Managing farming to reduce biodiversity loss

Question 1

Global expansion of agriculture

Answer 1

• Oil palm 56% expansion from 1999 - 2008
• Soya bean 33%
• Cocoa bean 32%
• Bamboo 26%

Question 2

1980-2012

Answer 2

154 Mha converted, 77 x Wales

Question 3

Global imbalance in deforestation

Answer 3

mainly in southern hemisphere, in tropical regions

Question 4

Massive loss of biodiversity

Answer 4

Threats to IUCN status of species in the tropics are higher than elsewhere

Question 5

Cultivated lands are vastly simplified systems

Answer 5

And human population is rapidly expanding (will reach 11 billion by 2100)

Question 6

1.5 billion overweight and obese people

Answer 6

More meat consumption per capita as population increases

Question 7

Usable protein per acre of farmland

Answer 7

18x more protein per hectare from soy than from beef

Question 8

More biofuel use boosts agriculture

Answer 8

More US corn grown for biofuel than for animal feed in 2010

Question 9

In the next 40 years agricultural production could grow by

Answer 9

60-100%

Question 10

Agriculture is key driver of extinction crisis

Answer 10

Growing demand for food and biofuels

Future of global biodiversity in hands of agricultural policymakers

Question 11

How best to manage agriculture expansion to minimize biodiversity loss?

Answer 11

(1) “Land-sharing” or “land-sparing” farming

(2) Expand in low biodiversity areas

Question 12

Land-sharing

Answer 12

Farm at lower intensity
Organic farming
Set-aside strips
Hedgerows
Woodlots / fragments
Biodiversity protected within agricultural matrix

Question 13

land-sparing

Answer 13

Farm at high intensity
‘Industrial’ farming
Use less land to meet demand
Biodiversity protected within remaining natural forest

Question 14

Which strategy (sharing or sparing) is best for species?

Answer 14

plot a density-yield curve for total abundance of each species across landscapes

A convex relationship between yield of food and species abundance means land-sparing is best.
A concave relationship means land-sharing is best.

Question 15

Sharing or sparing for oil palm?

Answer 15

Trees are all “losers”, but land-sparing is best, especially for species with small ranges.

But previous work has ignored potential role of surrounding landscapes

• Species could disperse into test landscapes from forest elsewhere
• Species could use resources from outside test landscape

Question 16

Land-sparing is best for biodiversity
More species have higher abundance
Higher landscape-level species richness

Answer 16

Land-sparing is increasingly better further from contiguous forest edge

Question 17

Land-sparing also best for carbon

Answer 17

Need to intensify existing tropical farmland

Question 18

Many areas have already been degraded across the tropics
Burned multiple times
Erosion
Converted to farmland

Answer 18

Imperata grasslands in SE Asia

What if Imperata is the focus of new farmland?

Question 19

Can meet 2020 oil palm demand without forest loss if focus on degraded lands

Answer 19

Predictions from coarse-grain species layers

Can overlook important habitat for conservation at smaller scales

Question 20

Two habitats dominate in the Llanos:
Anthropogenic / semi-natural grassland
Natural forest patches

Answer 20

Can oil palm develop at minimal cost to biodiversity in either of these two habitats?

Question 21

Effect of oil palm on biodiversity

Answer 21

1) Species richness differs
2) Species composition differs
3) Forest species decline

Question 22

Forest patches have most species
Oil palm more species rich than pasture
Forest species have higher occurrence in oil palm than in pasture
Minimal biodiversity impacts of converting intensive Llanos pasture to oil palm
But vital to preserve forest patches

Answer 22

How can we persuade the oil palm industry to direct development to such areas?
Sustainability (‘green’) labelling

Question 23

Sustainability labelling

Answer 23

Media and consumer pressure
Greenpeace vs
400 global retailers ($2.8 trillion) cut all deforestation from supply chains by 2020

Question 24

Cost of removing deforestation?

Answer 24

Simulate where to put new oil palm to avoid deforestation:
Meet 2025 production
Calculate rent of current land use
Predict oil palm rent
Choose most profitable cells

Question 25

Additional Price of a Mars?

Answer 25

Deforestation-free palm oil increases cost of production by $30 t-1
Translates into a Mars price increase of: £0.0001p

Demand deforestation-free products!!!
Caveat: not enough forest-free areas to meet demand beyond 2025

Question 26

Expansion of tropical farmland is the biggest driver of global extinction crisis
Growing demand means production may double by 2050
Land sharing vs land sparing paradigm
Sparing best, but need adequate safeguards

Answer 26

Degraded (non-forest) areas can be used
Sustainability to access western markets
Effective land zoning to stop deforestation

Question 27

Use higher yielding varieties

Answer 27

Sime Darby’s “super palms” variety increases yields from 4&raquo_space; 10 tCPO ha-1
Genome sequencing opens way for producing pest and drought resistance
Big potential for saving forest with yield increases…

Question 28

The danger of yield increases

Answer 28

Markets are globally interconnected
Buyers can substitute one crop for another
53% oil palm yield increase > price falls 4.3% Villoria et al. 2013 Am J Agri Econ
Transfer food production from temperate to tropics&raquo_space; more deforestation
Governments must zone areas for high-yielding crops coupled with forest estates
Without this safeguard, land sparing could be in the temperate zone