Foresight Flashcards
Scenario Planning
Identify high-impact, high-uncertainty factors and come up with futures for each scenario
Game theory
Anticipate the actions of competitors and act accordingly in response - some degree of collusion may be beneficial
Think tank
Group of experts together to speculate - absence of authority and group aspect encourages a consensus view
Delphi Technique
Experts and interviewed and questioned on their thoughts separately, they do not formally meet
Brainstorming
People come together from all aspects of the organisation to answer an initial single question
Derived demand
Forecast one thing by figuring out what the demand is likely to be for another
Visioning
Management develop a realistic and attractive mental image for the future and devise ways to reach this future ideal
Morphological analysis
Systematically investigate all the component parts of large scale problems. Make use of a matrix to identify new, reasonable combinations of these components that could result in new plausible outcomes
Relevance trees
Start with a clear goal and work back through the trends and events on which it depends on determine what needs to change or be developed for it to be achieved
Issues analysis
Potentially significant issues should be analysed in terms of profitability and impact (risk)
Opportunity mapping
Identify gaps in the current environment in order to reveal new business opportunities
Cross impact analysis
Record events on a matrix and at each matrix intersection analyse how the event in the row could effect the likelihood of occurrence of the event in the column
