Lecture 2: Assessment Flashcards

1
Q

what did Brown, Shell & Cole, 2015 say about why we do assesments

A

Forensic psychologists are routinely asked to address the following:
To understand why the person committed the offence
The nature, level and management of risk the offender presents with
The treatment needs of the person
The persons treatability and treatment readiness

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2
Q

why do we need To understand why the person committed the offence

A

Helps understand the solutions- eg if happens because drunk, don’t let them drink
Understand ways of treating them, help not reoffend

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3
Q

why do we need To understand o The nature, level and management of risk the offender presents with

A

Amount and type of risk
Risk to everyone or risk to everyone targets in past
Manage and minimizing risk
Eg Not letting live near kids

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4
Q

why do we need To understand o The treatment needs of the person

A

Diff treatment plans for people with diff learning needs- how cope with treatments

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5
Q

why do we need To understand o The persons treatability and treatment readiness

A

Assess whether the person can actually be treated and whether they are ready
Insight into own behavior that they need to be treated

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6
Q

what are risk assessments

A

Risk assessment can be defined as the systematic collection of information to determine the degree to which harm (to self and others) is likely, at some future point in time. (Douglas & Skeem, 2005; RMA, 2015)

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7
Q

what is risk management

A

Risk management is the implementation of a set of systems that minimise the risks that exist

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8
Q

what are the types of risk management

A

risk avoidance
risk reduction
risk retention
risk transfer

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9
Q

what is risk avoidance

A

Avoiding any risk at all of the person reoffending

Eg death penalty or keeping encarceratd for life

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10
Q

what is risk reduction

A

Reduce with treatment

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11
Q

what is risk retention

A

Keep level of risk

Do once the risk is lowered

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12
Q

what is risk transfer

A

Risk 20% eg committing self harm- swap them to another prison—transfers risk to someone else

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13
Q

what are the differing definitions of risks

A
Statistical likelihood of something happening  probability 
Done in many walks of life
‘What is the chance that …..’
Risk factor and protective factors 
Formulation = what that risk is and why
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14
Q

what should you do once you have idnentified a risk

A

work out ways of managing them

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15
Q

what is dangerousness

A

The seriousness of the consequences of the event occurring
Which offenders are most dangerous
Which conditions make an offender most dangerous

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16
Q

what is a risk

A

The statistical likelihood of an event occurring
oWhich offenders are most likely to recidivate
oWhat conditions increase the chances of recividism

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17
Q

whats the distinction between a risk and dangerousness

A

oPredictive factors of dangerousness
oThe factors that caused someone to be dangerous
Confusion between cause and risk factor – eg being poor a risk factor for crime but not a cause lots of thing saround it
When deviate from theory to practicality
Cause helps us understand what we can do to hel

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18
Q

what factors do you have to take into account when considering how dynamic risks are

A

Assessment is more accurate in short term not the long term
Risk factors can change- not stable
•Eg throughout age range of person
•Eg socialeconomic status
oChanges in response to conditions and persons life

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19
Q

what are the professional ethics involved in assessments

A

oProtect the general public; prison or institutional staff; inmates; themselves
oForensic psychologists should always be professionally qualified; always collect data to extend the knowledge in the field; share all findings widely
If giving wrong treatment or suggestions can be damaging
Should be always looking for more knowledge and sharing findings widely
oBe aware of the political context’s influence
If a risk factor but not their fault (eg socialeconomic status) is it ethical to keep them in prison

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20
Q

what must forensic psychologists be aware of when conducting assessments

A

o The reliability and validity of their chosen tools
o The statistical base rate and its effect
o Their own biases (feminist psychology
o Power imbalance
o Potential deception/manipulation by an offender
o The emotional impact of the work

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21
Q

how do forensic psychs own biases affect assessments

A

Highlughts how almost every researcher has a bias and this affects the questios that they ask
Eg what crimes they think are the worst

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22
Q

how does power imbalance affect assessments

A

People feel obliged to do things as know psychologists giving parole to people

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23
Q

how does o Potential deception/manipulation by an offender affect assessments and who is most likely to do ths

A

Especially psychopaths

‘15% of people training to become a forensic psychologist, end up in a relationship with the offender’

