, with more consumers needing energy, food and water for example.
• Since the independence of colonial countries many more have economically developed (emerging economies) with a larger range of industries using more raw materials and energy.
• People have also become relatively more wealthy and so demand more resources and a wider range of them, either directly or through the products that they buy.

Question 158

Why is it predicted that oil is a resource that will run out in 2061?

Answer 158

• Oil is an example of a resource that has been in increased demand.
• Some countries and TNCs have benefitted from oil, such as Saudi Arabia and BP.
• There is a lot of trade and geopolitical manoeuvring between those countries that have oil resources, such as OPEC, USA and Russia.
• One prediction is that oil will run out in 2061, certainly ‘peak oil’ production has passed, this has put pressure on more remote areas such as the Arctic Ocean from oil exploitation.

Question 159

Why is the Arctic Ocean an area of conflict?

Answer 159

• It is estimated that a quarter of the world’s undiscovered oil and natural gas may be located in the Arctic Ocean.
• Receding polar ice is increasing the possibility of accessing these reserves.
• This is a potential area of conflict and there are already territorial boundary disputes.
• The debate has started on how to exploit these resources sustainably, and who has sovereignty over different parts of the seabed.

Question 160

Why isn’t it feasible to extract oil from the Arctic Ocean?

Answer 160

• The US Geological Survey estimates the cost of extraction to be about US$37 per barrel, in comparison to US$2 per barrel to extract oil in Saudi Arabia.
• Eventually, though, the price of oil may increase to a level where it becomes economically feasible to extract from the Arctic Ocean.

Question 161

Which areas of the Arctic Ocean are in dispute?

Answer 161

1 USA Continental Shelf
- if the USA ratified the Law of the Sea treaty, it could claim territory here roughly half the size of Alaska.
2 Chukchi Sea
- Shell has plans to explore here. But since Russia is claiming nearly half the Arctic Ocean, it may run into trouble.
- A 100-square-mile area in this body of water is said to be rich in oil and gas, but it’s in dispute - so no one has bid on a drilling lease offered by both Canada and the USA.
4 Lomonosov Ridge
- This giant undersea landmass extends from Russia to Greenland - and the two countries are fighting over it.
- In June, 2007 Russia said its scientists found evidence of a 70-billion-barrel deposit and claimed rights to the whole ridge.

Question 162

What does the UNCLOS state about land disputes?

Answer 162

• Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), countries can claim the right to exploit resources in an area up to 200 nautical miles beyond their coastline (the Exclusive Economic Zone, or EEZ).

Question 163

How has the UNCLOS caused disputes in the arctic?

Answer 163

• There are many areas in the Arctic Ocean where EEZs overlap and are disputed.
• A Russian submarine controversially planted a flag on the Lomonosov Ridge, claiming it was directly connected to the Russian continental shelf.
• Russia has claimed nearly half of the Arctic (half a million square miles) and granted permits to its own companies to exploit it.
• Canada compared the move to an old-style colonial land grab and, together with the USA and Norway, does not recognise Russia’s claim as legitimate.

Question 164

What military developments have occurred in the Arctic between 2002 - 2012?

Answer 164

2002:
- Canada recommenced military exercises in the
Arctic that are now conducted annually.
2003:
- Norway built Fridtjof Nansen class frigates.
2007:
- Russian submarine planted a Russian flag at the North Pole and Russia restarted long-range Arctic bomber patrols.
2009:
- USA released its National Arctic Policy placing
Arctic security as the number one priority.
- Denmark published plans to create both an Arctic
military command and an Arctic Response Force.
2012:
- Chinese icebreaker, the Xuelong, navigated the
Northern Sea Route for the first time.

Question 165

Why does the US government want to prevent the exploration and exploitation of the Arctic wildlife refuge in Alaska?

Answer 165

• Energy development in the Arctic threatens the natural environment - a fragile ecosystem already under stress from climate change.
• The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, close to the route of the trans-Alaskan pipeline, is an area protected from resource exploration or exploitation.
• However, 88 per cent of Alaska’s budget depends on oil revenues, and the US government is under considerable pressure to allow exploration
• A crucial factor may be the price of oil; if prices are low then the Arctic may be safe.

