9- Judgement Flashcards
(47 cards)
define judgement
the process through which people draw conclusions from the evidence they encounter
judgments require _
a frequency estimate
instead of good information, what do we rely on to make a judgement? What term describes this?
- rely on easily accessed information
- attribute substitution (make adecision about frequencies without using frequency as supporting evidence)
attribute substitutions often rely on info obtained through _?
heuristics
define heuristics
efficient strategies that usually lead to the correct answer
name the 4 types of heuristics
- availability heuristic
- representativeness heuristic
- affect heuristic
- effort heuristic
describe the availability heuristic
- the ease with which examples come to mind is a proxy for frequency or likelihood
- the ease of remembering X events when recalling X number of events affects judgement
*heuristics can result in errors (ex. frequency of car or plane crashes)
if individuals were asked to either name 5 or 10 times they were assertive, which group would rate themselves as lower in assertiveness?
group that needs to name 10
describe the representative heuristic
- assumption that resemblance to the prototype reflects probability (often relies on the assumption of homogeneity)
ex. man on train professor/farmer
what happens when we learn someone’s category? (representativeness heuristic)
assume a lot about them
ex. assuming a farmer in a suit is going to a formal event
what are “man who” arguments (representativeness heuristic)?
- always hearing about anecdotes
“someone who knows someone who did something” - dominate representation of specific categories when they are exceptions
What is the gambler’s fallacy (representativeness heuristic)?
- expect the thing that hasn’t come up often to show up next
*despite equal 50/50 odds and independent events
define covariation
X and Y covary if the presence/magnitude of X can be predicted by the presence/magnitude of Y (vice versa)
ex. age and university level
what happens when covariations are incorrectly assumed?
causal claims are improperly made
“astrology + personality”
define confirmation bias
tendency to be more alert to evidence that confirms one’s beliefe than to evidence that challenges then
*often used when turning covariations into causal claims
define base rate information
information about how frequently something generally occurs
- statistic
define diagnostic information
does an individual case belong to a category?
when do we use base rates vs diagnostic info?
- if we have base rates alone, we will use them
- if diagnostic info is given, ppl tend to neglect the base rate
define conjunction fallacy (base rates)
the false assumption that a combination of conditions is more likely than either condition by itself
*probability of single thing always more probable than multiple
why do we use heuristics if they often mislead us?
usually they work
define type 1 thinking
fast and automatic thinking
- reliance on heuristics
define type 2 thinking
slower, effortful thinking
- more likely to be correct
how might types of thinking impact performance on the cognitive reflection test?
- will come up with different answers
name the 2 components of reasoning
induction and deduction