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24
Q

what should psychological assessments include

A
  • Involve multiple (repeated) methods
  • Consider base rates
  • Use tailored assessments
  • Use direct strategies
  • Use transparent procedures
  • Use evidence to make decisions
  • Not be fixed
    Avoid the confirmation
    bias
  • Include costs and benefits
  • Have sought alternative opinions
  • Be monitored for accuracy
  • Communicated clearly
  • Defendable
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25
Q

why should psychological assessments -Involve multiple (repeated) methods

A

o To ensure they are accurate

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26
Q

why should psychological assessments - Consider base rates

A

o Base rate affects how you interpret risk factors

o Different crimes have diff base rates

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27
Q

why should psychological assessments - Use tailored assessments

A

o Every offender gets a unique assessment- cant afford

o Make generic things individualised

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28
Q

why should psychological assessments be transparent procedures

A

o Stating the truth, being honest about the limitations of the HCR

29
Q

why should psychological assessments be not fixed

A

o Dynamic and have lots of feeding in opinions

30
Q

why should psychological assessments avoid confirmation bias

A

o Disconfirm hypothoses

o Look for opposite- eg look if always drunk when commit a crime, look for the time when not drunk

31
Q

why should psychological assessments - Include costs and benefits

A

o State whether better to give treatment

32
Q

what are the key principles of how we assess

A
  • Specify the risks
  • Specify the possible outcomes
  • Assess the likelihood of these outcomes
  • Assess the severity of these outcomes
33
Q

what is the research methods process

A
  • Theoretical basis
    o Why committed this crime
  • Gather data and analyse to support or refuse original hypo
  • Reformulate hypo and check it is correct
  • Made from extra data
  • Sometimes called ‘cambridge model’- outcome/ predictor variables and build regression around it to predict behaviour to explain criminality
34
Q

define a psychological formulation

A

A conceptual model representing an offenders various difficulties, the hypothesized underlying mechanisms and their interrelationships’.

35
Q

what does a psychological formulation aim to do

A
  • Psychological formulation also aims to suggest what individual and systemic factors continue to maintain a person’s difficulties/offending behaviour
36
Q

name some historical factors on the HCR 20

A

o Family background and family functioning*
o Social care history
o Trauma/victimization history
o Developmental history*
o Treatment history
o History of hospital admissions and time spent in prison
o Offending history
o Legal restrictions and response to such restrictions and adherence to them
o Safeguarding issues
o Education and employment
o Psychosexual background
o Relationship (romantic and peers) history

37
Q

name some dispositional factors on the HCR 20

A

o Personality*
o Attitudes towards treatment and motivation
o The person’s goals aspirations and strengths and their perceived difficulties
o Neurocognitive abilities and difficulties
o Attitudes to offending
o Attachment style

38
Q

name some clinical variables on the HCR 20

A

o Capacity to consent
o Mental health & substance misuse history *
o Current mental state (including assessment of self-harm/suicide)
o Medication and attitude towards taking medication

39
Q

name the personality disorders of the HCR 20

A

o Psychopathy*
o Current offence analysis
o Stable characteristics so put separate to clinical variables

40
Q

what are some protective factors on the HCR 20

A
  • Often overlooked when assessed
  • Personal resources
    o Traits person has that makes them less likely to commit a crime
    o e.g. Amenable, intelligent, sense of humour
  • Family supports
    o nature and degree of support; name the person(s)
    o name this support is supported by this person
  • Social supports
    o e.g. Close and confiding relationship; employment
  • Calming Influences/Negotiation
    o e.g. Record anything that may help to calm the person in difficult situations
  • Evidence of Progress – In or out of treatment
    o e.g. Maintained own home; actively engaged in treatment
41
Q

what are the 4 types of assessment according to Gannon et al., 2008)

A

clinical (1st gen )
- Actuarial (2nd generation)
Structured Clinical Risk Assessments (3rd generation
- Dynamic, Clinical, Actuarial and Treatment (4th generation)

42
Q

what is the 1st gen assessment –> describe it

A
  • Clinical (1st generation)
    o Clinical opinion, gut feeling
    o Clinical interviews
    o Psychodynamic/ humanistic approach
    o Trained clinician looks at the offenders notes, speaks to them , others etc – should be an expert interviewer that is professionally trained and has a valid conclusion
  • Derives from the tradition of one-to-one casework in medical, social and probation contexts and refers to the practitioners use of experience, interviewing skills, observation and professional judgement to arrive at an assessment (Robinson 2003)
43
Q

what are the pros of 1st gen assessment clinical)