Question 166

If the Arctic wildlife refuge in Alaska remains protected where will USA get oil from?

Answer 166

• Surprisingly, in 2014 OPEC countries decided against reducing production of oil, and this kept prices low compared with previous years.
• this created serious economic concerns for some countries, such as Venezuela, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, the intention was to reduce or negate the profit margin for USA oil producers.
• This may make production in marginal areas unviable and force big consumer countries like the USA to return to buying oil from Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries, so also returning power over this resource to them. ??????????????????

Question 167

Who are the main counterfeiting countries?

Answer 167

• Counterfeited and pirated products are sold across the world.
• Based on goods seized by customs, in 2016 Bloomberg Business identified the chief suspect countries as China, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, the UAE, Russia and India.
• The OECD also identified some of these countries, as well as Turkey, Morocco, Pakistan and Egypt, from 2013 studies of goods seized by customs.

Question 168

Where are pharmaceutical products counterfeited?

Answer 168

• Pharmaceutical products are among those that are counterfeited, particularly in Africa, while counterfeit electrical goods and music, movies and software are significant around the world.

Question 169

How much money does counterfeiting cost G20 countries?

Answer 169

• Counterfeiting costs G20 countries US$85 billion a year. Digitally pirated music, movies and software account for losses of up to US$75 billion.

Question 170

How can counterfeiting impact the revenues of TNCs?

Answer 170

• The damage to brand image and, in some cases, the endangering of consumers through inferior products (for example electric shocks from generic mobile phone chargers) can have long-term effects on the revenues of leading TNCs.
• Many companies are unable to sustain investment in new technology, and this has discouraged innovation.

Question 171

How have trade relations become strained between Nigeria and China?

Answer 171

• Trade relationships have become strained; for example, in Nigeria there is growing resentment towards China as a result of fires having started due to inferior Chinese electrical goods that cannot cope with Nigeria’s electricity supply.
• Chinese factories have been undercutting Nigeria’s textiles industry by producing counterfeit African fabric designs.

Question 172

Why has counterfeiting increased over time?

Answer 172

• Counterfeiting has grown because global manufacturing has shifted to countries where intellectual property rights are poorly protected.
• The internet has made it easier to find the technological information required to make fake products, as well as to sell and distribute such products around the world.
• In addition, times of global recession can tempt companies to cut costs by using fake goods as part of their supply chain and this, in turn, harms legitimate businesses, raising unemployment levels.
• It is estimated that approximately 2.5 million jobs in developed countries have been lost due to counterfeiting around the world.

Question 173

What is the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement and what country did not sign it?

Answer 173

• In 2011, 32 countries signed the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, including the USA and EU, but the biggest counterfeiter, China, did not sign it.
• US and European companies Tiffany and Gucci are two particularly high-progile ones - have filed lawsuits against prominent Chinese banks that are regarded as ‘safe havens’ for counterfeiters.
• The Chinese government regards bank secrecy as a matter of national sovereignty and has refused US State Department subpoenas for information about Chinese assets.
• However, as China develops, it is encouraging its companies to become more innovative, and is starting to take copyright and intellectual property law more seriously.

Question 174

What is a ‘sphere of influence’?

Answer 174

• The term ‘sphere of influence’ dates back to colonial days, when it referred to areas of the world linked by the same culture, for example francophone countries around the globe.
• During the Cold War, when Soviet Russia and the West were trying to secure greater influence over countries on their periphery, the spatial extent of their level of control was described as a sphere of influence.

Question 175

What are examples of global spheres of influence?

Answer 175

• For example, Western Europe, Oceania, Japan and South Korea were all part of the USA’s sphere of influence, while Russia had Eastern Europe.
• The fractured consequences of the Cold War and post-war US dominance created new implications for people and economies on the edge of Russia and China, or countries that became isolated with the weakening power of the USA and Russia, such as Cuba.

