9- Judgement

Question 1

define judgement

Answer 1

the process through which people draw conclusions from the evidence they encounter

Question 2

judgments require _

Answer 2

a frequency estimate

Question 3

instead of good information, what do we rely on to make a judgement? What term describes this?

Answer 3

• rely on easily accessed information
• attribute substitution (make adecision about frequencies without using frequency as supporting evidence)

Question 4

attribute substitutions often rely on info obtained through _?

Answer 4

heuristics

Question 5

define heuristics

Answer 5

efficient strategies that usually lead to the correct answer

Question 6

name the 4 types of heuristics

Answer 6

• availability heuristic
• representativeness heuristic
• affect heuristic
• effort heuristic

Question 7

describe the availability heuristic

Answer 7

• the ease with which examples come to mind is a proxy for frequency or likelihood
• the ease of remembering X events when recalling X number of events affects judgement
  *heuristics can result in errors (ex. frequency of car or plane crashes)

Question 8

if individuals were asked to either name 5 or 10 times they were assertive, which group would rate themselves as lower in assertiveness?

Answer 8

group that needs to name 10

Question 9

describe the representative heuristic

Answer 9

• assumption that resemblance to the prototype reflects probability (often relies on the assumption of homogeneity)
  ex. man on train professor/farmer

Question 10

what happens when we learn someone’s category? (representativeness heuristic)

Answer 10

assume a lot about them
ex. assuming a farmer in a suit is going to a formal event

Question 11

what are “man who” arguments (representativeness heuristic)?

Answer 11

• always hearing about anecdotes
  “someone who knows someone who did something”
• dominate representation of specific categories when they are exceptions

Question 12

What is the gambler’s fallacy (representativeness heuristic)?

Answer 12

• expect the thing that hasn’t come up often to show up next
  *despite equal 50/50 odds and independent events

Question 13

define covariation

Answer 13

X and Y covary if the presence/magnitude of X can be predicted by the presence/magnitude of Y (vice versa)
ex. age and university level

Question 14

what happens when covariations are incorrectly assumed?

Answer 14

causal claims are improperly made
“astrology + personality”

Question 15

define confirmation bias

Answer 15

tendency to be more alert to evidence that confirms one’s beliefe than to evidence that challenges then
*often used when turning covariations into causal claims

Question 16

define base rate information

Answer 16

information about how frequently something generally occurs
- statistic

Question 17

define diagnostic information

Answer 17

does an individual case belong to a category?

Question 18

when do we use base rates vs diagnostic info?

Answer 18

• if we have base rates alone, we will use them
• if diagnostic info is given, ppl tend to neglect the base rate

Question 19

define conjunction fallacy (base rates)

Answer 19

the false assumption that a combination of conditions is more likely than either condition by itself
*probability of single thing always more probable than multiple

Question 20

why do we use heuristics if they often mislead us?

Answer 20

usually they work

Question 21

define type 1 thinking

Answer 21

fast and automatic thinking
- reliance on heuristics

Question 22

define type 2 thinking

Answer 22

slower, effortful thinking
- more likely to be correct

Question 23

how might types of thinking impact performance on the cognitive reflection test?

Answer 23

• will come up with different answers

Question 24

name the 2 components of reasoning

Answer 24

induction and deduction

Question 25

define induction

Answer 25

process through which you forecast about new cases based on observed cases

Question 26

define deduction

Answer 26

process through which you start with “givens” and ask what follows from these premises

Question 27

describe confirmation bias as it pertains to deductive reasoning

Answer 27

a greater sensitivity to confirming evidence and a tendency to neglect disconfirming evidence
*seeking to confirm only rules they were proposing in the number task (given 2 numbers and make up rule)

Question 28

describe disconfirming evidence

Answer 28

unlike confirming evidence, information inconsistent with one’s beliefs is often scrutinized for flaws
ex. gamblers believe their strategy was good but the loss was a “fluke” or “coincidence”

Question 29

define belief perseverance

Answer 29

tendency to maintain a elief even when given undeniable disconfirming evidence

Question 30

how does confirmation bias relate to logic?

Answer 30

confirmation bias suggests a failure to be logical
- can demonstrate using categorical syllogisms and conditional statements

Question 31

define categorical syllogisms

Answer 31

logical arguments containing 2 premises and a conclusion

Question 32

define conditional statement

Answer 32

IF x then Y
- given a condition and decide if a result happens

Question 33

define belief bias

Answer 33

people’s assessment of a syllogism’s conclusion is affected by how consistent the conclusion is with their beliefs
*if conclusion is true alone, might think the syllogism is valid

Question 34

what task was given in class for illogical decisions in conditional statements?

Answer 34

Wason’s 4 card task
“if card has vowel on 1 side, must have an even number on the other side”

Question 35

define utility maximization (decision making)

Answer 35

should be choosing the option with the greatest expected value (balance of costs and benefits)
*decisions often don’t maximize utility

Question 36

define utility

Answer 36

the value that you place on a particular outcome

Question 37

define risk

Answer 37

the probability of a negative outcome

Question 38

describe prospect theory (decision making)

Answer 38

• when evaluating gains, people are risk aversive
• when faced with sure loss, people become risk-seeking

Question 39

depending on how a problem is _, decisions will widely differ

Answer 39

framed

Question 40

name the 5 concepts under “status quo

Answer 40

status quo bias
transaction costs
optimal defaults
endowment effect
sunk cost effect

Question 41

define status quo bias

Answer 41

a preference for the current state of affairs
- ppl don’t want to make a decision that changes thier life
- trying to minimize cost by avoiding and not changing things

Question 42

define transaction costs

Answer 42

time, effort, and resources needed for change

Question 43

define optimal defaults

Answer 43

automatically place people into options that have the greatest benefit
- ex. 401k

Question 44

define the endowment effect

Answer 44

tendency to overvalue what one has in hand
- ex. free thing feels more expensive when we have owned it

Question 45

define sunk cost effect

Answer 45

tendency to continue a task once invesdting time, energy and resources

Question 46

define emotional decisions

Answer 46

• lots of decisions are powerfully influenced by emotions
• people use somatic markers as an indicator of risk
• can predict our future emotions (affective forecasting) to help with decisions

Question 47

describe affective forecasting

Answer 47

-predicting future emotions to help with decisions
- exaggerate how happy or sad we will feel
*valence is usually right but magnitude and duration is wrong