A

o Assessor can explore many different aspects of the client’s situation
o Can reflect unique circumstances and case
o specific influences
o PRO- tailored, look at any aspect you want about individual

44
Q

what are the cons of 1st gen assessment

A

o Subject to much personal bias
 If focus on one issue may ignore others
 Confirmatuion bias hard to avoid
o Overlook/over emphasise information
o Lack of explicitness of
o process/accountability
o Poor ecological validity
 Why committed a crime simply by asking them
o Limited human information processing
 Unable to process info and do risk assessment at the same time
o Feedback loop- never find out if right or wrong as all own work
o Not transparent one on one , behind closed doors, questions down to interviewer
o LIDS et al  those people considered to be high risk reoffended in 53% of cases, VS 36% in low risk category  20% accuracy??, another study said 39% high risk and 26% low risk
 Proportional? Suggests clinical interview some level of accuracy
 Some good rate- some chance  individual variability
 Only good if have a good assessor

45
Q

what did lids et al say about 1st gn assessments

A

LIDS et al  those people considered to be high risk reoffended in 53% of cases, VS 36% in low risk category  20% accuracy??, another study said 39% high risk and 26% low risk
Proportional? Suggests clinical interview some level of accuracy
Some good rate- some chance  individual variability
Only good if have a good assessor

46
Q

describe 2nd gen assessments

A

Actuarial Risk Assessment (2nd generation)
- More standardised that everyone can use
- Mathematical tool – certain risk factors more important than others, gives percentage risk
- Widely used in forensic psychology
- Derived from methods used in the insurance industry and is based upon statistical calculations of probability. Assessment is based upon a set of identified factors or items, each of which has been empirically demonstrated to correlate with reconviction
- Example of an actuarial tool is the OGRS (Offender Group Reconviction Scale)
- Using logistic regression, Gretenkord (2000) identified four predictors of recidivism in mentally disordered offenders:
o Personality disorder
o Violent pre-offence
o Physical aggression while in prison at least twice
o Age at time of discharge

47
Q

what are the 4 predictors of recidivism in mentally dirodered offenders according to 2md gen assessment and Gretenkord (2000)

A

o Personality disorder
o Violent pre-offence
o Physical aggression while in prison at least twice
o Age at time of discharge

48
Q

what are the advantages of 2nd gen assessments

A

o Reliance on clearly articulated risk factors or indicators which are grounded in empirical data.
o Offers high levels of predictive validity or accuracy.
o Clear – based on evidence an dlare samples

49
Q

what are the disadvantages of 2nd gen assessments

A

o Consists of static predictors only
 Doesn’t take into account things that will chage
o They are based on and designed for use with groups or populations of offenders
 Limited to particular group they are looking at
 Motivational diffeences
 Time locked??? Ask
o Not good at predicting rare events
 Crime in itself rare not useful for very rare events such as terrorism
o Different measures do not correlate with each other
 Eg OGRS and other measures- weird if supposed to predicting same thing
 Difference between theory and practicality  theory not as importandt for risk assessment
o Based on people being caught – eg personality disorders chart

50
Q

what generation of assessment is the HCR 20

A

3rd generation

51
Q

describe the 3rd gen assessment

A
  • Eg HCR -20
  • Structured clinical risk assessments refer to guidelines or checklists intended to help users make judgements about risk of an individual (SPJ approach)
    o Advantage of clinical interview (one on one), evaluate info, structured so can avoid biases (questions, prompts, what order)
    o Based upon risk factors that have been shown to predict violence
  • These assessments are based on items which have been shown to be predictive of reconviction (actuarial), but are also reliant on the practitioners ability to elicit the relevant information through interviewing the offender, and where appropriate consultation with other persons and/or sources (clinical)
  • Example = OASys (Offender Assessment System), HCR-20, VRAG; PCL-R
52
Q

what are the advantages of the 3rd gen assessment

A

o Recognises that risk assessment is a dynamic and continuous process
o Sensitive to change as a result of treatment and management
o Uses pros of both previous generations

53
Q

what are the disadvantages of the 3rd gen assessment

A

oCompletion fatigue among users may compromise the quality of assessments
Takes a long tuime to complete
Offender and assessor- long and boring  devalues the data collected
oSome have expressed concern about the potential de-skilling and or de- professionalism as a result of the increasing standardisation of assessment practice
Interview pro is that clinicians know what to tap into  structured manual so people without degree think its standardised, but should think flexibly