Question 176

What impacts can challenges to spheres of influence cause to the environment and human life?

Answer 176

• As well as the impact on human life, made worse through famine or drought, munitions aimed at destroying enemy targets do extensive damage.
• In the post-2001 Afghan conflict, US weapons are estimated to have destroyed 10,000 villages and their surrounding environments, including safe drinking water sources.
• The destruction of forests had a drastic impact on timber exports, and military activities made it difficult for leopards and birds to survive in the mountain environments.
• Pollution from explosives leaves toxic substances that can cause cancer.
• In the 2006 conflict between Israel and Lebanon, rocket attacks and oil spills killed fish and endangered species of turtles, as well as degrading the beaches in Beirut.

Question 177

Why are emerging countries rapidly increasing their extraction of raw materials?

Answer 177

• The rising value of some metals has led to a series of ‘land grabs’ by emerging countries in the developing world.
• A European Commission report of 2012 revealed that the price of all metals, for example iron ore, rare earths and copper, had increased by an average of 59.2 per cent between 2000 and 2011 and predicted that they would increase by 13.5 per cent between 2010 and 2020.
• Emerging powers are rapidly increasing their extraction of raw materials across Africa, Amazonia and India.
• Mining technology has become more sophisticated, enabling raw materials to be extracted from areas that were previously inaccessible or uneconomic.
• There are associated environmental effects, such as land degradation.

Question 178

How have price falls of commodities strained links between Africa and emerging countries?

Answer 178

• Countries in Africa have experienced growing links with countries elsewhere such as Brazil and China, and 70 per cent of the world’s largest mining deals in 2011 were in Africa, with countries such as Botswana, Mozambique and Namibia seen as particularly attractive for mining.
• However, recent falls in commodity prices have strained all these links and some large companies have sold off their mineral holdings.
• For example, the TNC Anglo-American, founded in 1917, announced in February 2016 that from now on it was going to concentrate on ‘consumer-driven materials’ such as diamonds, copper and platinum.
• During the recession the decrease in demand for products such as steel, especially from China, has lowered commodity prices, squeezing profit margins for companies such as Tata, recently forced to close or sell off expensive iron and steel plants in England and Wales.

Question 179

How is the worlds economic centre of gravity changing?

Answer 179

• In 2012, the McKinsey Global Institute published a report highlighting the movement eastwards of the world’s economic centre of gravity.
• These were some key headline statistics in the report:
  • By 2025, the 600 cities with highest GDP will generate nearly 65 per cent of world economic growth.
  • Of those cities, 440 will be in emerging countries.
  • One billion people will have enough income to be classified as ‘significant consumers of goods and services’.

Question 180

What was the aim of the McKinsey Global Institute report and what does it suggest about the growth of cities?

Answer 180

• The aim of the report was to help companies recognise that most of the 600 cities were not well known outside their own countries and that each city was uniquely different in its demographic and income structures.
• Cities play a crucial role in their home countries and regions, and most growth is projected not to occur in megacities such as Mumbai or Shanghai, but in what have been described as ‘middleweight cities’ such as Surat, 180 miles north of Mumbai, India’s capital for
  synthetic textiles.
• Some megacities in emerging economies, such as Shanghai and Beijing, will grow to overtake developed world cities such as Los Angeles and Paris.
• China and South Asia, particularly India, will account for almost 90 per cent of Asia’s urban population growth and this will create new markets for TNCs; for example, in recent years UK trade has increased most rapidly with China and South Korea.

Question 181

How is China creating tensions by considering itself as a regional power with a large sphere of influence?

Answer 181

• China sees itself as a regional superpower.
• This creates tensions, especially where there are concentrations of military forces, as evidenced in disputes over the South and East China Seas as well as in the escalating hostility towards Taiwan and North Korea.
• China wishes to control maritime trade routes but faces the US Navy operating in international waters and those ofits allies.
• The Philippines and Vietnam signed a strategic partnership in 2015 to increase their power in the region, to which China responded by providing loans for infrastructure projects across the ASEAN alliance (for example US$10 billion in loans and US$560 million in aid for poorer countries) and an economic takeover of a Malaysian power company, linked to the President, to increase its political leverage in the country.

