Week 10 Flashcards

1
Q

Home bias is a concentrated fundamental risk exposure

why can it be diversified?

A

to the extent that risk premiums are similar in local and global markets, it may be possible to reduce exposure to local risks without sacrificing expected return.

good way of reducing reliance on Australian markets without necessarily sacrificing expected returns.

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2
Q

What is different about global investing

A

•More dimensions to understand and manage

–Currency

–More securities, more countries, more managers

–More permutations: global / regional / industry / matrix

  • Information gaps (but the world IS getting smaller)
  • Access is often more limited
  • Higher costs, tax differences, etc

Operational

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3
Q

What is different about global investing

A

•More dimensions to understand and manage

–Currency

–More securities, more countries, more managers

–More permutations: global / regional / industry / matrix

  • Information gaps (but the world IS getting smaller)
  • Access is often more limited
  • Higher costs, tax differences, etc

Operational

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4
Q

Decision to invest globally

home bias

A

Investors are still investing heavily in their home country or assets they believe they believe they have more info. Assets they believe they are experts at

Overweight of australian equity

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5
Q

Why investors avoid investing outside home countries?

portfolio return net of fee and tax

A

pay tax because foreign income in that foreign country and taxed again in ustralia if no bilateral tax agreement between two countries

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6
Q

Why investors avoid investing outside home countries?

costs and risks

A

incur higher cost; Imputation credits strong motivation to invest in AU

Political risk and country risk

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7
Q

Why investors avoid investing outside home countries?

understanding

A
  • have to understand in the equity market
  • different disclosure requirements of financial reporting, industry dynamics
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8
Q

With total reutrn you receive from a foreign asset, have two components:

A

one will be return in foreign currency. Another part of return will be exchange rate changes in forein currency and home currency.

We can hedge currency risk for some investors esp institutional investors

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9
Q

Tend not to invest in foreign market given benefits of

A

better frontier, the investors waive potential beneifts due to potential costs of investing in foreign markets

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10
Q

Listed property

local or global?

A

autralian investors when you invest ina autralian equity, you have impicit exposure to australian listed property already.

If you would like to have additional listed property exposure, you would want to global.

Global property market, have a chance to generate alpha

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11
Q

FI

Investing in AU or global

A

against investing in AU

Australian corporate bond market has very limtied issues in market. Liquidity is a big problem in small market

FI seucirites is much less liquid than securities in australian corporate bond market, extremely illiquid.

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12
Q

FI

Investing in AU or global

A

invest in high yield US or japan

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13
Q

FI

Investing in AU or global

A

Australian investors would like to invest in australian gov bond. Only Triple AAA rated gov bond in the world. Minimum credit risk and handsome expected return.

Australian investors holding FI is for cash flow.

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14
Q

Foreign income fixed securiires, do we hedge our exposure?

A

Why do we hold FI securities? Diversifying from australian equity exposure. Most will hedge currency risk in FI securities.

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15
Q

Inflation-linked securities in total portfolio

domestic:

A

Worried about australian inflation. Investors will try to invest in their own home country inflation linekd bonds.

Unless they think they can genreate alpha, they can invest in other countries inflation linked bond

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16
Q

Fundamental risk analysis of my fundamental risk: house in ACT,

A

Concentrated fundamental risk factor which is austrlalian economic development

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17
Q

Lots of australin investors have concentrated risk

so

A

in Australian economy

Diversify Australian economic risk and potential to improve risk return trade of of total portfolio

18
Q

when australia is outperforming,

A

hedge your foreign currency, you choose to hold everything A dollar. Willingly expose yourself to austrailian risk because you are outperforming

19
Q

In the case of A$ and Australian investors, we have a positive forward rate bias (or forward premium),

A

leads to negative returns from currency surprise.

20
Q

Fully hedged or fully unehdged will have significant impact on

A

performance Of managers

21
Q

Lots of investors, start from

A

50% or cloes to 50% hedging and assess the potential beefits and costs associated with this hedging decision and evaluate can it generate enough alpha to justify enough tracking error

22
Q

Hedging is trying to remove

A

the cs and we ened up with interest rate differential (can forecast with confidence) as a result of currency change

Try to remove excess voalitity, not trying to generate excess return

23
Q

When you removeforeign currency risk

A

expose yourself completely to australian economy risk

24
Q

impact of trade war on AU

A

limited

Largest trading partner for australia is

China Japan US

US austraila has always been running a deficit.

25
Q

Why intrest rate between australia and usd difference is going to reverse

A

If trade conflict between US between china continues. US market including australia stock market have dropped a lot in 4 weeks.

Financial market investors taking it as a negative. Negative impact on US economy and world economic development. Negative impact, will reduce interest rate. May reverse monetary policy to reduce interest rate in US market

26
Q

Negative correlation of CS and A portfolio

A

potentially provide diversification benefits for au investor

27
Q

Au investor decides to hedge all of the currency portfolio exposure

A

left with purely austrlalian economic risk. Higher total portfolio risk but higher ER.

28
Q

Total portfolio level, au investor leave foreign currency exposure unhedged, introduced foreign currency exposure int o a portfolio dominated by AU dollar denoomianted AU

Implication on investor’s total portfolio return

A

With unhedged, AU may be lower than total portfolio return, you introduce another risk. Lower ER

29
Q

Hedging decision depends on investors objectives

Older generations who have retired,

A

security is the top priority, will go to unhedge their foreign currency exposure. May suffer some of the outperformance of australian assets, they end up with lower total portfolio risk. Depends on their trade off.

30
Q

Hedging decision depends on investors objectives

If investor is younger,hold nearly 100% growth assets

A

ok with additioal risk of financial portfolio. Happy to bear additional risk. Have higher er of portfolio

31
Q

Currently we do observe a negative correlation between A$ currency surprise and zero-exposure portfolio

. If you want to minimize risk,

A

do not hedge.

32
Q

Currently we do observe a negative correlation between A$ currency surprise and zero-exposure portfolio

. In the case of Australian investors

A

we had negative return from cs, negative correlation, so it’s a trade-off. If the forward rate bias continues, if you want to maximize return, hedge.

33
Q

Currently we do observe a negative correlation between A$ currency surprise and zero-exposure portfolio ( ie world equity returns expressed in A$):

negative correlation implies

A

currency exposure as a diversifier, tend not to hedge

34
Q

Currently we do observe a

A

a negative correlation between A$ currency surprise and zero-exposure portfolio ( ie world equity returns expressed in A$):

WE up, A$ up, WE returns in A$ down; WE down, A$ down, WE returns in A$ up.

35
Q

•Cash flow implications

If hedged and currency falls

A

–If hedged and currency falls (i.e. gains on overseas currency) => gain on overseas assets - loss on hedge position

– Loss on hedge position needs to be settled in cash. While net value effect is zero, some have difficulty with cash payout.

36
Q

Implementation

costs of hedging

A

minor if managed properly

37
Q

Implementation

Equities and other assets

A

depends

38
Q

Implementation

Fixed income

A

standard deviation of fixed income portfolio is 2-4%, if not hedged, portfolio volatility will be dominated by currency fluctuations. So standard practice.

FI is usually hedgd. Most investors will hold FI until maturity. Until replaced by new issues

39
Q

A$ tends to be higher return

A

forward rate bias >1% pa

40
Q

A$ tends to be higher risk

A

equity correlation

41
Q

A$ based investor may perceive the following

A
  • Hedging => adds to both portfolio risk & return
  • Remaining unhedged => lower portfolio risk and return