54
Q

describe the 4th generation assessments

A

Dynamic, Clinical, Actuarial and Treatment (4th generation)

  • Incorporates insight of offender- as offender needs to know that they need to change- rediness
  • Combining assessment with readiness to engage in treatment. Allows for calculation pre and post treatment.
  • Results of treatment inform level of post treatment risk
  • Incorporates the Stages of Change Model (Prochaska, DiClemente & Norcross, 1992)
  • Assessing risk: Evaluating outcomes as probabilities, based on samples, and on clinical experience
  • Disadvantage very long to do
55
Q

what is the disadvantage of the 4th gen assessment

A
  • Disadvantage very long to do
56
Q

name some specialist assessment techniques

A

polygraph

penile plethysmograph (ppg)

EEG- p3000ERP

57
Q

Describe the EEG- p3000ERP

A

o Responds after a stimuli presented
o Often to something odd or unusual
o Used to show offenders/ suspects info about offence- if something don’t know the response is larger, if don’t know the response lower shows whether people are lying / know more or less than they say they do

58
Q

describe the polygraph

A

o Used in the US- not used in the UKk
o ‘lie detector’ skin conductor response for yes no answers
o Easy to beat- as raise baseline

59
Q

describe the PPG

A
-	Penile plethysmograph (PPG)
o	Phallometry (Gannon et al., 2008)
o	Measures blood flow to penis??
o	Use to establish whether a peadophile, attracted to sexual images etc 
o	Female version invasive
60
Q

what considerations should be adhered to when using risk assessments

A
o	Type of method use
o	Assessment of dangerousness or risk
o	Who is the risk/danger to?
o	Context of the risk
o	Timescale of the risk
o	Personal context
o	Benefits of the risk
o	Acceptable levels of risk
61
Q

what factors affect the accuracy of risk assessments

A
recidivism 
accuracy of data 
accuracy of predictions 
biases 
acceptability of risks 
risk assessment
62
Q

what type of offenders are most likely to offend

A
  • High-risk offenders are more likely to reoffend than low-risk offenders
    o As categorised by VRAG (Harris et al., 1993)
    o As categorised by HCR-20
63
Q

what did Grenight et al., 2000 say about recidivism rates using risk assessments

A
  • Violent recidivism can be explained to a level of 93% with every variable accounted for (Grenight et al., 2000)
    o Massive- very accurate at predicting who will be violent in future
    o Structured assessments most accurate
    o But tyring to sell tools they were crateing
64
Q

what did (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2009) say about recidivism

A

structured assessments are most effective (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2009)

65
Q

what did Gretenkord, 2000 say about the types of recidivism

A

o 44% reoffended but only 13% for a similar violent offence (Gretenkord, 2000

66
Q

what did Firestone et al., 1998 say about types of recidivism

A

o 50% reoffended after 5 years but only 16% with a similar sexual crime (Firestone et al., 1998)
o 50% reoffended after 10 years but only 20% for a similar sexual offence
- Reconviction data likely to be an underestimate (Firestone et al., 1998)

67
Q

what are the weaknesses of assessing recidivism

A
  • Reoffending not typically the same crime
  • Also base upon those who are convicted- have to be found
  • Some people look at at risk behaviours- eg sex offenders hanging around schools, haven’t offended again but doing behaviours leding up to it
68
Q

what did firestone et al 1998 say about the accuracy of predicting recidivism

A

-Prediction of recidivism is quite poor (Firestone et al., 1998)
-Specificity of offence is critical
-Prediction from PCL-R & VRAG is accurate for violent not sexual recidivism (Rice & Harris, 1997)
-Prediction of recidivism is quite poor (Firestone et al., 1998)
oSpecificity of offence is critical
oDesigned for a specific purpose- so not good at predicting other types of offences, eg sexual offences wont use these
oPCL-R not that good at predicting violence, better for psychopathic behaviour

69
Q

what are the 2 types of accuracy error in predicting recidivism

A

-2 types of error – accuracy not a signle construct
oWhat we consider in terms of measuring accurace – 2 outcomes(will/ wont reoffend)
4 poss soloutions, correct or wrong (hit/miss/false alarm/ correct rejection