Question 182

What involvement have superpowers had in the Middle East and what territorial conflicts have occurred due to this?

Answer 182

• The involvement of superpowers in the Middle East dates back to the early part of the 20th century.
• the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 divided up the former Ottoman Empire into zones of influence for Britain and France, eventually supported by US President Roosevelt
  and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill after 1945.
• The West’s post-colonial involvement in the Middle East continued with the establishment of the new sovereign states of Iraq, Jordan and, most controversially, Israel - with the associated eviction and landlessness of Palestinians.

Question 183

How has the eviction and landlessness of Palestinians due to the wests involvement caused tensions in Israel?

Answer 183

• Tensions between Palestinian territories - represented by terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah - and Israel have been both supported and challenged by the establishment of the Arab League.
• It has been difficult to resolve this dispute, not least because of disagreement over how Jerusalem, a holy site in both Judaism and Islam (and for Christians also), should be governed.
• Ongoing conflict over Israeli settlement expansion, the blockade of Palestinian workers and trade, access to water in the River Jordan and the Golan Heights in Syria, have continued to sustain these tensions.

Question 184

What is the biggest political threat to the MENA region and how has it impacted the countries within the region?

Answer 184

• in 2016, five years after the Arab Spring, only one uprising against former rulers - in Tunisia - has resulted in positive change for the MENA region.
• In some cases, for example Egypt, the countries have become even more autocratic than before.
• With Libya, Yemen and Syria
  in a state of civil war or turning into failed states, perhaps because of inaction by superpowers,
  the biggest political threat to stability in the region has emerged as the centuries-old difference between sunni and shi’a Islam.
• Saudi Arabia has the largest number of sunni Muslims in the world, while Iran is the focal country of shias.

Question 185

How did the USA withdrawal from Iraq impact ethnic groups?

Answer 185

• One legacy of USA withdrawal from Iraq was the marginalisation of Sunni groups loyal to the regime of Saddam Hussein, and the consequent uniting of Sunni ethnic groups under the banner of ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, a term rejectea by the UN).
• These changes represent the breakdown of colonial boundaries and a reorganisation of the Middle East according to cultural association rather than nation state.

Question 186

What influence does the USA have over oil prices in the middle east?

Answer 186

• In 2015 economic sanctions against Iran, imposed by the USA, were lifted as a result of improved diplomatic relations.
• Iran’s ability to export gas and oil may lower the oil price and introduce competition for Saudi Arabia and the rest ofthe Middle East.
• As Saudi Arabia seeks to contest the USA’s in uence over oil prices, the web of political alliances across the region seems set to become even more complex.

Question 187

What did US political scientist Samuel Huntington suggest in his book in 1993 about the next major conflict?

Answer 187

• In 1993 the US political scientist Samuel Huntington published his book The Clash of Civilisations, in which he suggested that the next major conflict would be between contrasting cultures (implying Islam) rather than between countries.
• His controversial theory gained support after the attacks by Al-Qaeda on the USA in September 2001, and the retaliatory military action by the USA in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• The idea has also attracted considerable criticism, not least by Edward Said,
  a leading post-colonial thinker famous for his book Orientalism (1978).
• Said challenged Huntington’s characterisation of the relationship between the West and the Middle East, pointing out the mutual dependency of their societies and rejecting the assumption that the West was superior or different to the Arab World.

Question 188

Why is the middle east likely to be a geopolitically unstable region for decades to come?

Answer 188

• Whichever perspective is supported, the tensions in the Middle East are a real challenge for the superpowers and emerging powers.
• Much of the current conflict and post-colonial fallout has arisen out of the historical and current actions of past and present superpowers, particularly the USA, France and the UK.
• In many ways, with the fastest-growing population in the world, difficult climates (semi-arid and arid), food and water supply issues and finite oil resources, this world region seems likely to be the focal point of geopolitical instability for decades to come.

