Prognosis Flashcards
What are the two types of uncertainty?
Aleatory and epistemic
What does uncertainty arise from?
Probability
Ambiguity
Complexity
What is meant by aleatory?
To do with chance - no ability to predict outcome
What is meant by prognostic factors?
Affect the outcome of condition once you have it already
What is meant by risk factors?
Development of the disease- can raise the risk of healthy person getting the condition
What is meant by epistemic?
To do with knowledge- the ability to predict an outcome
What do clinicians base their choice of treatment on?
Risk without treatment
Vulnerability
Responsiveness
Patient utilities
What is meant by global measures of model fit?
How likely the model will give rise to data
What is meant by calibration?
How close predicted risks are to observed risks
What is meant by discrimination?
Measure of how well a model separates those who develop the outcome from those who do not
What is meant by reclassification?
Whether or not the new model sufficiently changes a patients risk to move them into a different category
Describe the will rogers phenomenon
When moving an element from one set to another set raises the average of both
What is aetiological heterogeneity?
Change in diagnostic procedure leads to change in treatment procedure
What is meant by the magnitude of treatment benefit?
Relates to baseline absolute risks
What is meant when outcome are valued by patient?
Ways up whether the treatment or prevention is more important