Question 189

How has the global shift impacted European countries and the USA?

Answer 189

• The global shift in manufacturing has left some European countries and the USA in a post­ industrial economic stage, with the majority of jobs in the tertiary (services) and quaternary (research and development knowledge and information) sectors.
• This restructuring has created a series of challenges and opportunities for the existing superpowers.
• The USA and the EU face four broad future economic challenges: Debt, Unemployment, Economic restructuring, Social costs.

Question 190

How can debt cause problems for existing superpowers such as the UK and how can it be overcome?

Answer 190

• The global recession (from 2008) created higher public debt in rich countries.
• In the UK a significant budget deficit is predicted to increase the national debt by US$1 billion a week
  by 2018; in 2015-16 the UK national debt was expected to be over £1.5 trillion in total.
• In some countries debt increases the need to raise taxes to pay debt interest, and this can slow an economy even further.
• The alternative is to introduce austerity measures, spending less and lowering costs such as wages, but this can also slow economic growth.
• So countries are faced with a difficult balancing act.
• Other countries believe that they are economically strong enough to allow economic processes to continue, so that the debt burden gradually decreases over time.
• A geopolitical risk is that these countries begin to rely on capital investment from emerging superpowers, which may continue to grow economically during at least part of a recession, increasing their political and economic power.

Question 191

Why do some superpowers have problems with unemployment?

Answer 191

• Increased competition, with more efficient and creative manufacturers in emerging or developing countries, has led to a decline and readjustment of major Western TNCs.
• One of the highest-profile US companies to collapse was General Motors, headquartered in Detroit.
• Its business model was too rigid and depended entirely on an in-house supply chain, rather than outsourcing.
• With European TNCs increasingly owned by larger conglomerates from emerging countries, such as Tata, secondary-sector workers in Europe depend on decisions made abroad.
• This makes the workforce vulnerable to changing commodity prices and consumer spending patterns in large Asian markets with high populations.
• The 2008 recession caused
  the unemployment rate to rise from 5 to 10 per cent, and although this has recovered in many developed countries, some groups - such as factory workers and African-Americans in the USA - remain disadvantaged.
• For example, in 2016 Detroit had an unemployment rate of 10 per cent.

Question 192

What impact does economic restructuring from secondary to tertiary + quaternary have on developed countries such as the UK?

Answer 192

• The EU and the USA are being forced to shift their economies away from the secondary sector (manufacturing) towards the tertiary and quaternary sectors.
• A UK government report on the labour market in 2014 concluded that the country was ranked 19th out of 30 OECD countries for low skills (Key Stage 3), 24th for intermediate (GCSEs and A levels) and 11th for high skill (tertiary), concluding that the country was falling behind in developing a skilled workforce, with other countries investing in skills more effectively.
• The global shift in manufacturing creates challenges for disadvantaged communities in developed countries with lower skill levels, who are not able to fully participate in the tertiary/quaternary job market, regardless of any equal opportunities policies or legislation.
• Some suggest that the decline of UK trade unions has reduced the voice of many groups and communities, making it more difficult for those affected to participate in making positive changes.

Question 193

What social costs can superpowers face from high unemployment rates?

Answer 193

• The consequences of unemployment in disadvantaged communities have been the deterioration of employment networks and a decaying living environment, with fewer maintained public spaces with parks and recreational areas.
• It has been suggested that this reduces the gross motor development of children and limits the development of the social skills they need to perform well in a services and knowledge economy.
• Others suggest that there is a lack of compassion for unemployed families from middle-income groups in the UK, as highlighted by Owen Jones in his 2011 book Chavs: The Demonization of the Working Class, which reminds us that inequality still exists in the historical superpower countries.

Question 194

What does the Kondratiev cycle suggest about the next wave of economic growth?

Answer 194

• The global economy has a long-term cycle, and the Kondratiev Cycle suggests that the next wave of economic growth will focus on investment in green technology, biotechnology and nano-technology.
• If UK and US universities, and large and small companies, continue to invest in scientific research, generate patents, and control global trade of these products, then power
  and world status will be renewed in the West.
• The 50-year cycle of ‘boom and bust’ will change economic fortunes from the current recession into economic growth, and the four broad challenges may fade away.
• However, another possible future is that the EU and USA may be forced to rely on emerging powers to finance, and provide the resources for, the innovation projects, and therefore a multi-modal world will exist with other players such as the UAE, India and China. In addition, the relatively open nature of countries like Chile and Mexico may mean that they start to attract foreign direct investment from TNCs looking for new locations for global operations and headquarters.

Question 195

Other than the Kondratiev cycle what other possible theories are there for future economic growth?

Answer 195

• Another possible future is that the EU and USA may be forced to rely on emerging powers to finance, and provide the resources for, the innovation projects, and therefore a multi-modal world will exist with other players such as the UAE, India and China.
• In addition, the relatively open nature of countries like Chile and Mexico may mean that they start to attract foreign direct investment from TNCs looking for new locations for global operations and headquarters.

Question 196

Why has global defence spending decreased in European countries?

Answer 196

• For many European countries, maintaining a policy of austerity while continuing to expand military power is a difficult and controversial policy decision.
• Difficult military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq have dented confidence in the effectiveness of traditional Western military power and strategies.
• The cost of military technology is extremely high, because it is often designed in
  a bespoke way for each country and involves the latest technologies.
• Overall, global defence spending is increasing, with the largest increases, proportionally, by China and India, with spending falling in Europe, the USA remains the biggest military spender overall.

Question 197

How is investment in the Navy important and how is it used by the UK?

Answer 197

• Aircraft carriers are seen as vital for projecting power, but are increasingly vulnerable to land-based missile technology.
• While the cost of defence is theoretically higher than the cost of attack, new laser-based technology is vital for lowering costs significantly.
• The UK government has reduced its aircraft carrier capability to two ships with launch dates in 2014 and 2017, but then a period of extensive fitting of military equipment will take place at a total cost of about £6 billion, including the purchase of appropriate aircraft.

Question 198

Why are there conflicting opinions over investment in nuclear deterrents in the UK?

Answer 198

• This is a topic of political and cultural debate.
• In 2015 the UK’s Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn rejected the need for air strikes against targets in Syria, and the need to maintain and deploy an expensive replacement for the UK’s nuclear deterrent (Trident, delivered by submarine).
• The large, arguably unnecessary, expense is one aspect of the argument, since nuclear weapons were never deployed during the Cold War.
• But others argue that the deterrent worked and was therefore worth the investment, and that many other countries of the world, including emerging superpowers, have a nuclear capability.
• In July 2016 80 per cent of UK MPs voted to renew the Trident weapons system.

Question 199

Why are NATO countries spending more money on military air power?

Answer 199

• Although fighter jets are being replaced, the introduction of autonomous drones is cheaper in the long term, more agile and able to destroy precise targets in hostile environments.
• Larger bombers have to be built in a way that can be upgraded as new technology is developed, rather than replaced, and this is difficult to anticipate.
• With a perceived increased threat from Russia and Chinese military modernisation, NATO countries are spending more money on military air power.

Question 200

Why is there increased investment in artificial intelligence for the military?

Answer 200

• The necessity and cost of human spies now contrasts with artificial intelligence, satellite technology and computer programming.
• There is now a strong possibility of cyber attack because of globalised computer networks and so there is debate about the kind of personnel needed by intelligence services and the need for their cooperation around the world.
• The theft of intelligence material by Edward Snowden in 2013 a ected public confidence in the ability of the West’s intelligence services to keep material secure, as well as jeopardising undercover UK M16 agents.
• However, an independent report commissioned by the UK government strongly justified the case for intelligence to counter terrorism and criminal threats.

Question 201

How have emerging countries and superpowers shown symbols of global power through investment in space programmes?

Answer 201

• One of the most notable symbols of global power has been the Russian and US space programmes.
• Russia was the first country to put a man into space (in 1961), while the USA was the first to land a human on the moon (in 1969).
• The USA did not replace the Space Shuttle programme in 2011, after 30 years of operation, and reduced funding for NASA (although funding in 2016 was still US$19.3 billion).
• Instead, the USA is developing a new launch rocket and favours the commercialisation of space travel.
• The first commercial spacecraft docked with the International Space Station in 2012.
• NASA plans to send manned missions to Mars at some point after 2030, but commercial operators such as Mars One may get there first.
• India and China have their own space race today, with India launching its first low-cost spacecraft (US$74 million) to Mars in 2014.
• Although a clear statement of its ambitions as an emerging superpower, this action, together with the US$1.2 billion allocated for its space programmes, has been questioned by some, as the country still has many poor people and it continues to receive economic aid from other countries.

Question 202

How has economic power shifted over time?

Answer 202

• There are many ways to define power, such as cultural, political and economic.
• many would consider economic to be the main form of power.
• This measure of power shows that there has been a shift from Europe to the USA and, most recently, to China.
• Recent GDP data supports this idea, with China’s economy now larger than that of the USA.

Question 203

What did The economist suggest in 2015 when analysing superpower status and GDP?

Answer 203

• The Economist suggested that GDP data on its own does not tell the whole story:
  • In 1931, the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in New York was seen as a symbol of cultural confidence by the USA during the Great Depression. Today it is owned by a Chinese company but still run by a US company, Hilton, which owns ‘intellectual-property’ around the world.
  • The USA’s superpower capacity continues in the form of huge aircraft carriers, the power of e-commerce and social media and the global popularity of Hollywood stars.
  • The USA replaced the UK as the leading global superpower only ten years after the Second World War. The USA today has more power than the UK ever had, while China is still less powerful than the USA at its peak.
  • Global networks and organisations support the status quo, discouraging change.

Question 204

What did the US National Intelligence Council report in their global trends review from 2004?

Answer 204

• Every four years, after a presidential election, the US National Intelligence Council produces a global trends review.
• In 2004 it predicted that the USA would continue to dominate globally, but by 2008 the report predicted that China, India and Brazil would grow at the expense of the USA and the EU, with increased fragmentation of power.
• In 2012 the report focused on four possible global scenarios.
• What is clear is that the future is unlikely to be simply unipolar or bipolar.
• The most likely future is an emerging multipolar world where players on all levels (supranational organisations, IGOs, countries, individuals) must work together to tackle the global challenges of climate change, trade and access to resources.

Question 205

What are the ‘Megatrends’ from the USA’s global trends review 2012?

Answer 205

• Individual empowerment following poverty reduction, a move to urban areas, and consequent increased demand for food, water and energy.
• Multipolar world governed by networks so tackling problems in one country creates supply and demand consequences for others.
• an ageing population in some countries that limits economic growth.

Question 206

What are the ‘Gamechangers’ from the USA’s global trends review 2012?

Answer 206

• Increasing uncertainty about the resilience of the global economy.
• Internal and international governance or conflict has potential to spill over into regional conflicts (for example, the Middle East and South Asia).
• An important role for the USA in the increased development of technology.

Question 207

What are the ‘Potential worlds’ (scenarios) from the USA’s global trends review 2012?

Answer 207

Worst case:
- The USA and Europe start to protect their own economies and withdraw from free-trade arrangements; globalisation stalls, reducing the flow of goods, people and money around the world.
Best case:
- China and the USA collaborate, leading to global cooperation on global challenges, with enough food, water and energy for everyone while limiting the effects of climate change, resource shortages and associated conflicts.
Inequalities explored:
- Some inequalities between and within countries remain, so organisations like the EU fail to be effective; political and religious extremists start to dominate and lack of clear governance causes some states to fail.
Restructure:
- Non-government players take the lead in solving problems, as increasing numbers of middle-income groups reject the authoritarian and manipulative structures introduced by the global power elite and take advantage of the internet to share values and ideas, challenging human injustice and promoting women’s rights.